Friday, September24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:48PM Friday September 24, 2021 3:13 AM EDT (07:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1000 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Friday...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Numerous showers and chance of tstms late this evening, then showers and scattered tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers and scattered tstms in the morning.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1000 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves across late tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the front late Friday into Saturday. High pressure remains in control through Monday. A cold front is possible on Tue.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 240701 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 301 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A frontal system will pass through the region overnight into Friday, producing a round of unsettled weather across the area. The front will stall to the east on Saturday, as weak low pressure rides north along it. High pressure will then pass to the south from Sunday into Monday. A slow moving cold front will then sink southward through the area Tuesday into early Wednesday. High pressure will then set up to the north during mid week while a broad area of low pressure develops offshore.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Updated weather, clouds, and probabilities of precipitation through Friday morning.

The upr jet will continue to translate nwd into Canada tngt in tandem with the h5 low. The best convective potential is within the area of greatest upr support, which is this eve, coinciding with the passing lljet. After 3-6Z, the best forcing will exit, but falling heights and llvl convergence will still prove favorable for development thru 12Z Fri.

Shwrs and tstms continue to develop across NJ as the whole band pivots newd. Although the main activity for most of the day should stay w of most of the region, redevelopment s of this should continue given the environment. The latest convective development across srn NJ and the Atlc supports this idea.

Pwats were 1.12 inches per the 12Z OKX sounding, but will go up once the mid lvl moisture arrives. The GFS and NAM model it to reach around 2 for the area, which seems reasonable.

Heavy rainfall has been associated with the sys all day, and this threat will continue thru tngt. Where clusters of tstms have been persistent, up to around 4 inches of rain have been estimated by the radar network. A flash flood watch remains in effect for roughly the wrn half of the cwa. Additional information can be found in the hydro section.

It will remain breezy to windy at least into this eve as the lljet passes. H925 winds in the 35-45kt range in the NAM and GFS, with the NAM on the higher end. Difficult to be certain how much the winds will come down after dark given the already mixed environment. The existing wind field will also give a boost to winds in any tstms that develop. There remains a risk of svr due to this, and gusty winds have been included in the fcst. Some llvl backing of the winds may also help to produce quick spinups in the region. Confidence is low due to limited directional shear thru h85. Nonetheless the llvl instability is there and LCLs are modeled blw 500ft. Best chances could be as convection undergoes a resurgence across ern areas towards Fri mrng.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. The frontal boundary will be slow to exit ern portions of the cwa on Fri. The NAM/GFS timing is roughly by 18Z for Montauk and Groton. Shwrs and tstms possible ahead of the front, especially in the mrng with the potential for some pva into the area, the the h5 low is too far away to proved much but falling heights for Fri ngt.

Wrn portions of the cwa are expected to break out of the clouds attm and warm into the 70s. The rest of the area is only expected to come out of the clouds slowly, keeping a lid on aftn high temps.

The NAM and GFS both indicate enough subsidence and drying for Fri ngt to go mainly clr. With lgt winds, went closer to a MET/MAV blend for temps which was colder in the outlying areas than the NBM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As one closed low opens up and lifts into eastern Canada, another will develop over central Canada this weekend, with a trough extending S into the OH valley by Sat Am and becoming negatively tilted. With the front not too far offshore and a weak low rippling NNE along it, expect shower activity out east to increase across Long Island and S CT late day Sat into Sat night. Leaning more toward NAM and 00Z ECMWF idea here as GFS looked too progressive with the front early on.

The trough axis should be just E of the area by Sunday morning, with dry wx returning as flow aloft becomes quasi-zonal and sfc high pressure slides to the south. A cold front will be dropping slowly S toward the area beginning late day Mon. Delayed timing of any associated PoP til late Mon night, and continuing into Tue night until the front finally drops to the south.

