Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:48 PM   Moonset 2:48 AM

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FXUS61 KCTP 192304 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 704 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure is building into the region. Predominantly dry conditions, light winds and warmer temperatures are expected to hold into the middle of the upcoming week. A storm system should arrive later Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As the evening progresses, we will continue to see the lingering cu dissipate, leaving mainly clear skies around or shortly after sunset.

However, a light easterly flow in the llvls persists and could once again bring in Atlantic moisture overnight. Expect stratus to return to the ern half (or more) of the CWA There could also be fog around overnight, but lack of rainfall during the day and the potential for the development of low clouds may work against it. Dewpoints should remain in the 50s, however, and temps should dip to near the dewpoints overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As with Sunday AM, any low clouds will have to burn away with the mid-May sun. However, earlier dissipation of the stratus should help temps Monday aftn rise a few to several degrees warmer than Sunday's maxes.

There could be just enough instability across the nrn tier of counties in the aftn to pop a lonesome SHRA/TSRA. Left PoPs in the 20-30pct range for now. The support aloft is tough to find except for perhaps a short wave trough rolling over the upper Great Lakes.

Mon night looks similar to the last few nights, with perhaps less of a reprisal of the nighttime stratus. There could still be some fog, but we've only mentioned patchy fog for the time being. Mins will probably be a bit milder than Mon AM as well.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Confidence is increasing in the timing of the frontal passage to be Wednesday afternoon and evening. The surface low is currently progged to be positioned north of the great lakes and track well north of PA into central Ontario and eventually into Quebec. The resulting cold front will track across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region. This will bring showers and thunderstorms across PA late Wednesday into early Thursday, however uncertainty remains as to the extent of these storms.
Southerly flow ahead of the front will bring warm air advection and instability, but medium range guidance suggests these storms could breakup as the front crosses into central PA.
Therefore PoPs have been capped at 60% for now.

After the front moves through, considerable uncertainty still exists in terms of how much and how frequent rain will be. A chance of showers remains in place through the end of the week despite zonal flow aloft providing little in the way of synoptic forcing. The next chance for a widespread soaking rain will come during the weekend with a center of low pressure developing across the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon, and even the latest guidance is suggesting these weekend showers could be scattered to isolated given a lack of significant forcing and some ridging building in Friday to Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions prevail across the airspace for the early afternoon; however a few sites are still stubbornly holding onto MVFR low clouds. All sites should improve to VFR later this afternoon. Can't rule out a spotty shower this afternoon, however very sparse coverage, low confidence (<20% POP) and minimal operational impact will preclude mention from TAF. Focus for tonight will shift back to fog (west/central) and low stratus restrictions (east) into early Monday morning. Areas that have mostly cleared will dry out making confidence in widespread fog low, but a mention of IFR fog conditions have been made in the TAFs for the eastern sites.

Outlook...

Mon...Patchy AM fog possible, then VFR.

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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