Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stansbury Park, UT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:18PM Monday September 27, 2021 9:31 PM MDT (03:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 12:56PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stansbury Park, UT
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location: 40.78, -112.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 272149 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 349 PM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cut-off upper level low will gradually shift eastward across the Desert Southwest today. A strong cold front will cross the state Tuesday into early Wednesday bringing unsettled conditions and much colder temperatures. A gradual warming trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM MDT Thursday). A closed upper level low can be seen centered over eastern New Mexico early this afternoon, while a neutrally tilted trough approaches the PacNW region. Much of northern Utah remains sandwiched in a col, or a region of relative lull, in between these two features. The northern fringes of deeper moisture are sufficient enough across southern Utah this afternoon to aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, when combined with the aid of terrain and daytime heating. Showers and thunderstorms are drifting ever so slowly off to the south and west early this afternoon, and a heavy rainfall threat remains possible under the strongest cores. Gusty outflow winds will also remain a threat with any shower and thunderstorm activity. CAPE values are modestly higher when compared to yesterday, owing to slightly better moisture quality. Given the weakly sheared environment, updraft maintenance will remain a challenge once convection propagates off of terrain, except where cold pools briefly combine. Given increasingly large- scale lift owing to the approaching trough, shower and thunderstorm activity may have some semblance of staying power, and may persist until closer to midnight if not just beyond, while exhibiting gradual weakening.

Meanwhile, an approaching low pressure trough will continue to propagate eastward across the Northern Rockies through Tuesday. This will drag an attendant surface front across northern Utah and SW Wyoming during the morning. The front will continue to sag southward through the day, clearing central Utah during the evening, and finally crossing southern Utah by late Wednesday morning. As the trough axis crosses the Northern Rockies, it will begin to shear out, and as such the most robust dynamics to help force precipitation with it. An exception will be a trailing shortwave and jetlet which are forecast to dive into southern Nevada by late-day Tuesday and track eastward across southern Utah through Wednesday. These features will interact with the antecedent frontal boundary and aid in the development of showers across central Utah as we head through Tuesday morning, and especially by afternoon. Lingering instability will aid in the development of isolated showers as well. The leading edge of this activity will slowly sag southward through southern Utah Tuesday night. With the combination of the slowed forward progression of the front and dynamics associated with the trailing trough features, shower generation is expected to continue Wednesday, mainly along and south/east of an Evanston to Provo to Beaver to St. George line. This activity should gradually diminish Wednesday night with the loss of both daytime heating and dynamics.

Temperatures will drop about 10 degrees from today to Wednesday behind the front, and 10 to 20 degrees across northern Utah behind the front. Temperatures will be cold enough to promote frost and freeze conditions in many northern valleys and high elevation valleys both Wednesday and Thursday morning. This may necessitate a freeze headline for the Cache Valley both mornings. Temperatures should remain sufficiently warm to prevent frost in the SLC metro as well as the Utah valley.

Flow throughout much of the column will gradually become southwesterly in the pre-frontal airmass, and a consequence of this will be gradually increasing smoke concentrations across central and northern Utah per the HRRR smoke model. Smoke concentrations are forecast to gradually lessen through Tuesday afternoon in the post-frontal northwesterly flow-driven airmass.

LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM MDT Thursday). As the trough axis moves east of the forecast area, models indicate a high likelihood that the southern edge will split and form a closed low over the Arizona/New Mexico border by Friday morning. While models are uncertain as to the depth and progression of the cutoff low, what is clear is that this feature should remain far enough east that little moisture will be advected into the region under its influence. Thus, PoPs are appropriately low, with a slight chance of mountain showers in the southeastern portion of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday afternoons. No accumulating precipitation is expected and increased cloud cover with virga is more likely than any impactful weather.

Temperatures will rebound slowly from the chilly departures from normal on Wednesday, and this slight warming trend will continue throughout the weekend. This trend will take daytime highs from around 5-10 degrees below normal on Thursday to near normal by the start of next week. The overwhelming consensus is that ridging will return to the Great Basin by Sunday, which would bring dry conditions and warming temperatures across the forecast area.

There is the potential for precipitation chances to increase with a developing trough to the north of the forecast area by late Sunday or early Monday. At this time, this solution is a very low probability outcome, with few enough members onboard that there is no notable signature in the ensemble forecast clusters. However, this will be a feature to watch as the pattern appears to remain active beyond the extended forecast period.

AVIATION. KSLC . Northwest winds are expected to switch to the southeast around 03Z. Clouds will be increasing going into Tuesday with a cold front approaching. That front is expected to move through around 14Z, switching winds back to northwest. Gusts over 25 knots are expected after the front moves through. This will be a relatively dry front, with only an isolated rain shower expected through 03Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING . A cold front moving through southwest Wyoming and northern Utah Tuesday morning will result in gusty northwest winds reaching over 25 knots. Ahead of the front, southwest winds gusting over 20 knots are expected in southern Utah Tuesday afternoon. Largely dry conditions are expected through the day. Later Tuesday into Wednesday, scattered rain showers are expected for southwest Wyoming and much of Utah.

FIRE WEATHER. An area of low pressure will continue slowly drift northward from the four-corners into Colorado through tomorrow. Increasing humidity is expected across the southern third of Utah associated with this system through this time. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening and tend to move toward the south to southwest. Given the relatively dry low levels, gusty and erratic microburst winds will be possible along with isolated locally heavy rain under the strongest of the storms.

A strong cold front will cross the state from the northwest to southeast Tuesday into early Wednesday. This cold front will bring unsettled conditions to Utah Tuesday into Wednesday, with isolated to scattered showers expected to develop in association with the front. Precipitation will develop gradually through the late morning hours with precipitation becoming most widespread by Tuesday afternoon. The best chance of precipitation during this time is expected within a NE-SW oriented corridor from the Unitas SW to near Callao and from Enterprise east to near Hanksville. The southern edge of the band of showers will gradually sink southward Tuesday evening and overnight while remaining in place farther north. Drier air will gradually filter southward by late Wednesday, ending precipitation chances from north to south.

Temperatures will cool 10-20 degrees from today to Wednesday behind the front and will remain below normal through Friday. Snow levels will lower sufficiently across the northern and central mountains for light snow accumulations Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly in the High Uintas. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the front will quickly turn to the northwest behind the front.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible across portions of southern and eastern Utah during the Thursday-Saturday timeframe as modest lingering moisture combines with a couple of weak, passing disturbances.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . None. WY . None.

ADeSmet/Wessler/Wilson

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salt Lake City, Salt Lake City International Airport, UT17 mi38 minSE 710.00 miFair73°F39°F29%1005.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLC

Wind History from SLC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE7SE7SE8SE7SE7SE6E5SE8SE8SE4SE6SE6S8E6CalmCalmNW10NW6NW6NW9NW6W4SE7
1 day agoS6SE10SE8SE7SE6SE7SE6SE8SE8SE9SE4SE5SE8SE3E4CalmW5NW5N6N6NW6NW6N7S7
2 days agoSE4S5SE5SE5SE6SE7SE7SE5SE6SE10SE9SE10SE9SE6S7S64CalmN8N11N10N8N8Calm

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