Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Marion, NY
May 7, 2024 3:45 PM EDT (19:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 5:06 AM Moonset 7:44 PM |
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 331 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight. Chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - E winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Fri - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 331 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving north of the area tomorrow. Another low pressure approaches along a frontal boundary south of the region Thursday into Thursday night. The low pressure center moves across Friday and then east of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Saturday before another low moves across Sunday.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 071753 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 153 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving frontal boundary gets south of the area today before lifting back north as a warm front before stalling again through mid week. Low pressure develops to the west on Thursday and pushes a frontal boundary through by Friday. The low and its associated front should be east of the area to begin the weekend, potentially followed by another cold front on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track with ample sunshine allowing temperatures to rise into the middle and upper 70s for much of the area. Main adjustment to temperatures was along the immediate coast and eastern Long Island.
The light synoptic pressure gradient along with an increasing amount of sunshine resulting in sfc heating should promote sea breeze development during the afternoon. The sea breeze is expected to propagate to the north into the evening. This will cool coastal and eastern sections down after warming temperatures during the day. Temperatures before any sea breeze moves in should get temperatures into the 70s for the most part, with some lower 80s towards NYC and points west.
For tonight weak high pressure to the north will give way to a frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes which begins to advance northeast as a warm front. This will bring an increase in cloud cover tonight, with the evening remaining dry.
After 6z however the column as a whole moistens with chances for shower activity increasing during the pre-dawn hours and into Wed AM. A light southerly flow should begin to nudge dew points up towards daybreak Wed. With this have included patchy fog for now, with perhaps an upgrade to areas of fog in subsequent forecast packages as a warm front draws closer. Lows should average above normal with lows mainly in the 50s, to around 60 in the metropolitan areas.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Lots of low clouds with some fog early, and some showers around for Wednesday morning as the front begins to slowly nudge into the area.
Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary. The main question deals with how quickly the frontal complex can advance to the north and east. The front should slowly press east based on model consensus throughout the day. If this can slow and the area can reside in the warm sector much of the day with breaks in the clouds developing, then perhaps a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms could develop with fx soundings indicating some elevated CAPE on the order of 500 J or thereabouts on the GFS and 1000 to 1500 J with the NAM. However, by the time max heating takes places the soundings may dry out enough to preclude any convective development. At this time due to the uncertainty around the progression of things, it seems prudent to keep chance to slight chance PoPs in place through the afternoon along with slight chance / isolated thunder with no enhanced wording at this time due to the conditionality of convective initiation. With this said SPC does have the area under a marginal risk of severe weather on Wednesday.
Winds will likely be out of the south and should result in a large temperature spread across the region with breaks of afternoon sun.
Temperatures by the afternoon are likely to range anywhere from the lower 80s across western sections, to 70s, with mainly 60s across coastal and eastern most sections. Some 50s are possible by the start of the evening across the twin forks of Long Island with a wind off the colder ocean.
For Wednesday night the region should be in-between weather disturbances. Another low pressure system takes shape across the Midwest with a frontal boundary extending east the Ohio Valley. This boundary likely approaches towards Thu AM as a warm front as low pressure lifts into the Ohio Valley. After some clearing late Wed and much of Wed night, depending on timing clouds could increase again towards the pre-dawn hours for early Thu AM. It should remain rain free through the night with temperatures averaging somewhat above normal with lows in the 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mid levels show nearly zonal flow with a trough moving in Thursday into Friday. The local region gets brief mid level ridging Saturday before another trough approaches for Sunday into early next week.
A weakening wave of low pressure moves farther east into Thursday with a trailing cold front that will weaken and linger to the south of the area. Models depict a brief break in any rain or unsettled weather, with mainly dry conditions anticipated Wednesday night into early Thursday.
This front will eventually strengthen and move northward back towards the area Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west.
The front will return north as a warm front but may stay south of Long Island. Vertical forcing with low level omega increases Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
The center of the low reaches near the forecast area Thursday evening and eventually moves east of the area Friday. There are some model differences in terms of the number of waves of low pressure and their movement.
There is forecast an increasing chance for rainfall Thursday into Thursday night. Rain expected mid afternoon Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some elevated instability is shown to be a possibility so there could be a few thunderstorms. Chances for rain decrease for late Thursday night into Friday but become higher across interior locations Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.
The models exhibit more coherence in their pressure prognostication Friday night into Saturday as GFS, ECMWF and Canadian in that they depict low pressure getting farther east of the region with weak high pressure moving into the local area for the weekend. Chances for rain lower Friday night.
Would expect mainly dry conditions for the first half of the weekend with a brief return of high pressure. However the high pressure will be of weak magnitude and very transient, allowing for a large trough to approach Sunday into Sunday night before flattening out going into early next week.
At the surface, more low pressure areas approach Sunday through potentially Monday as well. However, model differences become more apparent in this timeframe as well. Chances for rain increase Sunday and Monday, mainly in the afternoon into early evening hours.
