Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baiting Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:48PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:31 PM EDT (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:17PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 119 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Scattered showers. Slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the evening, then showers and chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Showers and chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 119 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low press slowly weakens within the great lakes today. An associated cold front moves across late tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the front late Friday into Saturday. High pressure remains in control through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baiting Hollow, NY
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location: 40.97, -72.74     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 231423 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1023 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Parent low slowly weakens within the Great Lakes today. An associated cold front will be slowly approaching the region. The cold front moves across late tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the front late Friday into Saturday. High pressure remains in control of the weather through Monday. A cold front approaches on Tuesday and passes through during the night, followed by high pressure building in for Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Sct shwrs have begun to develop from wrn CT to nern NJ. Cell speed was about 25kt based on radar which is faster than modeled in the NAM. Although locally hvy rainfall is possible with any of the cells, no flood threat is expected in the near term unless multiple rounds of pcpn develop across the same area. Pwat on the 12z OKX sounding was 1.12 inches due to dry air in the mid lvls.

A cold front will be slowly moving eastward from central PA and central NY state to eastern PA near the NJ border by the start of the evening. During this time period, breezy SE flow continues across the local forecast region with widely scattered showers through the morning into early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, numerous showers are expected towards NYC and locations north and west, while to the east, showers remain widely scattered. Also by mid to late afternoon, instability will be increasing in the so a few thunderstorms will be possible and will have in forecast as a slight chance. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain as airmass will be warm and humid. The heaviest of the showers will likely still be west of NYC by the start of the evening.

Regarding the warm and humid airmass, precipitable waters will be increasing to around 2 inches for NYC, Nassau, SW CT and to the west through NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. This precipitable water value will be well above the OKX sounding climatology's 90th percentile for this time of year, which is just over 1.5 inches.

Abundant clouds, breezy SE winds, and higher shower coverage will limit the high temperatures. Went with a consensus of raw model data and NBM, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/. For tonight through Friday, the cold front approaches near and eventually moves across the region. Bulk of the rain expected tonight into early Friday morning with heavy rain likely at times. The precipitable water remains near 2 inches for the western half of the region and decreases slightly to near 1.8 inches for the eastern half of the region. There will be scattered embedded thunderstorms from time to time with elevated instability expected with Showalter Indices near -1 to -2. Bulk shear from 0-6km above the ground increases to 25-35 kt so some thunderstorms could be severe with strong wind gusts. Also, there is indication within the HRRR for some updraft helicity within certain areas, particularly north and west of NYC so an isolated tornado will be possible. This is from the directional shear from southeast to more south within the low levels. Both the factors for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are higher for western half of the region compared to the eastern half of the region.

For NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, Nassau, SW CT, heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms expected from the evening into the first half of the overnight (22Z-06Z Friday). For Suffolk and the rest of Southern CT, heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms expected (03Z-12Z Friday), although the intensity is forecast to be a little less with precipitable waters slightly decreasing as well as less bulk shear 0-6km above the ground (20-25 kt).

Specifically, looking at mesoscale models such as the HRRR, indicates potential for up to 1 inch per hour rates at times with showers developing and moving south to north across the region as the cold front slowly moves east. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms move across and this "training" of convection will occur due to nearly parallel southerly flow from low to upper levels.

About 2 inches of rain is indicated to fall during a 3-4 hour period according to the HRRR model. Locally higher amounts of rain will be possible. Flash flood watch currently covers NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, Nassau and Southern Fairfield. The same heavy rain potential and quick accumulations seem also probable for Northern Fairfield so flash flood watch was expanded to include that additional zone. New Haven CT and Western Suffolk NY may also get some flash flooding but line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be weakening as it moves across and felt any flash flooding would be more isolated in these zones so at this time left these zones out of the flash flood watch.

In addition, HREF also indicates potential for one inch per hour rain rates and conveys ensemble max 3 hour precipitation that reaches 2 to 3 inches in locations within the western half of the forecast region. To the east, closer to 2 inches in 3 hours. HREF indicates very low chance (20 percent) for rain rates to exceed 1 inch per hour.

For mid to late Friday afternoon, instability will have shift east of the region as will the higher precipitable waters of 1.7 to 1.8 inches. This will be coincident with the eastward movement across the region of the cold front. Shower intensity will be trending lower and thunderstorm chances will diminish. Outside of Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut where showers will linger into the late afternoon, mainly dry conditions are expected to the west mid to late Friday afternoon. Winds will shift to a more westerly direction on Friday and decrease to near 5 to 10 mph.

For Friday night, high pressure builds in from the west. Surface winds become more westerly in the evening, then more northerly overnight. Dry conditions are expected with negative vorticity advection in the mid levels. Clouds are expected to decrease.

For Saturday, a longwave trough approaches from the west with high pressure at the surface weakening across the region. Some height falls at 500mb with some positive vorticity advection will allow for some more cloud development. Light northerly surface flow in the morning will become more variable in the afternoon with sea breeze circulations likely to develop. Mainly dry conditions are expected.

