Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nesconset, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:27PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 8:07 PM EST (01:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 3:16PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 457 Pm Est Tue Nov 30 2021
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 457 Pm Est Tue Nov 30 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will be in place tonight through Wednesday with a warm front approaching Wednesday night. The warm front lifts north of the area on Thursday followed by a cold front Thursday night. High pressure will largely be in control Friday into the weekend outside of a weak frontal system on Saturday. High pressure then builds in for Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nesconset, NY
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location: 40.85, -73.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 302355 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 655 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will be in place tonight through Wednesday with a warm front approaching Wednesday night. The warm front lifts north of the area on Thursday followed by a cold front Thursday night. High pressure will largely be in control Friday into the weekend outside of a weak frontal system on Saturday. A stronger frontal system may impact the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Cloud cover remains a challenge through midnight as moisture remains around 5-6 kft. Have raised sky cover to account for this and also based on satellite trends.

The upper flow flattens over the region tonight behind a shortwave heading farther east out to sea. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure maintains dry weather through the daytime hours of Wednesday. High temperatures will finally climb toward seasonable levels after a stretch of a few days of below-normal highs.

A warm front approaches during Wednesday night. Shortwave lift is on the weaker side, but there will be decent isentropic lift pushing through starting in the evening ahead of the warm front. This along with good lower-mid level moister will allow for chances of precipitation. Thermal profiles aloft will be warming through the night outside of any brief evaporational cooling, and at the surface, temperatures on a SW flow should rise slightly overnight, more so at the coast. Precip type expected to be rain for coastal areas given forecast freezing/wetbulb zero heights, and mixed rain and snow for inland areas. Freezing rain does not look like much of a concern well inland, however cannot rule out some sleet for a brief period, but for now won't include sleet in the forecast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A progressive pattern will persist into early next week and the ensemble means agree on this scenario. There will be several frontal systems and shortwaves moving across the northeast, but there still does not appear to be any significant impacts at this time.

The 12z model suite does offer some agreement for late this weekend into early next week with a bit more meaningful trough amplification and potentially a stronger frontal system. More details will be discussed below.

A warm front will lift north of the area on Thursday. Any precipitation from Wednesday night should be ending early Thursday morning and have decreased PoPs for the Thursday morning period. Much of the daytime will be dry and milder compared to recent days as an increasing SW flow develops ahead of a cold front. The northeast will lie within a fairly deep longwave trough and dynamics look to pass well to our north and west. Cannot completely rule out a passing shower in the late afternoon and evening with the cold front. Otherwise, temperatures will be able to reach the lower and middle 50s. SW winds may gusts 25 to 30 mph, especially near the coast late in the afternoon into the evening. Winds shift to the NW behind the front at night and will remain gusty into Friday. High pressure builds to the west on Friday, but the region will remain between strong low pressure to the northeast and the high to the west. This will keep breezy conditions going through much of the day. Despite cold advection, the downsloping flow should help temperatures reach seasonable levels in the middle and upper 40s.

Some changes were made to the forecast on Saturday, mainly to lower PoPs. A flat shortwave will move across New England, but there is minimal lift associated with this feature. The modeling is not offering much in the way of QPF and feel this is supported by the flat and progressive system. The shortwave may be enough to create a weak frontal system, but think any precip, if it were to occur, would be further north. Have gone below NBM PoPs, with a slight chance across the interior.

Heights aloft may then amplify on Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough may dig into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. This is where the global models and ensemble means have been starting to come into better agreement. This pattern largely supports a warmer solution given the rising heights aloft and shortwave energy lifting north into southeast Canada early next week. Will follow NBM PoPs closely given the time range. It should also be noted the models have been over amplifying systems in the extended close to a week out, so it is possible to see a weaker system overall in future runs as the event draws near. The aforementioned pattern overall supports mainly plain rain if the frontal system does impact the area Sunday night into Monday. The front would then move away from the area by Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Other than KSWF experiencing sub VFR conditions for the next couple of hours, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

City terminals will have winds out of the SW and W tonight at 5 to 10 kts, with lighter winds much of the time at outlying terminals. The winds will then increase to 10 kt into Wednesday morning at towards 12-13z. A few gusts are possible at a few terminals for the late morning and early afternoon, but confidence was to low to include in the TAFs.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments may be needed in the next few hours for improving conditions at KSWF. With respect to winds there is some uncertainty with wind speeds later in the overnight and into the Wednesday morning push, along with a low chance of gusts at 15 to 20 kt during the day on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday night-Thursday. Chance of MVFR developing later at night in light rain, a wintry mix at KSWF early Thursday. SW wind, gusts near 20-25 kt for Thursday. Thursday night. Mainly VFR. WNW wind, gusts 20-25 kt. Friday. VFR. WNW wind, gusts 25-30 kt. Friday night-Saturday. Possible MVFR. Possible rain and snow showers inland, mainly rain showers possible along coast. W wind gusts 15-20 kt Saturday afternoon. Sunday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Westerly winds pick up tonight, and after collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided to put up a SCA on the ocean waters for tonight into Wednesday. Expecting gusts around 25 kt and seas building up to around 5 ft. Winds and seas diminish late Wednesday afternoon with a period of sub-advisory conditions lasting through Wednesday night.

SCA conditions are likely on all waters Thursday into Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front. SCA conditions are then probable on the waters on Friday behind the front in a relatively strong NW flow. Conditions should fall below SCA levels for the upcoming weekend.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

SYNOPSIS . JC/DS NEAR TERM . JC/DS SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . JE MARINE . JC/DS HYDROLOGY . JC/DS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi38 min W 5.8G7.8 39°F 35°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 22 mi50 min WNW 1.9G5.1 38°F 49°F1013.5 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi53 min WSW 5.8G9.7 41°F 32°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 30 mi53 min SW 9.7G12 43°F 32°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi50 min W 13G15 42°F 1015.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 33 mi68 min WSW 12G16 42°F 52°F2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi50 min WNW 1.9G4.1 38°F 47°F1014.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 41 mi38 min 23G29 1013.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi38 min WSW 19G23 1014.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 46 mi50 min 41°F 51°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY5 mi-43128 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast38°F31°F76%1014 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi-43125 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F31°F73%1014.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY16 mi-43128 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F30°F79%1014.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT23 mi76 minW 610.00 miOvercast38°F31°F76%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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This dayNW12W8W5------W4--W7W40--W30SW3SW4W4W15W10SW8SW300NW4
1 day ago00N30000N3W3W4W4NW4NW6NW9N12N13N13NW13NW16
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Tide / Current Tables for Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Nissequogue River entrance
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Tue -- 12:50 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     7.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:28 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:15 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:31 PM EST     7.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Setauket Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Setauket Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:05 AM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     7.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:43 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:15 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:38 PM EST     6.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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