Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brentwood, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:14PM Friday October 15, 2021 10:52 PM EDT (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:21PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1030 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Saturday through Saturday evening...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of sprinkles in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of sprinkles in the evening.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of sprinkles in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of sprinkles in the evening.
Tue..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1030 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues moving offshore tonight ahead of an approaching frontal system. The associated cold front will then pass through area late Saturday afternoon and evening. High pressure then returns into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brentwood, NY
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location: 40.81, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 160235 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1035 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues moving offshore tonight ahead of an approaching frontal system. The associated cold front will then pass through area late Saturday afternoon and evening. A seasonal airmass will build in for the beginning of next week. A warming trend will follow.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. The forecast was updated to delay onset of potential showers well NW of the city by a few hours, otherwise the hourly forecast was adjusted for a few elements based on the latest trends.

High pressure remains over the eastern seaboard this evening before shifting offshore tonight. An upper ridge axis will also slide offshore as an amplifying longwave trough slowly approaches. Its associated frontal system approaches into Saturday morning. Warm advection ahead of the system may bring an increase in middle and high level moisture overnight, especially north and west of NYC and the coast. A light and brief shower cannot be completely ruled out across Orange County due to the warm advection and weak lift northwest of the CWA. Otherwise, it will remain dry tonight with mild temperatures mainly in the 60s.

There is some uncertainty regarding any low cloud development overnight, specifically near the coast. There is a chance, especially across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut, but think the stronger low level flow may inhibit anything more than some pockets of SCT-BKN stratus..

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Attention on Saturday turns to the approaching frontal system. The region will lie firmly within the warm sector. Southerly winds ramp up during the morning and we should see sustained winds 15 to around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. The strongest winds will be along the coast. A relatively strong low level jet will also help maintain a warm airmass over the area. Strong mixing should help provide some sun in the morning in the early afternoon, helping temperatures warm well into the 70s. The strong onshore flow should limit how high temperatures get over Long Island and Connecticut, but some NYC and NE NJ locations could again touch or exceed 80 degrees. However, think temperatures should fall short of records (see climate section below).

The morning and early afternoon should be dry before the cold front begins reaching the region middle to late afternoon. The models continue to be in good agreement on the overall timing and evolution of the system. Have elected to follow the timing of the 12z CAMs, which brings the front into the Lower Hudson Valley and northeast New Jersey about 3pm-5pm, the Hudson River Corridor and NYC metro about 5pm-7pm, and Long Island and Connecticut about 7pm-9pm. Low level lapse rates are weak and instability is marginal, generally around 500 J/kg mainly west of NYC and points north and west. Instability is much lower further east across LI and CT. The convective line should be strongest as it enters the Lower Hudson Valley/interior NE NJ, weakening as it moves across the NYC metro and Hudson River corridor. Many of the CAMs show the line diminishing further as it enters the more stable coastal environment. SPC has maintained a marginal risk with the threat of isolated damaging wind gusts. Based on the aforementioned mesoscale environment, the strong to severe thunderstorm risk mainly lies north and west of the NYC metro. The convective line will be accompanied by a wind shift to the west and could still see gusty winds as this occurs, but they should be sub severe and isolated, generally 35 to 45 mph. The gusty winds should subside shortly after the frontal passage as the low levels start to cool and stabilize further.

The front and associated upper trough are progressive, limited the amount of rainfall. The heaviest rain should occur along the narrow convective line, which could put down a quick quarter inch in spots. Large scale lift immediately behind the front supports some lingering showers a few hours after the frontal passage. The weakening of the line as it moves over the coastal environment should also limit the rainfall amounts. Average amounts of a quarter to half inch, highest across the northwest interior are forecast.

The front moves offshore in the evening with any lingering post frontal showers ending by midnight. Conditions will improve overnight with cooler and drier air advecting into the area. Lows should range from the upper 40s to around 50 inland to the middle 50s near the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cooler airmass builds in for the Sun-Mon time period. H85 temps drop to around 2-3C Sun, and to around 1C on Mon. By the 00Z Tue balloon flight, H85 may be 0C. The wly component flow will be conducive to deep mixing thru the period however, so high temps are fcst to be close to normal for Sun and Mon. Mon looks to be the best shot for highs to be blw normal. With the winds keeping up at least a little at ngt, did not stray from the milder NBM numbers. If decoupling occurs Sun or Mon ngt, temps will be several degrees blw what is currently fcst. In addition to temps and wind, a few shwrs or sprinkles are possible Sun and Mon with cyclonic flow aloft and steep lapse rates. NBM pops indicate dry wx thru the period, but based on the setup, chances for sprinkles have been included in the fcst. Best window is during peak aftn heating each day with perhaps some residual stragglers in the early eve. Regardless of pcpn chances, an extensive cu field should develop both days in the aftn.

