Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:46 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 330 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early this evening, then showers likely late this evening and overnight. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms.Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 330 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure continues to slide offshore tonight, with a warm front approaching tonight and moving north on Sunday. A weak trough moves through Sunday night, with high pressure briefly building in Monday morning. A back door cold front moves through Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A frontal system approaches from the west and moves through the area Tuesday afternoon and night. High pressure then builds in for the middle of the week before another frontal system potentially impacts the area to close out the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 271958 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 358 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure continues to slide offshore tonight, with a warm front approaching tonight and moving north on Sunday. A weak trough moves through Sunday Night, with high pressure briefly building in Monday morning. A back door cold front moves through Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A frontal system approaches from the west and moves through the area Tuesday afternoon and night. High pressure then builds in for the middle of the week before another frontal system potentially affects the area to close out the week.



NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Upper ridge axis continues to nudge into the region tonight. At the same time, good agreement in shortwave energy over the northern plains this afternoon shearing through Ontario and into western Quebec tonight. At the surface, the high pressure, centered just S/SE of the area, will slide farther SE tonight. Meanwhile, weak low pressure tracks NE through Ontario into Quebec tonight with associated weakening warm front approaching tonight and lifting NE of the area Sunday AM.

Initial band of showers, just west of the region this aft, should mainly dissipate late this aft/early eve as it moves into the western 1/4 of the area, with lack of upper support and running into in-situ surface ridging. Cloud cover will increase through this evening, with an isolated to scattered shower threat for NYC and points N&W thru early eve.

Models continue in good agreement in a period of showers late this evening into the overnight ahead/along warm front in response to approaching left front quad of ULJ streak, shortwave energy rounding ridge axis and theta-e advection of 1 1/2 to 2 std PWAT airmass.
Lift and moisture is modest with instability lacking, so shower activity should be generally light to moderate. Highest prob across interior and eastern areas around periphery of ridge axis.

WAA and cloud cover will have temps noticeably milder then the last few nights, with lows generally in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper ridge axis remains fairly stationary just to the west of the region Sunday thru Monday, while a northern stream shortwave digs into SE Canada. Weak shortwave forcing rounding the upper ridge slides east Sunday morning, with another train of vorts/weak shortwave approaching late Sun and tracking across northern and eastern portions of the region Sunday night.

At the surface, warm front dissipates overhead or lifts north Sun AM, ending shower threat. Weak surface troughing appears to linger over the area, with more distinct pre-frontal approaching late in the day and crossing Sunday Night. Ahead of this, the region becomes warm sectored Sunday with temps moderating to above seasonable levels with strong waa aloft, but still model spread on max temps dependent on cloud cover, seabreeze timing, and depth of mixing. Interestingly, deterministic NBM temps (bias corrected and MAE weighted model blend) are generally running close to the 10th-25th percentile of the NBM ensemble spread (raw model and MOS inputs). Will lean towards a blend of deterministic and 50th percentile of NBM, with potential for temps to be several degrees warmer than forecast across NYC/NJ metro and interior with breaks in cloud cover and remaining north and west of the synoptically enhanced seabreeze along the coast. There appears to be an opportunity for a period of partly to mostly sunny skies between the Sun AM strato-cu dissipating and ahead of increasing high/mid deck in mid-late aft.

Pre-frontal trough approaches late Sunday and passes thru Sunday night. Not a tremendous amount of forcing, but combo of vorts moving through aloft and surface trough moving through in a 2 to 2 1/2 std PWAT airmass (weakly unstable across far western areas) support potential for scattered showers. Low prob for a thunderstorm Sun eve across far NW areas of the region

The passage of the surface trough Sunday night leaves behind a deep W/NW flow Monday morning, which should allow for rapid drying and deep mixing to at least 850mb (temps of 13-14C). Still quite a bit of spread on how high max temperatures could reach based on timing of a backdoor cold front in the afternoon. Once again, deterministic NBM temps are generally running close to the 10th-25th percentile of the NBM ensemble spread. Based on favorable heating conditions for at least the first half of the day will ride closer to 50th percentile. This supports potential for summerlike conditions (warmest day so far this Spring) with widespread temps in the lower to mid 80s. Potential for temps to be a few degrees warmer than forecast if cold frontal timing is slower, with a few spots making a run at record highs for the day (mid to upper 80s).

Backdoor cold front could spark an isolated shra or trsa late Mon/Mon eve across western portions of the Tri-State with some weak instability and moisture pooling.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
*Key Points*

*Cooler conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, but still above normal. A slight warmup then for week's end.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during the period.

Upper ridging along the eastern seaboard weakens while moving out into the Atlantic on Tuesday. At the same time, a weakening frontal system on the backside of the ridge moves into the area with a chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/night.
Not expecting strong and/or severe convection with weak instability and an easterly flow. Ridge then is forecast to amplify over the eastern third of the country Wednesday into Thursday, more so than what we saw 24 hours ago.
Mainly dry conditions during this time once any lingering rain exits the area Wednesday morning. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the intermountain west Wednesday into Thursday, then up into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This will send another weakening frontal into the area to close out the week.

As for temperatures, an easterly flow on Tuesday following a backdoor cold front will return highs closer to normal. The trend in the NBM and much of the 12Z guidance has been cooler for that day. A gradual warmup can then be expected for the rest of the week with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal along the coast, but to 5 to 10 degrees inland. Chance of rain and cloud cover Saturday knocks temps down a bit.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure shifts east as a warm front approaches tonight, lifting through the region into Sunday morning.

VFR thru the rest of the day, before becoming MVFR or lower with scattered showers and potential mist overnight into Sunday AM.

Southerly flow 10 to 15 kt with gusts into the low 20 kts into early evening before lightening. Cigs lower with showers possible for western terminals toward or just after 00Z Sun. Showers increase in coverage after 3Z, falling intermittently thru about 12Z before drying out with slow improvement to VFR into the early afternoon.
IFR cigs possible at times in the morning hours, especially at KSWF, KHPN, KBDR, and KGON, but can't be ruled out elsewhere.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SHRA and MVFR conditions tonight may be off by a couple of hours.

IFR cigs possible Sunday AM.

Improvement to VFR on Sunday may be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday PM: Return to VFR by afternoon. Light SW flow.

Monday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through the weekend under a weak pressure gradient regime. Coastal jet thru this will bring marginal SCA wind gusts (20- 25kt) near the entrance to the NY Harbor.

Much of next week looks to be below sub-SCA with a weak flow across the waters. Potential fog development due to warmer air moving over the colder waters (SSTs near 50F) early next week, but still too early for any specific details on timing and extent.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Moriches Inlet
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Sat -- 03:52 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:50 AM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:59 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Sat -- 12:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:33 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:33 PM EDT     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:50 PM EDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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