Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM   Moonset 1:24 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1047 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1047 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity tonight, pushing east on Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into Friday night. The high moves off the coast Saturday as a cold front approaches. This front moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region.

FXUS61 KOKX 020525 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 125 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity tonight, pushing east on Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into Friday night.
The high moves off the coast Saturday as a cold front approaches. This front moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region. The front moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Forecast remains on track as stratus gradually moves across the region. The stratus is currently over Long Island and NYC and is expected to continue to expand into Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley and northeastern New Jersey.

A nearly stationary frontal boundary remains in the vicinity tonight, though dry conditions should prevail. There may be some weak lift towards morning to account for some drizzle, but right now, think that this will more likely take the form of fog and low clouds. Went with patchy fog, but it could be more widespread for eastern areas as we head toward daybreak.

With clouds in the area tonight and a light southeasterly flow, low temperatures will be just a degree or two above normal for this time of year, in the upper 40s to lower 50s

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Low pressure passes well north of the area Thursday, helping to push the frontal boundary through the forecast area during the day. The low, and associated developing shortwave dive southeast, passing east of the area overnight tonight.
Thereafter, high pressure builds in from southeastern Canada at the surface while a high amplitude ridge over the eastern Great Lakes moves slowly east, but its ridge axis remains just west or begins to enter the forecast area by the daybreak Saturday.
Have gone with a dry forecast based on weak dynamics and track of the low and upper shortwave.

The main forecast challenge will be the high temperatures for Thursday. The area may be warm sectored for a brief time during the day Thursday, and the southwesterly to westerly flow that develops may help to bring in warm temperatures for this time of year. Given previous discussion on how cool NBM has been lately, and looking at NBM probabilities of greater than 75 and then 80 degrees, thinking is that much of New York City and points north and west will see highs in the low 80s, while southern portions of the city much of Long Island, and southeastern Connecticut remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
However, there is a great amount of spread in the NBM, with 15 to as much as 18 degree difference noted between the 25th and 75th percentiles. Therefore, there is a rather large amount of uncertainty with the temperature forecast.

Seasonably warm conditions expected Thursday night with lows generally in the 50s region-wide. Temperatures drop back to near normal on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level ridge over the area Friday night into Saturday, as the flow becomes near zonal into early next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves off shore Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area and moves into the region Wednesday. At the surface high pressure along the northeast and mid Atlantic shifts slowly east into Saturday as a cold front approaches. This front tracks across Sunday night into Monday, and becomes nearly stationary as the flow becomes parallel to the boundary. A period of some heavier showers will be possible Sunday as precipitable water values increase to 1.3 inches. Then Tuesday into Wednesday high pressure builds south from the Hudson Bay region of Canada into the eastern Great Lakes. With a deep low tracking northward from the northern plains into southern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday the stalled cold front will move slowly northward as a warm front. There is uncertainty as to the movement of the front as high pressure, and an upper ridge will be in place. Temperatures Friday night through Sunday will be around 5 degrees above normal, and then Sunday night into Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees above normal. For highs and lows Monday through Wednesday used a blend of NBM and NBM 75th percentile to raise temperatures a few degrees above the NBM.
Depending on the movement of the warm front next week, there is a chance that a few locations will have a record high low Monday night into Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Weak high pressure will remain east of the area, meanwhile, a weak frontal system approaches from the west. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the associated warm front/cold front get through the area on Thursday, which could lead to wind timing and intensity issues. The front may struggle to get east of the coastal terminals.

Mainly IFR to LIFR tonight, with KSWF and KGON still VFR, but likely lowering by 07z. The Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected through the early morning hours Thursday. Improvement to VFR is expected Thursday morning, with the exact timing still in question. It may take into early afternoon across the far eastern terminals to see a return to VFR.

S/SE winds under 10kt through the overnight, then gradually veering from east to west on Thursday as a frontal system attempts to work across the area. The westerly wind shift may remain west of the KLGA and KJFK for much of the day, before going around in the early evening. There is fair amount of uncertainty as to how far east the west winds get on Thursday.
W/NW winds 10-15kt G20kt are possible for those locations that do come around. By late day/early evening, all the terminals should become more northerly/northeasterly.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD expected tonight with changing conditions in low stratus and fog. High confidence in low stratus through the early morning, with lower confidence in fog.

The timing of the wind shift to the W/NW on Thursday could be delayed significantly, especially at KLGA and KJFK where a southerly flow may hold on longer.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR cond in the afternoon, becoming likely late overnight.

Sunday...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
No changes to winds and seas at this time. Stratus has moved over the ocean waters from the east. Patchy fog may develop over the ocean waters later tonight, however, visibilities are expected to remain above 1 nautical mile.

A weak pressure gradient remains in place, with an extended period of conditions below SCA levels tonight through Monday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Democrat Point
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Wed -- 01:08 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:08 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:55 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
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Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Gilgo Heading
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Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:09 AM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:56 PM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:48 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
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Gilgo Heading, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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