Thursday, January20, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Shasta, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday January 20, 2022 4:03 PM PST (00:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:04PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Shasta, CA
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location: 41.32, -122.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 202257 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 257 PM PST Thu Jan 20 2022

SHORT TERM. This afternoon - Saturday Night, January 22nd . The southwestern edge of an upper level trough that's diving into the Intermountain West is brushing the forecast area with cloudiness and light showers over northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. While mild temperatures compared to January normals are being observed, cloud cover has kept temperatures a little cooler than they otherwise would be, thus far, this afternoon. Forecast highs have been adjusted slightly, but are still within a few degrees of expectations from 24 hours ago.

Tonight through Friday a surge of northerly winds will occur across mid-upper elevations, with wind gusts of 30-45 mph expected across the mountains above 6000 foot elevations and across the coastal ranges. Even higher gusts are likely across and around the flanks of the peaks of the Cascades, particularly Mount Shasta. Gusty easterly winds will then continue with breezy winds mixing down into easterly wind zones, at times, Friday night through Sunday. In fact, the latest NAM12 numerical model indicates a 7MB surface pressure gradient across our forecast area at 18Z Friday, a 12MB SFC pressure gradient 18Z Saturday, and a 13MB gradient 18Z Sunday. Initially, winds across the mountains are synoptically driven on Friday. As high pressure across the area strengthens, the air mass will dry further as winds mix increasingly more toward the surface. Said another way, expect breezy conditions in the mountains Friday through Sunday in areas exposed to the east and on the flanks of the Cascade volcanoes.

With high pressure building in and the air mass drying out after tonight such that there will be very little fog, even in the valleys, expect big differences between maximum and minimum temperatures across the area in wind sheltered areas. The temperature forecasts have been refined to better hone in on this detail in the forecast. Keep in mind that this is the pattern in which temperatures can vary greatly in time and space due to the effect of winds and mountain valley inversions.

Finally, please check out our Weather Story highlighting the long term outlook into early February that was issued this afternoon. ~BTL


LONG TERM. Sunday, January 23rd - Friday January 28th, 2022 . The strong upper high presure ridge will remain in place on Sunday resulting in warm daytime temperatures, breezy easterly winds over the mountains and dry conditions. Strong inversions will mean light winds in many valley locations and relative low mixing. Of note, models indicate that a strong east-west pressure gradient will keep breezy to gusty easterly winds over higher mountains into Sunday, with gusty winds most likely over the Cascades, Siskiyous and other higher mountain locations. These winds are expected to ease some Sunday afternoon and evening but breezy northeast winds may continue across the higher mountains into Monday. Sunday night into early Monday, an upper level shortwave trough will drop down across Washington and across eastern Oregon. No precipitation is expected with this trough but it will weaken the high pressure ridge some. This may provide some increased mixing into Monday. Tuesday through Thursday, the upper level high pressure ridge will strength again over the region (although not as strong as the ridge on the weekend). This will result in a continued dry pattern with day time temperatures several degrees above normal and nighttime lows near normal. -CC

Previous Long Term forecast. Ensemble systems continue to indicate a retrogression of the eastern Pacific upper ridge to near the Aleutians toward the end of January into early February, with a gradual lowering of heights over the western U.S. Largest positive height anomalies during this time period are indicated over the Gulf of AK northward, which favors a trough downstream over the NW or Intermountain West. It doesn't look overly wet, though, since in this type of pattern, we mostly end up with Pacific systems that ride over the top of the Pacific ridge and down into the NW. This makes atmospheric river systems, the ones that truly deliver significant precipitation to our area, less likely. Overall, though, this pattern favors a shift in temperatures (downward) and precipitation (upward) closer to the seasonal normals. -Spilde

AVIATION. 20/18Z TAFs . A weak cold front will produce some lower to mid clouds over the area today. Expect continued areas or MVFR cigs and local IFR cigs along with scattered light showers over northwest portions of the area, mainly across Coos and Douglas counties and into the Southern Oregon Cascades. Local MVFR cigs are possible for other areas west of the Cascades. East of the Cascades, some mountain obscuration is expected but terminals should remain VFR through early evening. Once the front passes by this evening, clearing skies are likely to allow valley low clouds and fog to develop overnight. Areas of IFR/LIFR are expected to develop tonight into Friday morning in the valleys west of the Cascades in low clouds and fog. For valleys east of the Cascades, local IFR conditions are expected in patchy freezing fog tonight into Friday morning. -CC

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PST Thursday 20 January 2022 . A thermal trough will develop later this afternoon. This will result in gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas, especially south of Cape Blanco, tonight through Saturday afternoon. Lighter winds should return by late this weekend, but a longer period swell will also build on Sunday. Another round of gusty north winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions is possible by Monday when the thermal trough redevelops. -CC/Sargeant

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ376.

BTL/CC/KRS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Shasta, CA1 mi3.1 hrsno data10.00 miFair55°F37°F51%1029.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMHS

Wind History from MHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr300000000000NE300--E43NW7
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1 day ago5--0NE34300003300--003--------NW7--
2 days ago--------------------------------------00--6
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Tide / Current Tables for Trinidad Harbor, California
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Trinidad Harbor
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Thu -- 01:44 AM PST     5.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM PST     3.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:31 PM PST     6.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:18 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:31 PM PST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Trinidad Harbor, California, Tide feet
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5.1
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5.8
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5.9
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5.5
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4.8
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1.8
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3.2


Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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