Temperatures overall are forecast to not deviate too significantly from seasonal normal values.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front then lifts through overnight into Wednesday morning.
VFR thru this evening with sea breezes pushing inland. Wind speeds will generally be light with the exception of JFK where speeds will be closer to 10 kt.
The warm front approaches late tonight and conditions deteriorate to at least MVFR toward or just after 6Z Wed with low stratus, mist, and rain developing. IFR or lower possible, particularly after 9Z Wed. Gradual improvement late morning and return to MVFR to VFR by early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift this afternoon/evening may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of sub-VFR conds Wed AM may be off by a couple of hours.
IFR possible or lower possible toward 9Z Wed and thereafter.
Low chance of SHRA or TS Wed afternoon, too low to include in TAF at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Chance of showers or isolated tstm in the afternoon.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, especially in the afternoon and at night.
Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday night as seas will essentially average close to 3 ft.
Marginal SCA conditions become possible for Friday and Friday night for mainly the ocean waters with 4 to 5 ft seas and gusts which get closer to 20 kt. Otherwise, mainly sub SCA conditions are forecast through Saturday, with perhaps a slight exception of marginal small craft seas for the eastern ocean during the day Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
WPC has placed mainly western interior portions of the areas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday. The risk of flooding from heavy rainfall appears to be limited at this time for later this week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides run high the next several days with a new moon tonight.
Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight thru Thursday across coastal southern Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield counties with inundation up to a foot. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Wed and Thu evening's high tides, particularly in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau and Queens.
Elsewhere, localized minor flooding for this evening's high tide in coastal Westchester, Brookyln, and northern Nassau/Queens.
Inundation up to a half foot is possible. Additional minor flooding is possible thru Thursday evening.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 153 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving frontal boundary gets south of the area today before lifting back north as a warm front before stalling again through mid week. Low pressure develops to the west on Thursday and pushes a frontal boundary through by Friday. The low and its associated front should be east of the area to begin the weekend, potentially followed by another cold front on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track with ample sunshine allowing temperatures to rise into the middle and upper 70s for much of the area. Main adjustment to temperatures was along the immediate coast and eastern Long Island.
The light synoptic pressure gradient along with an increasing amount of sunshine resulting in sfc heating should promote sea breeze development during the afternoon. The sea breeze is expected to propagate to the north into the evening. This will cool coastal and eastern sections down after warming temperatures during the day. Temperatures before any sea breeze moves in should get temperatures into the 70s for the most part, with some lower 80s towards NYC and points west.
For tonight weak high pressure to the north will give way to a frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes which begins to advance northeast as a warm front. This will bring an increase in cloud cover tonight, with the evening remaining dry.
After 6z however the column as a whole moistens with chances for shower activity increasing during the pre-dawn hours and into Wed AM. A light southerly flow should begin to nudge dew points up towards daybreak Wed. With this have included patchy fog for now, with perhaps an upgrade to areas of fog in subsequent forecast packages as a warm front draws closer. Lows should average above normal with lows mainly in the 50s, to around 60 in the metropolitan areas.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Lots of low clouds with some fog early, and some showers around for Wednesday morning as the front begins to slowly nudge into the area.
Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary. The main question deals with how quickly the frontal complex can advance to the north and east. The front should slowly press east based on model consensus throughout the day. If this can slow and the area can reside in the warm sector much of the day with breaks in the clouds developing, then perhaps a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms could develop with fx soundings indicating some elevated CAPE on the order of 500 J or thereabouts on the GFS and 1000 to 1500 J with the NAM. However, by the time max heating takes places the soundings may dry out enough to preclude any convective development. At this time due to the uncertainty around the progression of things, it seems prudent to keep chance to slight chance PoPs in place through the afternoon along with slight chance / isolated thunder with no enhanced wording at this time due to the conditionality of convective initiation. With this said SPC does have the area under a marginal risk of severe weather on Wednesday.
Winds will likely be out of the south and should result in a large temperature spread across the region with breaks of afternoon sun.
Temperatures by the afternoon are likely to range anywhere from the lower 80s across western sections, to 70s, with mainly 60s across coastal and eastern most sections. Some 50s are possible by the start of the evening across the twin forks of Long Island with a wind off the colder ocean.
For Wednesday night the region should be in-between weather disturbances. Another low pressure system takes shape across the Midwest with a frontal boundary extending east the Ohio Valley. This boundary likely approaches towards Thu AM as a warm front as low pressure lifts into the Ohio Valley. After some clearing late Wed and much of Wed night, depending on timing clouds could increase again towards the pre-dawn hours for early Thu AM. It should remain rain free through the night with temperatures averaging somewhat above normal with lows in the 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mid levels show nearly zonal flow with a trough moving in Thursday into Friday. The local region gets brief mid level ridging Saturday before another trough approaches for Sunday into early next week.
