Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ranshaw, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:54PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:57 AM EDT (04:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 1:24PM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1035 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and tstms.
Tue night..N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will then build southward toward the waters through the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ranshaw, PA
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location: 40.77, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 280321 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1121 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. An approaching cold front will bring a couple of showers/isolated thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday evening. A dry and seasonal weather pattern is expected for the rest of the week with some chilly nights as the calendar flips from September to October.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. An amplifying upper level trough will push a cold front into northwest Pa toward dawn. Low level moisture advection along potent low level jet, in tandem with falling heights ahead of upper trough, will support developing convection across the area overnight. Model soundings show MUCAPE of 1000+ j/kg rooted close to 850mb by late tonight. This setup may prove favorable for elevated t-storm development after 06Z with a low risk of isolated marginally severe hail. SPC MRGL risk (5% hail prob) extends from the Laurel Highlands into the central mountains late tonight. An active southwest breeze and increasing clouds ahead of the front will keep temps from falling much tonight. MinTs in the upper 50s to low 60s early Tuesday morning will be the warmest all week.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. There is good agreement among near term models that a lead vort max will push through the southeast half of the forecast area between 12Z-16Z. Thus expect first batch of showers and possible tstorms to push through this area during the mid to late morning hours. Behind this feature, another round of convection will be possible along the cold front, as it pushes from the central mountains around 18Z to the southern tier counties by early evening.

Models indicate there will be a good deal of cloudiness over much of central Pa, inhibiting instability and convective potential Tuesday afternoon. However, breaks in the cloud cover appear likely over the southern tier of the state, where a few strong tstorms are possible during the afternoon or early evening. Conditions should dry out from northwest to southeast by Tuesday evening. Highs will vary from the 60s in the northern tier to the upper 70s in the south central valleys.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Lingering light showers and storms will be possible along the PA/MD border as the cold front sags south Tuesday evening.

The cold front will exit our area by Wednesday and Canadian surface high pressure builds in. Seasonable to slightly below average temperatures, NW flow, and mostly sunny skies are likely from Wednesday to Saturday. Temperatures these nights will be on the chilly side, and we could very well dip into the 30s across the Northern Mountains with radiational cooling under clear skies. The coldest night should be Thursday night, when surface high builds over the area. Wouldn't be surprised to see the first frost of the season Friday morning in the cooler valleys of the Alleghenies.

Models are coming to somewhat more of a consensus on the evolution and positioning of an upper level low over New England mid-late next week. The low will most likely linger over New Brunswick/Northern New England through early next week. During this time a surface low develops over the central US and will begin to track towards our area by late weekend/early next week. Still lots of uncertainty this far out but at least chance POPs by late this upcoming weekend and early next week.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. TAFS in good shape as of 11 PM. I been watching the radar to the west since late this aft. A few bands of showers over eastern Ohio, now starting to move into far western PA. Winds have weaken across the region, given the time of day and year.

Earlier discussion below.

Kept LLWS in the fcst tonight into early Tuesday as westerly LLJ increases to 40+ kts. A cold front pushing slowly southeast from the Lower Great Lakes will trigger showers and a few t-storms late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Expect sub-VFR conditions along and behind the front over the northwest 1/2 of the airspace into early Tuesday with some marginal improvement likely by tomorrow afternoon. Greatest risk of t-storm impacts appears to be over the southwest airspace overnight/early Tuesday morning and southeast airspace Tuesday afternoon. Return to VFR conditions later tomorrow afternoon and evening after showers and thunderstorms clear out.

Outlook .

Wed-Fri . AM valley fog, then VFR.

CLIMATE. Harrisburg's latest 90-degree day on record is Oct. 7 in the 1941. With summer in the rearview mirror and given the fall pattern going forward, it's probably safe to say that there won't be any more 90 degree days this year.

So in 2021, Harrisburg likely finishes with 34 days where the maximum temperature was >= 90F. That ties 2010 and 1955 with the 14th highest on record. The top 3 are 1966 (60), 1944 (48), and 1943 (46). h/t @ajuklo for the callout on Twitter.

More interestingly, 2021 currently ranks 2nd for the number of days with minimum temperatures >= 70F in Harrisburg. The top 3 are 2020 (50), 2021 (48), and 2016 (42). 8 of the top 10 years are in the 2000s Those warm summer nights.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Fitzgerald SHORT TERM . Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM . Fitzgerald/Wagner AVIATION . Steinbugl/Martin/Gutierrez CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 88 mi58 min 69°F 72°F1012.3 hPa (+0.0)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 92 mi58 min 69°F 69°F1012.3 hPa (+0.0)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 93 mi58 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 66°F 73°F1013 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selinsgrove Penn Valley Airport, PA19 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair57°F55°F93%1011.6 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA23 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F88%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSEG

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1 day ago6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3--W6W7W7W7W63CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE7S8SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Tue -- 04:24 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:56 PM EDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:18 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 10:56 PM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.53.13.33.33.22.92.62.321.81.61.61.722.22.121.71.41.210.9

Tide / Current Tables for Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware
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Millside
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Tue -- 12:47 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:25 PM EDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.11.72.83.84.54.84.64321.3111.62.94.35.15.45.44.9432.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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