Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ogden, UT

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:17PM Monday September 27, 2021 12:42 AM MDT (06:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:03PMMoonset 12:57PM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogden, UT
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location: 41.21, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 262148 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 348 PM MDT Sun Sep 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cut-off upper level low will gradually shift eastward across the Desert Southwest through Monday. A strong cold front will cross the state Tuesday into early Wednesday bringing unsettled conditions and much colder temperatures. A gradual warming trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM MDT Wednesday). Early afternoon satellite and observational analysis reveals the presence of a persistent upper-level low centered SW of Tucson, AZ. An axis of deeper moisture extends northeastward into south- central and southeast Utah. Much of the deeper moisture is restricted to areas along the AZ/UT border, where dewpoints have risen into the mid to upper 40s. This pocket of deeper low-level moisture is exhibiting a tight gradient, as dewpoints quickly fall off into the mid 30s in Cedar City. A broad shield of mid and high level cloud cover has been in place mainly along and east of a Hildale to Panguitch to Emery line, and this has limited surface- based heating here. This cloud shield is thinning, however. High elevation areas west of here such as Brian Head and high terrain of western Iron and Beaver counties have received full insolation, and Cumulus development has gotten underway here. Anticipate isolated shower and thunderstorm development to be focused in the Brian Head and nearby high terrain areas to continue through the afternoon, in line with the latest HREF guidance. This activity will tend to drift south and west towards perhaps Zion by late afternoon/early evening. Given the relative dry low-levels here, gusty outflow winds remain the primary threat with shower and thunderstorm activity. With the loss of daytime heating, thunderstorm activity should quickly wane this evening, but with broad diffluence aloft remaining across southern Utah overnight, isolated showers may continue, especially over far southeast portions of the forecast area. High-resolution guidance has trended increasingly drier through this period, and the latest forecast reflects this trend.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage is advertised (by HREF members) to be slightly more widespread across southern Utah Monday afternoon and evening, owing to increased northward moisture advection and a lack of morning cloud cover along with better large-scale lift due to the closer proximity of the low. This should lead to increased buoyancy when compared to this afternoon and evening. This is reflected in forecast SB CAPE values running a couple of hundred Jules greater than today, generally forecast in the 500-1000J/Kg range over the southern couple rows of counties. A heavy locally heavy rainfall threat cannot be ruled out given the combination of deeper moisture and weak steering flow, generally less than 15kts in the 700mb-500mb layer. Gusty outflow winds will remain a possibility as well. Storm motions are once again expected to be generally west to southwest.

As we head through Tuesday, the above-mentioned low will continue to track north and east into Colorado before being absorbed by an incoming seasonally-strong low pressure trough and attendant cold front. These features are expected to reach extreme NW Utah late Tuesday morning, the Wasatch Front Tuesday afternoon, central Utah Tuesday night and southern Utah Wednesday morning. Ahead of the front, warm and breezy conditions are expected, with SW 700mb winds forecast to be in the 20-30kt range. Given steep low-level lapse rates, surface wind gusts should easily reach 25-35 mph range in western deserts as well as wind-prone areas of southern Utah. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the post-frontal environment, with a sharp transition to NW-N winds expected behind the front.

In terms of precipitation associated with this frontal passage, the majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance promote the development of showers Tuesday evening into Wednesday along and behind the boundary in association with jet dynamics as a jet streak rounds the base of the trough across southern UT and northern Nevada and Arizona. Snow levels are forecast to gradually fall to 7,000-9,000 feet across central to northeast Utah by Wednesday morning, to 9,000-11,000 feet across southern Utah, and this is where PoPs are currently highest during this time. Therefore, light snow accumulations are possible in higher terrain areas above these elevations. Near record high temperatures statewide Monday and across central and southern Utah Tuesday will fall 20-25 degrees behind the frontal passage. This will result in below-freezing lows across the Cache, Bear Lake and many valleys across the Wasatch Back Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday). By Wednesday morning, the strongest area of baroclinicity at 700 mb will be located in the eastern half of the state, draped from southwest Wyoming to southwestern Utah and weakening. Little moisture is associated with this boundary, and with less than ideal dynamics to support widespread precipitation, extent and impacts are expected to be limited. Recent ensemble forecasts are trending drier, though maintain at least moderate confidence in light precipitation across the southern half of the forecast area up through the Book Cliffs and Uintas.

The upper level trough and associated surface cold front will leave behind cooler air in its wake, with 700 mb temperatures falling below 0C in the northern half of the forecast area and below 2C in the southern half. There is high confidence afternoon high temperatures will run 10-15 degrees below normal in almost all locations, with departures closer to 5 degrees below normal for far southern Utah.

Uncertainty increases substantially for the rest of the extended forecast period, with the exiting trough expected to split early Thursday and leave a closed low to the south of the forecast area in its wake. The ensemble clusters show fairly divergent solutions, with little confidence in the position and depth of the closed low. Slightly elevated PoPs are present in the consensus forecast for Friday afternoon, though adjustments are likely as models adjust the handling of this complex feature. Currently, precipitation potential remains elevated for much of the eastern half of the forecast area through Saturday, with conditions drying out Sunday as the closed low is swept up in the mean flow and zonal flow to weak ridging returns.

AVIATION. KSLC . The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the evening with mostly clear skies. Northwest winds are expected to shift to the southeast between 03Z and 05Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING . VFR conditions are expected across the airspace through the evening with mostly clear skies for northern and central portions of the airspace. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over southern Utah, primarily over the higher terrain, into the early evening. The primary threat with any storms that develop will be gusty winds.

FIRE WEATHER. An area of low pressure will continue to cross the Desert Southwest through Monday. Increasing humidities are expected across the southern third of Utah associated with this system through this time. Expect high-based showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening and tend to move toward the south to southwest. Given the relatively high- based nature of this convection, gusty and erratic microburst winds will be possible.

Another round of convection is expected Monday afternoon and evening. Storm motions will again favor a west to southwest motion. Gusty and erratic winds will again be possible, along with at least localized wetting rain potential.

A strong cold front will cross the state from the northwest to southeast Tuesday into early Wednesday. This cold front will bring unsettled conditions to Utah Tuesday into Wednesday, with snow levels lowering sufficiently across the northern and central mountains for light snow accumulations Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly in the High Uintas. Wetting rains are most probable east of a line from roughly the western Uinta Basin to Zion National Park. Gusty southwest winds will develop ahead of the cold front on Tuesday, with winds shifting to the northwest as the front plows southward through northern Utah Tuesday afternoon and evening, then across central Utah Tuesday night and finally crossing southern Utah Wednesday morning. Temperatures will cool significantly Wednesday. A warming and drying trend is then expected Thursday into next weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . None. WY . None.

ADeSmet/Wessler/Traphagan

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ogden-Hinckley Airport, UT1 mi49 minS 910.00 miFair67°F29°F24%1010.2 hPa
Hill Air Force Base, UT6 mi44 minESE 1110.00 miFair66°F27°F23%1010.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOGD

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Last 24hrE4S9S9S8S8S6CalmS8SE6S5SE3SW3W3W4--SW6SW4W4CalmSE5S7S7S9S9
1 day agoS8S8S8S7S8S8S9S8S7W3CalmCalmW53Calm5N74CalmCalmS6S8S7S7
2 days agoSE4SW6S3S5S4NE4S5S6CalmS5S9S4W6W5W6W634NW5W4CalmS7S7S8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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