Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:13PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:51PMMoonset 2:42AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 331 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 331 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold front will approach the area today, passing through the waters this evening. High pressure will then gradually build in from the west through mid week, while low pressure spins across the canadian maritimes.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, CT
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location: 41.05, -73.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 160826 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 426 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will approach the area today, passing through the waters this evening. High pressure will then gradually build in from the west through mid week, while low pressure spins across the Canadian Maritimes. A frontal system approaches late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A strong upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states today, sending a strong cold front east. The front will reach far western sections of the Lower Hudson valley late in the afternoon, then progresses across the remainder of the area during the early evening hours.

CAMs are in pretty good agreement with a fine line of strong convection right along the leading edge of the cold front. While there is strong deep-layer shear, instability is only marginal. The line quickly weakens as it approaches the Hudson and the NYC/NJ metro. That being said, precipitation loading should aid the downward transfer of momentum. This could result in strong gusty winds (40-50 mph) with the line. An isolated severe thunderstorm is also not out of the question. SPC has the area west of a S-N line from NYC into extreme western Fairfield CT under a slight risk. To the east of this line, there is a marginal risk.

Post-frontal showers will likely last several hours behind the main band due to large-scale ascent and mid level jet dynamics.

Conditions dry out across far eastern LI and and southeast CT during the early morning hours.

As for winds, a southerly low-level jet preceding the front will work east from the interior this morning to the coastal plane by afternoon. Southerly gusts of 25-30 kt will be possible, perhaps even a few higher gusts. NW winds behind the cold front may for a short time gusts up to 20 kt, independent of any post- frontal convection.

Leaned toward the higher end of the MOS guidance today based on the last couple of days. Mid and high level clouds this morning should give way to a period of mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will get well into the 70s and perhaps around 80 for the metro NY/NJ. This is 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Any further heating, will help to destabilize the airmass. Lows Sunday morning will be much cooler than recent nights with upper 40s far interior, to the lower and mid 50s at the coast. This is still above normal.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The negatively tilting upper trough will lift across the Northeast Sunday into Monday. Steep daytime lapse rates with the cold pool aloft and deep cyclonic flow may allow for some scattered afternoon showers and/or sprinkles. There should be plenty of instability clouds each afternoon as well. Sunday looks to be the better chance than Monday due to a bit more instability. Temperatures will also return to seasonable levels if not slightly below by Monday.

Gutsy W/NW winds will prevail during this time with gusts up to 20 kt during the daytime hours.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The long term starts out with an omega block pattern set up across much of the country, with an upper level low over southeastern Canada and another over the Rockies. The forecast area will be situated between the two, residing just west of the departing trough associated with the Canadian upper low. At the surface, high pressure will build in from the southwest. Because of the blocky nature of the upper pattern, expect a rather persistent pattern during this time frame, with features changing slowly through the week. This will mean dry conditions Monday night through the day Thursday as the surface high remains remains to our south, but ridging north into our area. A cold front approaches from the west late Thursday and moves through Thursday night. There appears to be little moisture to work with as the ECMWF brings the front through dry. The GFS brings some precipitation through, but only about a quarter of an inch or less, with the higher amounts across the Lower Hudson Valley. High pressure builds in at the end of the week.

As for temperatures, a bit of a warming trend is expected as the ridge associated with the omega block moves east, but deamplifies as it does so. So although warmer temperatures are expected, not expecting temperatures nearly as warm as this past week. Highs will generally be in the 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Weak high pressure will be in place through this morning, then a cold front moves through this afternoon into the evening.

VFR through much of the period, except brief MVFR conditions or lower with a line of thunderstorms expected as the cold front moves through. KGON may briefly come down to MVFR through 12Z this morning.

S winds this morning to 10-20 kt with gusts upwards of 25-30 kt possible with the highest potential along coastal terminals.

Showers ahead of the approaching cold front will be possible after 20Z for western areas and TSRA possible 20-23Z (later for eastern terminals). Gusts may be higher (up to 35 kt) in any thunderstorms that move through. However, the line of thunderstorms looks like it will weaken as it moves east, though there is some uncertainty at this time with how fast the line weakens.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Timing of start of gusts tomorrow may be off by 1 or 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday night. Lingering -shra possible early, otherwise VFR. Sunday and Monday. VFR. W to NW winds G20-25kt mainly daytime/eve. Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Southerly winds increase today ahead of an approaching cold front. The SCA remains in effect for all waters with southerly gusts of 25-30 kt. An isolated gust to gale force is possible, especially nearshore. Winds on the non-ocean waters should weaken later this evening behind the cold front, but 25 kt gusts are still possible on the ocean. Seas will gradually subside below 5 ft late tonight.

A moderate W/NW flow will bring marginal SCA conditions Sunday into Monday with the best chance of 25 kt+ gusts on the ocean waters. Confidence was not high enough at this time to extend SCA into this time period.

Waves may reach 5 ft on the outer portions of the ocean zones Monday night and Tuesday. Waves diminish Tuesday night and remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday night.

Winds may occasionally gust to 25 kt on the ocean waters Monday night, but become more prevailing for Tuesday and are possible across all marine zones except the harbor and possibly the western sound as the pressure gradient increases between the building high to our southwest and low pressure over southeastern Canada. Winds diminish Tuesday night and then should remain below SCA levels through Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY. Average rainfall late this afternoon and evening is one quarter to one half inch. The WPC PQPF 90th percentile 24-hr QPF ending Sunday morning shows worst-case potential between 1/2 to 1 inch of rain NW of NYC, so localized minor issues cannot be ruled out. No flash flooding is expected due to the progressive nature of the system.

Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

CLIMATE. Temperatures today will be unseasonably warm, and may approach these record highs:

Sat 10/16

EWR: 86/1956 BDR: 80/1975 NYC: 84/1956 LGA: 82/1958 JFK: 79/2008 ISP: 80/1963

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.



SYNOPSIS . JP/DW NEAR TERM . DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . JP MARINE . JP/DW HYDROLOGY . JP/DW CLIMATE . //


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 9 mi51 min SSW 9.7G12 69°F 62°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi48 min SW 4.1G6 68°F 70°F1009.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 19 mi51 min S 9.7 69°F 63°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 23 mi48 min SW 11G12 68°F 1010.6 hPa
44069 31 mi36 min SSW 12G14 69°F 78°F67°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi48 min SSW 8G8.9 69°F 69°F1010.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi48 min 69°F 69°F1010.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi48 min S 8G8.9 69°F 1009.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 43 mi96 min S 14G18 69°F 69°F2 ft
BGNN6 47 mi48 min 67°F 71°F1009.6 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi48 min S 6G8
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 49 mi36 min S 14G16 1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY14 mi40 minSE 310.00 miFair62°F59°F90%1009.1 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi44 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds69°F65°F87%1009.9 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT22 mi43 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F61°F81%1009.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi43 minSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds68°F64°F87%1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHPN

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW3NW50NW3SE44SW4SW803SE8SE5S7S4S3SE3SE30S3SE3SE3S3SE3
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2 days ago0W3NW400W30S54SW4S30SE3000000W30NW5NW4NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Greens Ledge, Connecticut
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Greens Ledge
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Sat -- 02:39 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     7.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:05 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:14 PM EDT     7.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Saugatuck River entrance, Connecticut
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Saugatuck River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:41 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     7.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:07 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:14 PM EDT     7.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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