Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 11:36 PM   Moonset 7:18 AM

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LEZ147 Expires:202404271415;;450980 Fzus51 Kcle 270752 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 352 am edt Sat apr 27 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-271415- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 352 am edt Sat apr 27 2024
Today - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 271816 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 216 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperature is expected through much of the upcoming week while precipitation will be periodic but mainly focused on Tuesday and the later half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening, favoring northwest PA.

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The main convective line will shortly exit east of the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough, with the surface warm front lifting northeast shortly after precipitation ends.

Strong warm advection is expected behind the warm front as height rises begin aloft, while sun will periodic peak out amidst area cloud cover. Hi-res models have become more bullish on low probability showers and thunderstorms developing between 4pm-8pm across the region before ridging develops overhead; sfc heating and residual boundary layer moisture may allow for a few hour window of 200-500 J/KG CAPE and ~30kts shear in conjunction with residual jet-aided ascent may be enough to create isolated convection. No severe threat is anticipated.

The overnight period will be primarily dry and warm as the gulf coast airmass settles into the region and ridge sets up overhead. The exception is for northwest PA where embedded shortwaves may traverses the ridge axis and provide enough ascent along the nearby warm front to produce nocturnal convection.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near record high max temperature Monday and high min temperature Tuesday are each possible.
- Diurnally driven convection mainly confined to northwest PA.

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Further amplification of the southeast ridge in response to a digging Central Plains trough is expected Sunday into Monday.
High pressure centered over the Carolinas will maintain warm advection for the Upper Ohio River Valley region, driving area temperature well above the daily averages. Afternoon temperature will peak Monday and could pose potential to break some daily high records at area climate sites; specifically for KPIT, current ensemble model guidance suggests a 40% probability of tying or breaking the record of 88 deg F set back in 1899 (near 100% probability of exceeding the 81 deg record at KPIT if only looking since 1950). Approach of the upper trough Monday night will increase moist advection aloft, increasing cloud cover that insulate surface temperature. Once again, this combination could put many area climate records for high minimum temperature heading into Tuesday morning. See the climate section below for more details.

Subsidence underneath the ridge axis will support dry conditions through this period. The exception is the low probability for diurnally driven convection for portions of northwest PA each afternoon (Sunday/Monday) as weak embedded shortwaves rotating over the ridge axis may provide enough lift for initiation (along the surface destabilization). Sunday appears the more likely of the two afternoons due to slightly cooler air present aloft leading to slightly higher SBCAPE (approaching 1000 J/kg).
Weak shear and the low CAPE values should minimize any severe risk for any storms that do develop.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through next week with above- average temperatures favored.

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The Central Plains trough will lift northward through the western Great Lakes late Monday, with a shortwave rounding its based expected to move eastward through the Upper Ohio River Valley Tuesday. This movement will push a weak surface cold front eastward, creating a loosely organized line of showers and thunderstorms through the region starting Tuesday morning. Cloud cover and storm timing will limit instability ahead of the convection (mean values around 500 J/kg) and keep severe threats at bay.

Subsidence and ridging is favored behind the shortwave Tuesday night into Wednesday, promoting a return to dry weather and well above average temperature. Moisture may work underneath the ridge axis and allow for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as convective temperature are met, but ensembles are bearish on this occurrence.

The late week period will be defined by the strength of the ridge axis building across the eastern CONUS and depth of troughs lifting out of the plains through the Great Lakes.
Strong ridge solutions would lead to well above average temperature and dry weather while weaker ridges would lead to above normal temperature with shortwave movement leading to periods of showers and thunderstorms. Any severe threat will depend on strength of that passing shortwave.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Winds will veer to the SSW from south to north as a warm front lifts north across the region. VFR cigs will likely be maintained based off latest forecast soundings and upstream obs except for KFKL and KDUJ where moisture pools along the mentioned warm front tonight.

Outlook
Mainly VFR is expected through Monday as a ridge builds back across the region.

Restrictions are likely Tuesday in showers and a few thunderstorms with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Wednesday under high pressure.

CLIMATE
Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Sunday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record High Year Record Low Year Pittsburgh 88 (1990) 66 (2021)
Wheeling 89 (1942) 65 (2021)
Morgantown 91 (1986) 64 (1962)
New Philadelphia 90 (1990) 55* (2021)
Zanesville 89 (1914) 63 (1914)
Dubois 85 (1990) 65 (1990)

Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Monday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record High Year Record Low Year Pittsburgh 88 (1899) 65 (1974)
Wheeling 86* (1942) 64 (1914)
Morgantown 91 (1899) 67 (1914)
New Philadelphia 90 (1986) 64 (1974)
Zanesville 90 (1899) 67 (1914)
Dubois 80 (1970) 61 (1974)

Here is a table of the record low temperatures Tuesday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record Low Year Pittsburgh 69 (1899)
Wheeling 58* (1911)
Morgantown 66 (1910)
New Philadelphia 63 (1991)
Zanesville 69 (1910)
Dubois 60* (1970)



PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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