Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Derby, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:50PM Sunday January 16, 2022 5:08 AM EST (10:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:28PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 350 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.storm warning in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E early this afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Rain and chance of snow in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Mon..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 350 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Arctic high pressure over the northeast moves offshore today. Meanwhile, an intensifying low over the southeast will track north and pass west of the forecast waters tonight, and then to the north Monday. The storm system lifts into southeast canada Monday night as high pressure builds into the area through Tuesday. A quick moving frontal system passes Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by high pressure late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Derby, CT
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location: 41.32, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 160607 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 107 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. Arctic high pressure settles just north of the area tonight before moving offshore on Sunday. Meanwhile, a developing low pressure system over the southeast will track north and intensify as it passes just west of the area Sunday night into Monday. The storm system lifts into southeast Canada Monday night as high pressure builds into the area through Tuesday. A quick moving frontal system passes Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by high pressure late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Forecast remains on track this evening with only minor adjustments made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints. Arctic high pressure will continue to build into the region this evening, settling just north of the area overnight. While this will allow winds to diminish, even colder air will move into the region. Overnight lows will fall into the teens in New York City, and into the single digits most elsewhere. There is a good chance that temperatures dip below zero across typically colder locations in the Lower Hudson Valley, Long Island Pine Barrens, and interior southern Connecticut. With winds remaining less than 10 mph, wind chill values will remain closer to the actual air temperatures tonight, generally ranging from -5 to +5 late tonight into early Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. The daytime hours on Sunday will remain dry, although clouds will increase as high pressure moves offshore and low pressure over the southeastern U.S. tracks northward towards the area. As it does so, winds will shift to the east, ushering in noticeably warmer air by afternoon, especially across Long Island, coastal Connecticut, and the New York City metro. As the low tracks northward, precipitation is expected to overspread the area towards evening, continuing through Sunday night as the low passes to the west before ending during the day on Monday as a dry slot develops over the region.

By the time precipitation begins Sunday evening, temperatures across Long Island, New York City, and much of coastal Connecticut are expected to be in the mid 30s. While precipitation may briefly start as snow in these locations, with the entire column warming rapidly any snow should quickly transition to rain, with little to no accumulation expected. Slightly farther inland a coating to perhaps 2" of snow is possible before temperatures warm and precipitation transitions to plain rain. The best chances for more prolonged snowfall continue to be well inland across Orange, Putnam, and Western Passaic counties where 2-5 inches of snow could fall, highest north and west, before transitioning. In addition to the snow, the NAM continues to depict a pronounced warm nose for several hours overnight, so a period of freezing rain is also possible for these locations prior to a transition to plain rain towards daybreak Monday. With this in mind, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these locations. Overall liquid equivalent precipitation amounts will range from 1-2", with rain possibly becoming heavy at times overnight Sunday into early Monday morning, especially near the coast.

Winds will also be a concern with this system, with a 60-80 kt low level jet developing and crossing the area between midnight and 10am. There are still some questions about how much of these winds are able to mix down to the surface, and overall the period of the highest gusts look brief, but wind gusts of 55-60 mph are possible especially across eastern Long Island and far southeastern Connecticut. With this in mind, a High Wind Watch has been issued for eastern Suffolk County in New York and southern New London County in Connecticut. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the rest of Long Island, NYC, southern Westchester, and the Connecticut coast, where winds are expected to gust to 45-50 mph for a period late Sunday night into Monday morning. On Monday, winds will quickly shift to the southwest during the morning as the low pulls off to the northeast, remaining gusty through the day.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. No major changes to the forecast Monday night through the rest of the week.

The storm system lifts up into southeast Canada Monday night with a strong pressure gradient left in its wake. A gusty NW flow will result in strong CAA Monday night. Temperatures will fall back into and through the 20s in all likelihood, with wind chills down mostly in the teens into Tuesday morning. The pressure gradient relaxes on Tuesday as high pressure settles nearby, resulting in a good amount of sunshine and slightly below normal temperatures through Tuesday night.

