Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Raymer (New Raymer), CO
May 2, 2024 2:45 PM MDT (20:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM Moonset 1:33 PM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 022045 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 245 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated weak showers late this afternoon and evening over the plains, with a slight chance for thunderstorms.
- Another round of showers and storms late Friday/early Saturday.
- Warmer and breezy over the weekend.
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Winds are starting to decrease as the surface gradient and winds aloft decrease. Mixing looks like it will produce lower dew points than earlier expected, so we've trimmed back PoPs for the late afternoon/evening hours. There will likely still be some isolated weak showers, and a thunderstorm isn't out of the question, but it won't be much and should stay east of the Front Range cities.
We'll have enhanced southerly drainage winds off the Palmer Divide later tonight, then southwest winds will increase in all areas during the morning. The previous forecast looks pretty good with gusts of 25-35 mph in most areas in the afternoon. The cold front should be moving across the area before 00z, with similar wind speeds from the north behind the front and temperatures dropping into the 50s. With the cold front moving into dry air, there's still not a lot to work with for convection. There will likely be some showers/storms with the front out near the eastern border, but it's more questionable further west and we've backed off the PoPs a bit. Some increase in mid level moisture and instability should also help promote scattered showers and a few storms over the northern mountains, again with lower chances further south.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
An active weather pattern will continue across the central CONUS over the next several days, though for Colorado this will likely mean more wind than anything else.
We'll start the weekend with mostly dry weather under southwesterly flow aloft. Guidance is in reasonably good agreement with another round of isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers/storms, mainly across the high country into the adjacent plains. With near normal temperatures forecast (highs in the mid/upper 60s), snow levels will remain near or above 10,000ft for the high country.
Sunday should be the warmest day of the extended period as strong southerly flow develops in the warm sector of a broad, strong trough over the western U.S. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 70s across the region. Despite the warmer temperatures, only a few high-based showers/storms expected at this point... as moisture return in our area remains meager.
ECM/GFS ensembles have less than 20% chance of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg anywhere in our forecast area, with surface dew points generally remaining in the low 40s. We'll have to watch trends there, as moisture is the main limiting factor in an otherwise favorable convective environment.
The upper trough is expected to eject from the Four Corners region into the northern Plains by Monday, ushering in cooler temperatures to the region. With the storm track expected to be north of our forecast area, this would suggest some moisture for the mountains and along our northern border, with mostly wind elsewhere.
Wind will be the theme for Tuesday into Wednesday as zonal flow established behind the trough axis. The gradient flow should slowly relax through the week, though there's a decent amount of spread across the multi-model/ensemble suite of guidance. Guidance then hints at a return to a cooler/wetter pattern by the latter half of the week as a broad trough settles over the West. Have kept the current NBM blend that highlights near/below-normal temperatures along with "Chance" PoPs across most of the forecast area by Thursday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
VFR through tonight. HRRR has retreated from its earlier west winds, now holding the current pattern with a bit more east to northeast component in the mid to late afternoon hours. There's still some chance (30%) of an earlier shift to west winds at KBJC in the late afternoon. South winds will increase after 06z at KDEN/KAPA with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Fire danger will increase later this weekend into next week as an extended period of dry and windy conditions develops. Ensemble probabilities of >20kt wind gusts is nearly 100% from Sunday through Wednesday, with 60-100% probabilities of >34kt gusts Monday afternoon according to the 12z ECME. There are still some questions on how low RH dips each day in this period, and additional uncertainty in how dry fuels will get across the driest/windiest areas... but we'll be watching this period for potential highlights as we get closer to the weekend.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 245 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated weak showers late this afternoon and evening over the plains, with a slight chance for thunderstorms.
- Another round of showers and storms late Friday/early Saturday.
- Warmer and breezy over the weekend.
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Winds are starting to decrease as the surface gradient and winds aloft decrease. Mixing looks like it will produce lower dew points than earlier expected, so we've trimmed back PoPs for the late afternoon/evening hours. There will likely still be some isolated weak showers, and a thunderstorm isn't out of the question, but it won't be much and should stay east of the Front Range cities.
We'll have enhanced southerly drainage winds off the Palmer Divide later tonight, then southwest winds will increase in all areas during the morning. The previous forecast looks pretty good with gusts of 25-35 mph in most areas in the afternoon. The cold front should be moving across the area before 00z, with similar wind speeds from the north behind the front and temperatures dropping into the 50s. With the cold front moving into dry air, there's still not a lot to work with for convection. There will likely be some showers/storms with the front out near the eastern border, but it's more questionable further west and we've backed off the PoPs a bit. Some increase in mid level moisture and instability should also help promote scattered showers and a few storms over the northern mountains, again with lower chances further south.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
An active weather pattern will continue across the central CONUS over the next several days, though for Colorado this will likely mean more wind than anything else.
We'll start the weekend with mostly dry weather under southwesterly flow aloft. Guidance is in reasonably good agreement with another round of isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers/storms, mainly across the high country into the adjacent plains. With near normal temperatures forecast (highs in the mid/upper 60s), snow levels will remain near or above 10,000ft for the high country.
Sunday should be the warmest day of the extended period as strong southerly flow develops in the warm sector of a broad, strong trough over the western U.S. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 70s across the region. Despite the warmer temperatures, only a few high-based showers/storms expected at this point... as moisture return in our area remains meager.
ECM/GFS ensembles have less than 20% chance of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg anywhere in our forecast area, with surface dew points generally remaining in the low 40s. We'll have to watch trends there, as moisture is the main limiting factor in an otherwise favorable convective environment.
The upper trough is expected to eject from the Four Corners region into the northern Plains by Monday, ushering in cooler temperatures to the region. With the storm track expected to be north of our forecast area, this would suggest some moisture for the mountains and along our northern border, with mostly wind elsewhere.
Wind will be the theme for Tuesday into Wednesday as zonal flow established behind the trough axis. The gradient flow should slowly relax through the week, though there's a decent amount of spread across the multi-model/ensemble suite of guidance. Guidance then hints at a return to a cooler/wetter pattern by the latter half of the week as a broad trough settles over the West. Have kept the current NBM blend that highlights near/below-normal temperatures along with "Chance" PoPs across most of the forecast area by Thursday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
VFR through tonight. HRRR has retreated from its earlier west winds, now holding the current pattern with a bit more east to northeast component in the mid to late afternoon hours. There's still some chance (30%) of an earlier shift to west winds at KBJC in the late afternoon. South winds will increase after 06z at KDEN/KAPA with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Fire danger will increase later this weekend into next week as an extended period of dry and windy conditions develops. Ensemble probabilities of >20kt wind gusts is nearly 100% from Sunday through Wednesday, with 60-100% probabilities of >34kt gusts Monday afternoon according to the 12z ECME. There are still some questions on how low RH dips each day in this period, and additional uncertainty in how dry fuels will get across the driest/windiest areas... but we'll be watching this period for potential highlights as we get closer to the weekend.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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