Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saybrook Manor, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:59PM Saturday October 23, 2021 3:58 PM EDT (19:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 333 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Tonight..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers until early morning.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 333 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak surface trough will move across the area this evening, followed by weak high pressure building in from the west tonight into the first half of Sunday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Sunday evening that stalls near the area on Monday. Low pressure affects the region Monday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saybrook Manor, CT
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location: 41.21, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 231745 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 145 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak surface trough will move across the area this afternoon, followed by weak high pressure building in from the west tonight into the first half of Sunday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Sunday evening that stalls near the area on Monday. Low pressure affects the region Monday night into Wednesday. Weak high pressure then briefly returns before another frontal system impacts the area late Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Sprinkles and/or isolated showers have just about dissipated across the area ahead of a more robust shortwave trough moving up from the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. Another round of light showers and/or sprinkles should redevelop late this afternoon.

Have increased chances of showers late this afternoon into early this evening, highest across NYC and LI. Rainfall amounts will be light and of short duration.

Behind the passing shortwave trough, heights begin to slowly rise through tonight. With drying and weak subsidence clouds will clear as ridging builds toward the area. Weak cold advection today and this evening becomes neutral toward Sunday morning. Cloud cover until late tonight will hinder ideal radiational cooling as winds become light. Patchy frost will be possible toward Sunday morning in a few locations across western Orange County.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Weak low and mid level ridging builds into the region Sunday, as upper level flow remains nearly zonal as the upper closed low across southeastern Canada slowly evolves into an open weak trough. The neutral advection becomes weak warm advection Sunday into Sunday night as a warm front develops to the south and southwest, associated with y low pressure developing over the central plains and moving toward the southern Great Lakes. At this time guidance is bringing the warm front through the area Monday, with the area becoming warm sectored by later in the day, so have increased high temperatures by several degrees. However, there is some uncertainty if the warm front will move through the eastern sections of the area as high pressure to the north may ridge into the northeast and keep the front to the south. There will be increasing isentropic light with the frontal boundary and will have a period of likely probabilities of light rain with the warm front Sunday night. Then chances decrease Monday as the warm front lifts to the north. Have maintained low end chance probabilities across the eastern zones into Monday if the front does not move north in these locations. With the uncertainty of the warm front Monday high temperatures are also uncertain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A rather unsettled period is expected in the long term with the models starting to agree more regarding the next storm system impacting the forecast area. Stuck fairly close to the NBM during this period.

It appears that the center of low pressure will track over or near the local area at some point on Tuesday. Rain chances will increase across the entire Tri-State area Monday night and Tuesday with the approach and passage of the center of the storm. Models show some elevated instability Monday night into Tuesday, and should the low center pass through the area, cannot completely rule out thunder. For now, will leave the mention of thunder out of the forecast until confidence increases.

The storm will be slow to shift farther away east Tuesday night into Wednesday as the associated closed 500mb low drifts toward coastal New England. Have left in low chances of showers for this period.

A narrow ridge of high pressure then shifts through late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by another storm system that could bring rainfall here by the end of the day. Rain would be more likely Thursday night and Friday as the system heads our way.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A broad area of high pres will remain over the area thru Sun.

Mainly VFR. A period of light rain or shwrs is expected this eve which could briefly reduce cigs to around 3000 ft. The probability of MVFR however was too low to include in the TAFs attm.

Winds blw 10 kt thru the TAF period. WNW flow today veer so the NW thru this eve, then becomes SW aft 15z Sun.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Wind direction could be vrb at times due to the light flow.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Rest of Sun. VFR, then MVFR developing after 00Z with rain possible. Mon. MVFR or lower possible, especially Mon ngt with rain developing. Tue. IFR with rain possible. Strengthening winds possible depending on the track and intensity of low pres. Wed. Improvement to MVFR/VFR possible. Chance for gusty winds behind the low. Thu. MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. With a weak pressure gradient across the waters as high pressure builds into the area, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today into Sunday night. Southerly flow increases Monday behind a warm front and ocean seas will be building to SCA levels. In addition gusty winds may also reach minimal SCA levels across the ocean waters and the Long Island bays, and possibly across the far eastern Long Island Sound. Mixing will be limited in warm air behind a warm front, and gusts may not reach SCA levels.

Low pressure approaches Monday night and passes nearby or through the area waters on Tuesday. SCA conds likely on the ocean for winds and seas during this period. For the remainder of the waters during this time, there could be periods of gusts to 25 kt, largely depending on the eventual track of the storm's center. A narrow ridge of high pressure then attempts to build in behind the storm during Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds diminish, but seas probably remain elevated due to a lingering swell. Another storm system is forecast for the end of the week, keeping seas above SCA criteria.

HYDROLOGY. A quarter to one third of an inch of rainfall is likely Sunday night into Monday across the lower Hudson Valley and into interior southern Connecticut, with lower amounts to the south. This is in association with a warm frontal boundary.

Moderate rainfall amounts are possible with two storm systems next week. At this time, the hydrologic impact potential is low for both systems due to the long period of time in which potential rain amounts would be falling.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BC/MET/DW NEAR TERM . MET/DW SHORT TERM . MET LONG TERM . BC AVIATION . JMC MARINE . BC/MET HYDROLOGY . BC/MET


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi48 min WNW 9.9G14 59°F 1011.8 hPa-19°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 20 mi76 min 60°F 66°F1013.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi70 min 57°F 65°F1012.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi70 min NW 8G13 58°F 65°F1013.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi38 min WNW 9.7G14 58°F 65°F1013.4 hPa44°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi70 min NW 5.1G8.9 58°F 66°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi63 minVar 5 G 1010.00 miFair59°F39°F48%1012.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi62 minNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F40°F46%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr644055N7NE7N7
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2 days ago540454400300W3SW4030047NE1097
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Tide / Current Tables for Saybrook Jetty, Connecticut
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Saybrook Jetty
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Sat -- 12:41 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:50 PM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.3
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3.4
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2.4
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1.8
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1.3
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0.9
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3.7
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3.9
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1.6
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0.6
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1.2
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1.9
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2.6


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Sat -- 01:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:34 AM EDT     -2.67 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:30 AM EDT     2.60 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:44 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:55 PM EDT     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:59 PM EDT     2.42 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.7
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2.5
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2.5
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1.9
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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