A return flow gets established on Wednesday with the high pushing offshore. A warm front extending down into the region from a clipper system pushing through the Great Lakes will bring increasing clouds. Temperatures will turn a bit milder and should be a few degrees above normal. The clipper low then moves to the north late Wednesday and Wednesday night, dragging its frontal system across the region. This should be all primarily northern branch energy with little moisture to work with. Perhaps there will be a few rain and snow showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night, but the frontal system should come through without any meaningful precipitation. By Thursday, a large 1040 mb high will move into the the nation's mid section and will build east through Friday. This will provide a return to much colder conditions, with noticeably colder air moving in for Thursday night into Friday. At the present time, it does not appear to be as cold as recent cold waves. Temperatures should however run about 10 degrees or so below normal by Thursday night and Friday. Highs on Friday may not get out of the 20s region wide.

Model spread and uncertainty is high to start next weekend. The high may remain over the area with shortwave energy developing low pressure off the Carolinas. Used the NBM for Saturday given the time range and plenty of time to monitor deterministic and ensemble trends.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

***HIGH IMPACT STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING***

VFR through the first half of Sunday as high pressure gradually builds over the area tonight. High pressure will slide east on Sunday as low pressure approaches from the south.

MVFR cigs move into the region around 20z Sunday as low pressure starts to approach. Flight categories lower even further by, or just after 00z Monday as precipitation enters the region. In addition to the lowered flight categories, expect an increasing easterly flow and low level wind shear as a strong low level jet moves over the region.

For the NYC metros/coast: Snow quickly changing over to rain in the evening. E winds 15-20G25kt in the evening, increasing after midnight to 20-30G40-45kt, with LLWS.

At KHPN: Snow changing to rain after midnight, E winds increasing to 20G40kt late, with LLWS.

At KSWF: Snow mixing with sleet/freezing rain after midnight and changing to rain late. E winds increasing to 15G30kt late, with LLWS possible.

Runway snow accumulations: none KISP/KJFK/KLGA, little to none KGON/KBDR, up to an inch KEWR/KTEB/KHPN, 3-4 inches KSWF.

N winds will continue to gradually diminish this evening. Winds veer to the NE late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds then become E-SE and increase to around 10 kt along the coast by afternoon. E-SE winds increase after 00z 13-20kt with gusts 20-30kt. Gusts increase even further after 05z Monday with gusts around 40kt for the NYC terminals.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Uncertainty to exact wind direction Sunday afternoon/evening. Winds may be more SE than forecast. Timing of precipitation changes may be off by an hour or two.

. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY . Monday. Rain with MVFR to IFR cond, possibly mixing with or changing back to snow in the afternoon before ending. Winds at the NYC metros: SE winds 15-20G30kt, becoming SW G25kt by afternoon. Winds at KISP/KBDR/KGON: E 20-25G40-45kt early, becoming SW 15G25- 30kt by afternoon. LLWS still likely at KGON early. Winds at KHPN/KSWF: E 15G25-35kt, becoming SW 10G20kt by afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday. Mainly VFR. W-NW winds 15G25kt. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20-25kt in the evening. Wednesday. VFR. SW winds G15-20kt. Wednesday night. Chance of snow showers with MVFR or lower cond, mainly KSWF/KGON. Thursday. Mainly VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. While winds will continue to diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the region, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters through the overnight as seas will remain elevated.

With high pressure centered north of the waters Sunday morning, sub- SCA conditions are expected during the day. This will be shortlived, however, as both winds and seas rapidly increase Sunday evening ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. As this low passes west of the waters Sunday night into Monday morning, expect winds to increase to gale force on all waters, with gusts to storm force possible on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet and on the Long Island Sound east of the mouth of the Connecticut River. A Storm Watch is now in effect for these zones for Sunday night into Monday morning, with a Gale Warning in effect elsewhere.