A weakening wave of low pressure moves farther east into Thursday with a trailing cold front that will weaken and linger to the south of the area. Models depict a brief break in any rain or unsettled weather, with mainly dry conditions anticipated Wednesday night into early Thursday.
This front will eventually strengthen and move northward back towards the area Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west.
The front will return north as a warm front but may stay south of Long Island. Vertical forcing with low level omega increases Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
The center of the low reaches near the forecast area Thursday evening and eventually moves east of the area Friday. There are some model differences in terms of the number of waves of low pressure and their movement.
There is forecast an increasing chance for rainfall Thursday into Thursday night. Rain expected mid afternoon Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some elevated instability is shown to be a possibility so there could be a few thunderstorms. Chances for rain decrease for late Thursday night into Friday but become higher across interior locations Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.
The models exhibit more coherence in their pressure prognostication Friday night into Saturday as GFS, ECMWF and Canadian in that they depict low pressure getting farther east of the region with weak high pressure moving into the local area for the weekend. Chances for rain lower Friday night.
Would expect mainly dry conditions for the first half of the weekend with a brief return of high pressure. However the high pressure will be of weak magnitude and very transient, allowing for a large trough to approach Sunday into Sunday night before flattening out going into early next week.
At the surface, more low pressure areas approach Sunday through potentially Monday as well. However, model differences become more apparent in this timeframe as well. Chances for rain increase Sunday and Monday, mainly in the afternoon into early evening hours.
Temperatures overall are forecast to not deviate too significantly from seasonal normal values.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front then lifts through overnight into Wednesday morning.
VFR thru this evening with sea breezes pushing inland. Wind speeds will generally be light with the exception of JFK where speeds will be closer to 10 kt.
The warm front approaches late tonight and conditions deteriorate to at least MVFR toward or just after 6Z Wed with low stratus, mist, and rain developing. IFR or lower possible, particularly after 9Z Wed. Gradual improvement late morning and return to MVFR to VFR by early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift this afternoon/evening may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of sub-VFR conds Wed AM may be off by a couple of hours.
IFR possible or lower possible toward 9Z Wed and thereafter.
Low chance of SHRA or TS Wed afternoon, too low to include in TAF at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Chance of showers or isolated tstm in the afternoon.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, especially in the afternoon and at night.
Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday night as seas will essentially average close to 3 ft.
Marginal SCA conditions become possible for Friday and Friday night for mainly the ocean waters with 4 to 5 ft seas and gusts which get closer to 20 kt. Otherwise, mainly sub SCA conditions are forecast through Saturday, with perhaps a slight exception of marginal small craft seas for the eastern ocean during the day Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
WPC has placed mainly western interior portions of the areas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday. The risk of flooding from heavy rainfall appears to be limited at this time for later this week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides run high the next several days with a new moon tonight.
Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight thru Thursday across coastal southern Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield counties with inundation up to a foot. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Wed and Thu evening's high tides, particularly in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau and Queens.
Elsewhere, localized minor flooding for this evening's high tide in coastal Westchester, Brookyln, and northern Nassau/Queens.
Inundation up to a half foot is possible. Additional minor flooding is possible thru Thursday evening.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 16 mi | 30 min | S 8G | 61°F | ||||
| NLHC3 | 18 mi | 45 min | 66°F | 64°F | 29.71 | |||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 21 mi | 45 min | 64°F | 52°F | 29.68 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 32 mi | 45 min | S 7G | 63°F | 55°F | 29.73 | ||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 46 mi | 45 min | S 8.9G | 69°F | 29.68 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT | 18 sm | 49 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 54°F | 64% | 29.72 | |
| KSNC CHESTER,CT | 18 sm | 30 min | S 07G14 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 45°F | 32% | 29.72 | |
| KMTP MONTAUK,NY | 22 sm | 51 min | S 04 | -- | 66°F | 54°F | 64% | 29.74 |
Orient
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM EDT 2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:10 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:17 PM EDT 3.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM EDT 2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:10 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:17 PM EDT 3.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Orient, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| -0.3 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 2.5 |
| 10 am |
| 2.7 |
| 11 am |
| 2.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.5 |
Tide / Current for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
EDIT HIDE HelpThe Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT -4.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:35 AM EDT 3.90 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:52 PM EDT -4.13 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:55 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM EDT 4.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:53 PM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT -4.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:35 AM EDT 3.90 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:52 PM EDT -4.13 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:55 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM EDT 4.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:53 PM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31), knots
| 12 am |
| -2 |
| 1 am |
| -3.7 |
| 2 am |
| -4.6 |
| 3 am |
| -4.6 |
| 4 am |
| -3.4 |
| 5 am |
| -1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 2.5 |
| 8 am |
| 3.7 |
| 9 am |
| 3.8 |
| 10 am |
| 3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -3.7 |
| 3 pm |
| -4.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -3.4 |
| 5 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.9 |
Upton, NY,
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