Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 1:43 AM   Moonset 11:21 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 815 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night. Mon - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.

ANZ500 815 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will move south and east of the waters today. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another slow moving front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Unsettled conditions look to linger over the waters heading into early next week as additional fronts move through. Small craft advisories may be needed on both Friday and Saturday.

FXUS61 KCTP 012350 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A cold front, stretching from Western Lk Erie to Southern Indiana at 23Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight.
However, the parent shortwave and best forcing will pass well north of the state and moisture return ahead of the front is meager. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the northern counties.

Large dewpoint depressions going into the evening, combined with a light southwest breeze, will likely preclude fog formation. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
The dying cold front is progged to settle to just south of the Mason Dixon Line by Thursday afternoon, as the associated shortwave passes off the New Eng coast and upper level ridging builds over PA. Low-pwat air flowing into the state should result in mainly sunny skies and modeled 850mb temps of 12-14C translate to expected highs ranging from the mid 70s over the N Mtn, to the mid 80s in the southern valleys, some 10-15 degrees above average for early May. Low level convergence and higher humidity is noted in the vicinity of the front over the southern tier Thursday afternoon. However, a weak capping inversion and very dry air above 800mb suggests any convection is very unlikely.

Very dry air above a weak inversion in the forecast soundings support undercutting NBM dewpoints Thursday afternoon over the central and northern part of the forecast area. We've used a blend of the NBM and the much lower numbers obtained from the MixedDewpoint Tool.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Thursday night will remain dry and mild. Easterly flow begins to take hold on Friday, as high pressure noses down the eastside of the Appalachians. This should result in cooler temperatures Friday, especially across eastern PA. This setup could also favor low clouds into the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley Friday night into Sat AM.

A frontal boundary will slowly make it's way eastward from the Midwest into the Commonwealth Saturday into Sunday, accompanied by showers and storms.

Passage of the upper trough and associated front should bring drier conditions by Monday of next week, before an approaching warm front looks to bring increasing likelihood for a return of clouds and showers/storms for Tuesday and now Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
There could be a few high and mid-level clouds passing overhead overnight, as a weak area of low pressure passes to our north and pushes a weak/dry cold front into the area. A light SWerly breeze (5-10 kts) will persist across the western highlands overnight, while winds should largely become light/variable southeast of the Allegheny Front. There could be a bit of valley fog in the central valleys, and have maintained a hint of this in the IPT TAF.

An upper ridge will build overhead on Thursday, producing a sunny day with widespread VFR conds. Sfc winds will become NWerly, and could gust 15-20 kts by aftn.

Outlook...

Thu night-Fri AM...Predominantly VFR.

Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east w/ brief reductions possible.

Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected. Reductions likely.

Mon...AM fog/clouds poss W. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations on Monday:

SITE 2024 OBS PRVS RECORD Altoona 86F 83F (1956)
Bradford 82F 76F (1984)
Williamsport 89F 86F (1942/1974)

It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year, almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May 11th).

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:54 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:40 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:14 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Millside
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 12:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 PM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware, Tide feet

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