Lows tonight consensus of raw model data from upper 50s north and west of NYC to lower 70s for Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut where cold front will still be ahead of by daybreak Friday.

Highs Friday are a blend of NBM and consensus of MOS with highs in the low to mid 70s. NBM and CONSMOS blend was used for lows Friday night and highs Saturday which will be near normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Showers may linger across eastern LI and SE CT for the first half of Saturday night as the cold front will be slow to shift east. High pressure meanwhile slowly builds in from the west.

An upper trough axis approaches Saturday night and shifts through during Sunday. The cyclonic flow aloft will promote some cumulus development, but that appears to be the extent of it as moisture looks too limited for precipitation. Another weak upper level trough moves through, but this looks to be mainly south of the area, and not associated with any precipitation.

The ECMWF and Canadian models show a cut off low that becomes semi- permanent Monday night over southeast Canada which is due to a weak low developing along the old frontal boundary, while the GFS pushes this low east of the area. This is leading to disagreement among the global models through the mid week period. Timing and placement differences are shown regarding longwave-troughing and shortwave energy reaching the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and the resulting surface features. It currently appears that a cold front, surface trough, or even a developing low pressure system moves through during Tuesday night or Wednesday. Despite the spread in solution, all models are showing some precipitation in some portion of the area.

Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal through the long term period, with relatively low humidity levels.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure centered near Nova Scotia gradually gives way to a slowly approaching frontal system today into tonight.

VFR for much of the day today for most terminals with MVFR ceilings move in after 21Z (western terminals) today and moving slowly from west to east late into tonight as the cold front approaches. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible throughout the day, but exactly when is unknown and could not put this in a TEMPO group. Eastern terminals may not see MVFR conditions until after 12Z Friday. This is a low confidence forecast, and conditions may lower much earlier than forecast.

Scattered showers are possible through most of the day today, with the better chances in the mid to late afternoon, except at KSWF where showers are possible most of today, and a chance of thunderstorms, mainly after 00Z Thursday. Timing of widespread showers will be dependent on the timing of an approaching cold front.

Wind SE to S 10 to 15 kt. Frequent gusts 20 to 25 kt develop this morning.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

The haze potential forecast for KJFK, KEWR, and KLGA is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

Amendments expected for changing flight categories, especially late tonight. Low confidence forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Fri. MVFR or lower possible in showers. Showers ending at night, west to east, with gradual improvement to VFR. SW to W winds near 10 kt. Gusts 15 to 20 kt at KGON in the morning. Sat-Mon. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Tight pressure gradient sets up between offshore high and low pressure to the west with associated cold front approaching. SE winds increase to 15 to 20 kt today with gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range for all waters that will continue into tonight. For Friday, SCA remains just for the ocean with lingering higher seas as pressure gradient weakens with cold front moving across and weakening. Sub-SCA conditions on all waters is expected Friday night through Saturday.

Winds remain below 25 kt from Saturday night onward, though occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible on the eastern ocean zone Sunday night.

Waves will remain below 5 ft through Saturday night. Waves build to 5 ft again on the ocean Sunday into Sunday night as a west-southwest to west flow increases. Waves diminish Monday.

HYDROLOGY. No flooding expected through this morning.

Flash flooding possible late this afternoon for locations north and west of NYC and for NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT tonight. Minor flooding possible farther east across Suffolk County on Long Island and New Haven through New London CT, particularly in low lying and poor drainage areas for overnight tonight into Friday morning.

Storm total rainfall will be between 1 and 2 inches with localized higher amounts between 2 and 3 inches, particularly north and west of NYC where there could be some enhancement of rainfall with orographic lift.

No hydrologic concerns Friday night through next Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A high risk for the development of rip currents continues today through Friday for the ocean beaches. Long period swells from the southeast will allow for ocean seas to remain in the range of 4 to 6 ft during this time.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning for CTZ005-009. NY . Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning for NYZ067>075-176>179. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ . Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-340- 345. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi62 min SSE 13 G 20 77°F 73°F1016.8 hPa
44069 26 mi62 min ESE 16 G 19 74°F 78°F73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi62 min SSE 16 G 19 78°F 75°F1014.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi42 min SE 16 G 19 74°F 71°F6 ft1016.7 hPa69°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 42 mi52 min SE 21 G 26 74°F 1016.4 hPa55°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 42 mi62 min 75°F 71°F1017.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 44 mi62 min 75°F 71°F1017.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi47 min SSE 19 G 25 78°F 69°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi39 minSE 10 G 2310.00 miFair78°F71°F79%1016.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi36 minESE 13 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F70°F74%1015.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi36 minSE 19 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy80°F72°F76%1014.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi39 minSE 14 G 218.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northville
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Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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55.55.34.43.220.90.20.41.22.53.855.75.753.82.41.20.30.10.61.73

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:26 AM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:24 AM EDT     1.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:50 PM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:46 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.60.111.51.51.20.5-0.3-1-1.5-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.30.61.21.31.10.7

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