Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Larchmont, NY
May 8, 2024 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 5:45 AM Moonset 9:08 PM |
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 340 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening.
Thu - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Showers likely.
Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Showers likely.
Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds, becoming ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds.
Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 340 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front stalls south of the area tonight before a low pressure approaches the area from the west on Thursday. The low lingers over the area through Friday night. A series of lows move through the vicinity of the region this weekend. High pressure builds offshore for early next week before another low potentially moves in for the middle of next week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 081954 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 354 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front stalls south of the area tonight before a low pressure approaches the area from the west on Thursday. The low lingers over the area through Friday night. A series of lows move through the vicinity of the region this weekend. High pressure builds offshore for early next week before another low potentially moves in for the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
The area remains in a warm sector with a fair amount of instability. Though forcing remains well to the north, some thunderstorms developing in Western Massachusetts may approach the extreme northern portions of the CWA later this afternoon. The best chance to see any thunderstorms will be northern portions of the area, though northeastern areas remain in a more stable airmass than northwestern locations. If any storms develop, some may be strong with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Any storms come to an end this evening with a cold front moving through. The cold front will dry out the airmass, though eastern areas may remain moist enough to result in some patchy fog, especially earlier in the night. Lows tonight will be generally in the 50s, with the warmest spots in the west.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level energy upstream will force a surface low pressure system to move across the Ohio Valley and approach the area into Thursday.
Showers may approach the area during the morning but will become gradually more likely into the afternoon. The latest model guidance has trended much of the shower activity with this system to the south, which may hold off much of the shower activity off until the late afternoon or evening, especially for areas north and east.
Highs Thursday will be fairly seasonable with temperatures in the middle 60s to low 70s.
As the center of the low pressure moves into the area Thursday night, shower activity will increase substantially so that much of Thursday night through Friday morning will have widespread showers, some of which may be locally heavy with some embedded convective elements possible, though thunder is not likely.
Though there is some uncertainty as to the exact placement of the low on Friday, it looks to meander in the general area as an upper level trough moves overhead, the surface low will spin over the area on Friday resulting in additional shower activity during much of the day. As such, temperatures will be below average with highs only in the middle 50s. The shower activity should begin to wind down from west to east overnight Friday and into early morning Saturday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
From analysis of large scale deterministic weather prediction models of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian models, the following features were noted from the lower to upper levels.
The upper level jet is shown to remain south of the region this weekend and then with more ridging next week, parts of the upper level jet traverse the local area.
Mid level trough south of region Saturday morning, then shifts east during the day with brief ridging as the local area will be in between shortwaves.
Next shortwave moves in Saturday night with another moving south of the region Sunday. The larger trough encompassing these shortwaves and periodic positive vort maxima will be lingering across the region through Sunday. This trough then moves east of the region Sunday night.
Overall the larger scales convey a mid level ridging trend taking place for early into middle of next week for the local area. For Monday night into early Tuesday next week, a subtle small shortwave embedded within the ridge is forecast to move across. By Wednesday, especially late day into Wednesday night, next trough could be potentially moving in from the west.
At the surface, low pressure moves south and eventually southeast of the region Saturday. Weak pressure gradient follows across the local region. This weak high pressure will be brief as low pressure approaches Saturday night and moves near to south of the area early Sunday. Low pressure passes southeast of the region Sunday into Sunday night.
Offshore high pressure briefly builds in late Sunday night into early Monday and then moves farther offshore as another wave of low pressure approaches Monday afternoon into Monday night. This low pressure will be weak and will traverse the local area late Monday night into early Tuesday. Another low may approach the area next Wednesday.
Chances of rain showers are forecast much of this weekend and for Sunday when relatively the coldest air aloft moves across, put in a slight chance of thunderstorms for the mid afternoon into early evening hours.
Mainly dry conditions are forecast Sunday night through early Tuesday. Then, next chance of rain showers is forecast Tuesday afternoon into the midweek timeframe.
Temperatures for the weekend exhibit less of a diurnal trend, and generally expected to be below normal for daytime hours and then near to above normal for next week.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front approaches from the NW late this afternoon and passes across the area this evening.
This will mainly be a VFR forecast with the exception of KGON that will contend with occasional IFR ceilings through early this evening.
Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible late this afternoon into the early evening, with the best chance at KGON.
Confidence is too low to mention elsewhere.
Winds will continue to veer around to the WSW for the NYC and Lower Hudson terminals, but will be slower to do so for the eastern terminals due to a maritime influence. For those locations that become WSW, winds will increase to around 15 kt with G20-25t. A few 30 kt gusts are possible. Gusts diminish this evening with winds becoming WNW at 10 kt or less following a cold frontal passage.