Heights increase Tue, eliminating pcpn chances and allowing for warmer temps. Wed still looks dry, although the ECMWF suggests the H5 trof over the maritimes will drift far enough swd to allow for isold shwrs Wed eve. Confidence in this scenario is very low, and the blended approach was followed resulting in a dry fcst Wed and Wed ngt.

Thu looks dry with increasing sly flow ahead of the next cold front. The fropa is timed for Fri per the GFS and ECMWF. Low chances for shwrs have been included in the fcst.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Weak high pressure will be in place through Saturday morning, then a cold front moves through Saturday afternoon to evening.

VFR through much of the period. MVFR/IFR ceilings may work its way back into KGON at times.

Generally S winds tonight less than 10kts. Wind speed increases tomorrow morning to 10-20kts with gusts upwards of 25-30 kts possible with the highest potential along coastal terminals. Showers ahead of an approaching cold front will be possible after 19Z for western areas. TSRA is possible 19-23Z.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Timing of start of gusts tomorrow may be off by 1 or 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday night. Lingering -shra possible early, otherwise VFR. Sunday and Monday. VFR. W to NW winds G20-25kt mainly daytime/eve. Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Southerly winds increase late tonight into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. The SCA remains in effect for all waters on Saturday with southerly gusts of 25-30 kt. An isolated gust to gale force is possible, especially nearshore. Winds on the non-ocean waters should weaken Saturday evening behind the cold front passage, but 25 kt gusts are still possible on the ocean. Seas will gradually subside below 5 ft late Saturday night.

Gusty wnw flow kicks in on Sun behind the cdfnt. A sca will likely be needed thru Mon as a result, especially on the ocean. Conditions may remain close to advy lvls on Tue with low pres near the maritimes and high pres over the sern conus. Winds and seas subside on Wed as high pres builds in.

HYDROLOGY. Average rainfall late Saturday afternoon and evening is one quarter to one half inch. The WPC PQPF 90th percentile 24-hr QPF ending Sunday morning still shows worst-case potential between 1/2 to 3/4 inches of rain NW of NYC, so localized minor issues cannot be ruled out. No flash flooding is expected due to the progressive nature of the system.

Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

CLIMATE. Temperatures on Saturday will be unseasonably warm, and may approach these record highs:

Sat 10/16

EWR: 86/1956 BDR: 80/1975 NYC: 84/1956 LGA: 82/1958 JFK: 79/2008 ISP: 80/1963

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 13 mi67 min S 9.7G12 69°F 78°F67°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 19 mi67 min S 5.8G9.7 70°F 63°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 24 mi67 min S 7.8G9.7 70°F 64°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 26 mi58 min S 2.9G4.1 68°F 70°F1011.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi58 min SSW 7G8.9 69°F 1012.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi42 min S 12G14 69°F1011.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi58 min S 4.1G5.1 68°F 69°F1012.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 39 mi42 min 9.7G12 68°F1011.8 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 40 mi112 min S 12G14 69°F 69°F1 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 40 mi58 min 71°F 69°F1012 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi58 min SSE 6G8 70°F 1011.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi58 min SSW 7G8.9 71°F 69°F1012.2 hPa
BGNN6 47 mi58 min 72°F 72°F1011.4 hPa
MHRN6 48 mi58 min S 8G12

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi59 minS 710.00 miFair68°F63°F84%1012.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi56 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F65°F93%1012.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY22 mi56 minSSE 510.00 miFair67°F63°F87%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW3NW400N3N3N30004S5S5S7SW6S8S9S9S10S7S7S7S7
1 day ago00000W3NW300W3N6N12
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2 days ago0NE4000000000SE3S45S8SW9SW7SW8SW5SW5S3SW4SW40

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northport
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     7.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:13 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     7.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:33 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:22 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:57 PM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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