Pattern becomes blocky again mid to late next week, with the Northeast under the eastern leg of an omega block developing over North America. In response to this, at the sfc high pressure should set up to the north, while broad low pressure develops over the western Atlantic. Precip with the offshore low may begin to retrograde back into the area late late Thu night.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A cold front, moving through the NYC metro area, will continue to move slowly eastward overnight into Friday, and is expected to be east of KGON Friday afternoon. Weak high pressure builds behind the cold front.

Conditions are mainly VFR, with periods of MVFR in showers. Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly east of the NYC terminals overnight. Showers continue overnight at the NYC metro terminals, and into Friday morning to the east. Showers continue at KGON until mid afternoon Friday.

Wind ahead of the cold front was SE 10 to 15 kt and occasionally gusting up to 25 kt, wind behind the cold front have shifted to the SW to W 10 kt or less, and as the front continues to move east through 14Z winds will shift to the SW to W.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments through the overnight for timing of showers. Amendments also for winds as winds shift to the NW late overnight into Friday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Late Fri night-Mon. VFR. Tue. VFR then possible MVFR in showers during the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Updated the winds and gusts to lower through the overnight for current conditions.

A SCA remains in effect for all waters overnight, then continuing on the ocean until 4Z Sat due to lingering seas. Ocnl gale force gusts are possible thru this eve, especially nearshore where the strongest winds are. Any tstms thru Fri could produce strong winds and isold waterspouts.

Expect mainly quiet conditions through the period. Ocean seas may approach 5 ft late day Sunday into Sunday night as offshore flow increases to near 20 kt, and again Mon night ahead of a slow moving cold front.

HYDROLOGY. In general, around 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected thru Fri. The highest amounts are expected across the wrn half of the area which most has fallen this eve, with additional amounts overnight. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour can be expected in the heaviest activity. Some locally heavier storm totals to 4 inches are possible primarily in the wrn half of the area.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for the wrn half of the area where both the heaviest rain is expected, and the lowest ffg is. The flash flood threat is more isold attm for ern areas, however, at least some minor urban/poor drainage flooding is possible.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Sat-Thu.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A high rip current risk remains thru Fri. There is a moderate rip current risk for Saturday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ009. NY . Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ071- 073>075-177>179. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ . Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.

SYNOPSIS . JMC NEAR TERM . JMC SHORT TERM . JMC LONG TERM . AVIATION . MARINE . JMC HYDROLOGY . JMC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi43 min WNW 12 G 14 66°F 78°F66°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi58 min W 9.7 G 14 65°F 63°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi88 min W 7.8 65°F 62°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi55 min NNE 5.1 G 6 64°F 1015.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi55 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 65°F 76°F1014.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi43 min 14 G 18 71°F1014.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi43 min NW 7.8 G 12 73°F1014.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi55 min 64°F 73°F1015.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi55 min S 8 G 12 71°F 73°F1015.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi55 min NW 12 G 14 63°F 1015.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi55 min NW 12 G 13 65°F 73°F1015.7 hPa
BGNN6 48 mi55 min 63°F 76°F1015.3 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi55 min NW 9.9 G 12

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi20 minWNW 75.00 miRain Fog/Mist63°F61°F93%1015.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi17 minWNW 87.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain65°F65°F100%1014.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi17 minN 09.00 miOvercast74°F70°F88%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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1 day ago--SE7SE9SE11S11S12--S13S12S15S12S14S13S13S12S13SE14SE13SE13SE12SE10SE13SE12SE12
2 days agoNE5NE4NE5NE5E5E5E5E7E8SE12SE8SE11SE11SE8SE9E6E8E8E6Calm--------

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York (2)
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Bay Shore
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Fri -- 12:33 AM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:52 PM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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110.90.70.40.20.100.10.40.60.91110.80.60.40.20.10.10.30.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:19 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:25 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:52 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:49 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.70.30.10.20.51.11.51.92.12.11.81.410.60.30.20.40.81.21.61.81.9

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