Winds will continue to veer around to the NE Thursday morning. An afternoon seabreeze is possible, but confidence is low.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may linger for 1-3 hours after 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon/Night: Mainly VFR with a chance of showers in the afternoon, then MVFR or lower developing at night with a continued chance of showers.
Friday: MVFR or lower with showers likely.
Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday. Seas and winds may approach SCA criteria with winds near 20 kt and seas approaching 5 feet. Any marginal SCA conditions diminish once again into Friday and stay below SCA through at least Friday night.
For the long term period of Saturday through Monday night, SCA conditions are probable on the ocean, due to mainly seas, for much of the timeframe. Wind gusts stay mainly below SCA thresholds. Sub- SCA conditions are forecast for non-ocean zones.
HYDROLOGY
Upwards of 0.5" to 1" of rainfall is possible for western portions of the area Thursday night through Friday but are not expected to result in any hydrologic impacts. No hydrologic impacts are expected during the long- term forecast period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides run high the next few days with the new moon from last night.
Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight through Friday night for southern Nassau, southern Queens, and Fairfield and Westchester counties with inundation up to a foot. Coastal flood statements will be in place for tonight's high tide for Newark Bay in Hudson county and southern Queens with water levels perhaps just touching minor benchmarks. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Fri evening's high tides in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories and statements likely in similar locations tonight, and perhaps including SW Suffolk and portions of the north shore of Long Island in subsequent evening high tide cycles through Friday. Statements may also be needed for Thursday and Friday evening for portions of coastal NE NJ and Staten Island.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 354 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front stalls south of the area tonight before a low pressure approaches the area from the west on Thursday. The low lingers over the area through Friday night. A series of lows move through the vicinity of the region this weekend. High pressure builds offshore for early next week before another low potentially moves in for the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
The area remains in a warm sector with a fair amount of instability. Though forcing remains well to the north, some thunderstorms developing in Western Massachusetts may approach the extreme northern portions of the CWA later this afternoon. The best chance to see any thunderstorms will be northern portions of the area, though northeastern areas remain in a more stable airmass than northwestern locations. If any storms develop, some may be strong with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Any storms come to an end this evening with a cold front moving through. The cold front will dry out the airmass, though eastern areas may remain moist enough to result in some patchy fog, especially earlier in the night. Lows tonight will be generally in the 50s, with the warmest spots in the west.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level energy upstream will force a surface low pressure system to move across the Ohio Valley and approach the area into Thursday.
Showers may approach the area during the morning but will become gradually more likely into the afternoon. The latest model guidance has trended much of the shower activity with this system to the south, which may hold off much of the shower activity off until the late afternoon or evening, especially for areas north and east.
Highs Thursday will be fairly seasonable with temperatures in the middle 60s to low 70s.
As the center of the low pressure moves into the area Thursday night, shower activity will increase substantially so that much of Thursday night through Friday morning will have widespread showers, some of which may be locally heavy with some embedded convective elements possible, though thunder is not likely.
Though there is some uncertainty as to the exact placement of the low on Friday, it looks to meander in the general area as an upper level trough moves overhead, the surface low will spin over the area on Friday resulting in additional shower activity during much of the day. As such, temperatures will be below average with highs only in the middle 50s. The shower activity should begin to wind down from west to east overnight Friday and into early morning Saturday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
From analysis of large scale deterministic weather prediction models of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian models, the following features were noted from the lower to upper levels.
The upper level jet is shown to remain south of the region this weekend and then with more ridging next week, parts of the upper level jet traverse the local area.
Mid level trough south of region Saturday morning, then shifts east during the day with brief ridging as the local area will be in between shortwaves.
Next shortwave moves in Saturday night with another moving south of the region Sunday. The larger trough encompassing these shortwaves and periodic positive vort maxima will be lingering across the region through Sunday. This trough then moves east of the region Sunday night.
Overall the larger scales convey a mid level ridging trend taking place for early into middle of next week for the local area. For Monday night into early Tuesday next week, a subtle small shortwave embedded within the ridge is forecast to move across. By Wednesday, especially late day into Wednesday night, next trough could be potentially moving in from the west.
At the surface, low pressure moves south and eventually southeast of the region Saturday. Weak pressure gradient follows across the local region. This weak high pressure will be brief as low pressure approaches Saturday night and moves near to south of the area early Sunday. Low pressure passes southeast of the region Sunday into Sunday night.
Offshore high pressure briefly builds in late Sunday night into early Monday and then moves farther offshore as another wave of low pressure approaches Monday afternoon into Monday night. This low pressure will be weak and will traverse the local area late Monday night into early Tuesday. Another low may approach the area next Wednesday.
