Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Water Mill, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:41PM Monday September 27, 2021 4:00 AM EDT (08:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 1:10PM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ350 Moriches Inlet Ny To Montauk Point Ny Out 20 Nm- 1047 Pm Edt Sun Sep 26 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 1047 Pm Edt Sun Sep 26 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure south of the area continues to build in through Monday. A cold front moves through on Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure builds in and remains to the north and west of the area through at least the beginning of next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Water Mill, NY
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location: 40.86, -72.31     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 270521 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 121 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure south of the area continues to build in through Monday. A cold front moves through on Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure builds in and remains to the north and west of the area through at least the beginning of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. The forecast is mostly on track. Just needed to adjust low temps downward by a few degrees in some spots based on latest trends.

High pressure moves south of the area tonight with slowly diminishing winds. Clear skies and cool conditions will be expected as a NW flow advected drier air into the region. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s to locally upper 40s for the interior and Pine Barrens Region with areas along the immediate coast mostly 55-60.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. High pressure to the south will slide off the East Coast. A low pressure system in southern Canada drags a cold front across western NY which will begin to the approach the area from the west late in the afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between these two systems will result in a brisk W/SW flow tomorrow with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts locally up to 30 mph. Other than some gusty winds, conditions will be clear and dry with high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and possibly low 80s in and around the NYC metro, about 5 to 10 degrees above average.

SW flow ahead of the approaching cold front will allow for a subtle increase in moisture for tomorrow night. This combined with gradually increasing cloud cover will prevent low temperatures from dropping as cool as the previous night. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s to middle 60s. There is a slight chance of showers late in the overnight, mainly after 2AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front moves through the forecast area during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. There continues to be some timing differences with the passage of the front. All the global models push it off shore by early Tuesday night, with the ECMWF a few hours slower than most other models. There is also uncertainty in the potential for the development of weak low pressure systems along the front, leading to possibly some briefly moderate rainfall. This is seen in both the ECMWF and the NAM. The GFS and Canadian both bring the front through with relatively little rain. In either case, the front is progressive enough and PWATS remain below 2" where flash flooding does not look to be a concern as of yet. There looks to be some surface instability ahead of the front, so kept the mention of isolated thunderstorms during the day Tuesday.

Thereafter, Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest Wednesday, and remains to the north and west of the area into the beginning of next weekend. A weakening cutoff low over central Quebec will dive south Tuesday night into Wednesday and be situated somewhere over northern New England early Wednesday night. Although there remains uncertainty with models in regards to where the low will track thereafter, models agree with an upper level trough being over or just east the Northeast US into the beginning of next weekend. Model solutions diverge for the second half of the weekend in regards to a frontal system over the middle of the country, but in all solutions, high pressure remains in control across the northeast and mainly dry conditions are expected from Tuesday night through next weekend.

Seasonably cool temperatures are expected from Wednesday onward with high pressure remaining to our west and a persistent north to northwest flow. Highs will generally be in the 60s to around 70, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Southern high pressure gradually slides off the SE US coast today, with a cold front approaching tonight.

VFR through the TAF period.

SW winds 10 kt or less in the morning, increasing through the morning, and eventually at 15-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt in the aft/early eve. Gusty winds may persist through the eve push for south coastal terminals.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Timing of gusts onset early this afternoon and taper off this evening may be off by 1 to 2 hrs. Peak SW gusts to 25 kt likely late aft/early eve, a few gusts to 30 kt possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Late Tonight. VFR. SW winds subsiding to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Tuesday. Mainly VFR, with brief MVFR possible in showers. An isolated thunderstorm possible afternoon into evening. Wednesday-Friday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Small Craft headlines remain up on the ocean waters through Monday for 5 ft seas. Winds are also expected to increase once again Monday late morning and afternoon out ahead of a cold front. Two things of note; 1: There will be a period where seas fall below SCA criteria tonight into Monday before increase once again during the day and 2: There is a chance that small craft advisories may need to be expanded to some of the non- ocean waters for Monday for gusts.

5 ft waves are expected on the ocean waters for Tuesday as a cold front moves through. However, they will slowly diminish through the day, coming below 5 ft by late Tuesday or early Tuesday night. Thereafter, winds and waves are forecast to remain below SCA criteria with high pressure building over the waters.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. On Monday, winds W-SW at 15 to 25 kt promote a high risk of rip currents. SE swells decrease slightly on Monday but will still be around 9 sec period. These factors point to the likelihood of a high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches.

For Tuesday, despite a developing offshore flow, a high risk of rip currents is likely with 2 ft long period ese swells and residual 4 to 5 ft southerly winds waves.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JP/MW NEAR TERM . JC/MW SHORT TERM . MW LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . JC MARINE . JP/MW HYDROLOGY . JP/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 18 mi50 min WSW 18 G 21 70°F 70°F1014.4 hPa56°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 23 mi66 min 67°F 70°F1014.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 27 mi120 min WSW 18 G 23 70°F 72°F3 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 33 mi80 min WNW 7 G 8 61°F 1013.4 hPa30°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 37 mi66 min 61°F 71°F1014.5 hPa
44069 43 mi60 min W 14 G 18 68°F 78°F55°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi66 min W 1.9 G 8 62°F 72°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY17 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair47°F44°F90%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Inlet (ocean), Long Island, New York
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Shinnecock Inlet (ocean)
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Mon -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:00 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.31.81.20.80.70.71.11.62.12.52.82.92.72.31.71.20.90.80.81.11.51.92.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Mon -- 02:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:10 AM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:25 AM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:53 PM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:55 PM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60-0.6-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.30.10.71.11.10.90.4-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.2-1-0.7-0.40.10.6

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