Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cozad, NE
May 20, 2024 2:25 AM CDT (07:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 9:01 PM Moonrise 5:21 PM Moonset 3:37 AM |
FXUS63 KGID 200531 AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1231 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorms largely evade south central Nebraska and north central Kansas this evening and overnight, though a brief flare up isolated strong storms can't be ruled out late S of the state line.
- Another round of storms (some severe) is expected on Monday afternoon through Monday night, though details on timing/coverage remain somewhat uncertain. The trend has been for activity to arrive/develop later (near or after sunset).
- Storm chances linger into Tuesday, with conditions trending drier Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Today has been a tricky forecast. As hinted by some of the near-term models, an isolated supercell has developed in northern Kansas. This has turned eastward and is JUST south of our forecast area in Russell County as of 330pm. This storm will be capable of all severe hazards (tornado, wind, very large hail) as it slowly meanders eastward over the next few hours.
In addition to this, convection contuse to develop in southwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. High-resolution models show this activity continuing to develop into one or more west-east propagating squall lines capable of dangerously strong winds (75+ MPH). That said, the WoFS (Warn on Forecast System) has been keeping the bulk of this activity south of our area entirely.
Additional convection over the Nebraska panhandle could push into central Nebraska later this evening, but should be on an overall weakening trend. In fact, some of the latest HRRR runs have this activity completely dissipating before it reaches us.
Monday will bring another risk for severe storms to the area.
There is still plenty uncertainty on exact details regarding coverage and exact location, but it appears that the timing will favor the later side, with some models (notably the NAMnest)
bringing us little to no convection until after midnight. Strong deep-layer shear (40-50kt) will allow for a continued severe threat with any storms that develop into the early morning hours of Tuesday.
A few thunderstorms could redevelop Tuesday morning and early afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty northwest winds will arrive behind this front, and drier conditions are also expected to return Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
The upper pattern remains fairly busy through next weekend, with continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Above-normal precipitation continues to be favored through the Memorial Day weekend before possibly turning a bit drier as we head into June.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Low ceilings and/or visibilities are expected overnight into Monday morning. The timing and ceiling height/visibility are somewhat uncertain. VFR conditions are expected by 19z Monday.
Low ceilings/visibilities are once again possible after 00z Tuesday. Winds will be mostly light and variable. Storms are possible beginning around 00z Tuesday.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1231 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorms largely evade south central Nebraska and north central Kansas this evening and overnight, though a brief flare up isolated strong storms can't be ruled out late S of the state line.
- Another round of storms (some severe) is expected on Monday afternoon through Monday night, though details on timing/coverage remain somewhat uncertain. The trend has been for activity to arrive/develop later (near or after sunset).
- Storm chances linger into Tuesday, with conditions trending drier Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Today has been a tricky forecast. As hinted by some of the near-term models, an isolated supercell has developed in northern Kansas. This has turned eastward and is JUST south of our forecast area in Russell County as of 330pm. This storm will be capable of all severe hazards (tornado, wind, very large hail) as it slowly meanders eastward over the next few hours.
In addition to this, convection contuse to develop in southwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. High-resolution models show this activity continuing to develop into one or more west-east propagating squall lines capable of dangerously strong winds (75+ MPH). That said, the WoFS (Warn on Forecast System) has been keeping the bulk of this activity south of our area entirely.
Additional convection over the Nebraska panhandle could push into central Nebraska later this evening, but should be on an overall weakening trend. In fact, some of the latest HRRR runs have this activity completely dissipating before it reaches us.
Monday will bring another risk for severe storms to the area.
There is still plenty uncertainty on exact details regarding coverage and exact location, but it appears that the timing will favor the later side, with some models (notably the NAMnest)
bringing us little to no convection until after midnight. Strong deep-layer shear (40-50kt) will allow for a continued severe threat with any storms that develop into the early morning hours of Tuesday.
A few thunderstorms could redevelop Tuesday morning and early afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty northwest winds will arrive behind this front, and drier conditions are also expected to return Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
The upper pattern remains fairly busy through next weekend, with continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Above-normal precipitation continues to be favored through the Memorial Day weekend before possibly turning a bit drier as we head into June.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Low ceilings and/or visibilities are expected overnight into Monday morning. The timing and ceiling height/visibility are somewhat uncertain. VFR conditions are expected by 19z Monday.
Low ceilings/visibilities are once again possible after 00z Tuesday. Winds will be mostly light and variable. Storms are possible beginning around 00z Tuesday.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLXN JIM KELLY FIELD,NE | 12 sm | 30 min | calm | 3/4 sm | -- | Mist | 59°F | 57°F | 94% | 29.78 |
Grand Island, NE,
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