Chances of rain showers are forecast much of this weekend and for Sunday when relatively the coldest air aloft moves across, put in a slight chance of thunderstorms for the mid afternoon into early evening hours.
Mainly dry conditions are forecast Sunday night through early Tuesday. Then, next chance of rain showers is forecast Tuesday afternoon into the midweek timeframe.
Temperatures for the weekend exhibit less of a diurnal trend, and generally expected to be below normal for daytime hours and then near to above normal for next week.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front approaches from the NW late this afternoon and passes across the area this evening.
This will mainly be a VFR forecast with the exception of KGON that will contend with occasional IFR ceilings through early this evening.
Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible late this afternoon into the early evening, with the best chance at KGON.
Confidence is too low to mention elsewhere.
Winds will continue to veer around to the WSW for the NYC and Lower Hudson terminals, but will be slower to do so for the eastern terminals due to a maritime influence. For those locations that become WSW, winds will increase to around 15 kt with G20-25t. A few 30 kt gusts are possible. Gusts diminish this evening with winds becoming WNW at 10 kt or less following a cold frontal passage.
Winds will continue to veer around to the NE Thursday morning. An afternoon seabreeze is possible, but confidence is low.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may linger for 1-3 hours after 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon/Night: Mainly VFR with a chance of showers in the afternoon, then MVFR or lower developing at night with a continued chance of showers.
Friday: MVFR or lower with showers likely.
Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday. Seas and winds may approach SCA criteria with winds near 20 kt and seas approaching 5 feet. Any marginal SCA conditions diminish once again into Friday and stay below SCA through at least Friday night.
For the long term period of Saturday through Monday night, SCA conditions are probable on the ocean, due to mainly seas, for much of the timeframe. Wind gusts stay mainly below SCA thresholds. Sub- SCA conditions are forecast for non-ocean zones.
HYDROLOGY
Upwards of 0.5" to 1" of rainfall is possible for western portions of the area Thursday night through Friday but are not expected to result in any hydrologic impacts. No hydrologic impacts are expected during the long- term forecast period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides run high the next few days with the new moon from last night.
Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight through Friday night for southern Nassau, southern Queens, and Fairfield and Westchester counties with inundation up to a foot. Coastal flood statements will be in place for tonight's high tide for Newark Bay in Hudson county and southern Queens with water levels perhaps just touching minor benchmarks. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Fri evening's high tides in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories and statements likely in similar locations tonight, and perhaps including SW Suffolk and portions of the north shore of Long Island in subsequent evening high tide cycles through Friday. Statements may also be needed for Thursday and Friday evening for portions of coastal NE NJ and Staten Island.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 1 mi | 39 min | SW 14 | 75°F | 29.46 | 59°F | ||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 6 mi | 54 min | SW 13G | 80°F | 29.49 | |||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 19 mi | 54 min | 78°F | 59°F | 29.45 | |||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 23 mi | 54 min | W 23G | 84°F | 29.50 | |||
| MHRN6 | 28 mi | 54 min | WSW 16G | |||||
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 32 mi | 60 min | WSW 20G | 79°F | 67°F | 29.53 | ||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 36 mi | 44 min | S 12G | 61°F | 58°F | 29.52 | 60°F | |
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 36 mi | 54 min | SW 5.1G | 70°F | 29.44 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY | 10 sm | 32 min | WSW 13G26 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 86°F | 54°F | 33% | 29.48 | |
| KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY | 13 sm | 27 min | SSW 09G16 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 59°F | 45% | 29.48 | |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 17 sm | 32 min | SSW 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 61°F | 61% | 29.50 | |
| KTEB TETERBORO,NJ | 17 sm | 32 min | WSW 15G26 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 57°F | 40% | 29.47 | |
| KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY | 19 sm | 27 min | W 14G18 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 55°F | 40% | 29.51 | |
| KFRG REPUBLIC,NY | 21 sm | 30 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 61°F | 69% | 29.51 |
Davids Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT -1.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EDT 7.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 PM EDT -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT -1.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EDT 7.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 PM EDT -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Davids Island, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 8.8 |
| 1 am |
| 8.2 |
| 2 am |
| 6.6 |
| 3 am |
| 4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| -1 |
| 7 am |
| -1.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 5 |
| 11 am |
| 6.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 7.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 6.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 7.5 |
Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT 1.12 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:35 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:44 PM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:47 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT 1.06 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 09:51 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT 1.12 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:35 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:44 PM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:47 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT 1.06 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 09:51 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.8 |
| 1 am |
| -0.8 |
| 2 am |
| -0.4 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -0 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Upton, NY,
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