Gales may continue on the ocean Monday night with SCA elsewhere. SCA conditions should then continue into Tuesday before winds diminish late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Ocean seas will remain elevated Monday night into Tuesday and subside Tuesday night. After sub SCA conditions early Wednesday morning, look for small craft conditions to return out on the ocean and perhaps the eastern LI sound during the afternoon on a SW flow.

HYDROLOGY. 1-2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation is expected Sunday night through Monday. Much of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain along the coast. Rain could be heavy at times Sunday night into early Monday morning, which could result in minor nuisance flooding. Farther north, at least some of the precipitation is expected to fall as a wintry mix and/or snow.

The Wallkill River at Gardiner stage may be impacted by ice.

No hydrologic impacts anticipated Monday night through Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Potential for widespread moderate to possibly locally major coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide .

With an upcoming storm system moving up from the south Sunday night into Monday and with the approach of a full moon, there will be increasing potential for coastal flooding during and around times of high tide going into Monday morning. The Monday daytime coastal flooding looks to be quite widespread with the possibility of moderate to locally major coastal flooding. At this time, looks like the highest of E-SE winds are late Sunday night with winds becoming more southerly Monday morning and decreasing in speed. This will lead to higher surge farther east where winds will be higher and have more easterly component for a longer time leading up to the time of high tide.

Winds substantially increase out of the E-SE Sunday night into early Monday adding to the surge component, effectively piling more water along the coastlines. Ekman transport will also result in higher water levels along coastline. Forecast surge of 2 to 4 feet early Monday will allow for this widespread coastal flooding. A coastal flood watch remains in effect for all coastal zones. Latest guidance indicates that perhaps the CT side of the Long Island Sound shore has a chance of reaching major coastal flood benchmarks, and perhaps a few locations along the South Shore Bays as well as along Peconic Bay.

Overall, after assessing the Saturday daytime model surge guidance, looks like the worst of the coastal flooding will be along the Long Island Sound shorelines on the CT side, South Shore Bays and along the ocean shorelines as well. Water levels forecast are trending lower for some locations across lower NY Harbor and the Battery, putting those locations more in the minor coastal flood category as opposed to the moderate coastal flood category. However, subtle changes like trends higher with wind speeds, more easterly wind direction as well as closer to the time of high tide Monday would result in model trends increasing with surge.

New surge forecast taken from an average of ETSS, ESTOFS, and near the 75th percentile of NY HOPS surge ensemble available from Stevens Institute, our previous surge forecast along with some further adjustments upward. Decided to use total ESTOFS for some Eastern Long Island locations which indicated higher surge. The ETSS guidance has trended downward significantly from their forecasts that were issued yesterday especially for more western shorelines including locations along NY Harbor. Not as much change for ESTOFS and NY HOPS surge ensemble between yesterday and today. Also, some of the guidance indicates two peaks in total water level Monday, with the greater wind forcing and water piling making for a higher water level than that experienced during the high tide for that particular location. Due to uncertainty with some significant changes in model forecasts as well as timing, keeping coastal flood watch but did start it slightly earlier. Start time is late Sunday night (08-09Z Monday) and continues until 15Z Monday for Manhattan and Lower NY Harbor shorelines and until 18Z Monday for the rest of the coastal zones.

Also, another coastal hazard will be the strong winds, high surf that would result erosion along the ocean beaches. Forecast ocean seas get to 10 to 15 ft late Sunday night through Monday.

EQUIPMENT. The KOKX radar remains down until further notice. Technicians are currently troubleshooting the issue.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for CTZ012. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for CTZ008>011. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for CTZ009>012. NY . Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for NYZ079>081-179. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for NYZ079-081. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ067-068. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for NYZ072-074-075-178. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for NYZ071-073-078-176-177. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for NJZ002. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-335-338-340-345. Storm Watch from this evening through Monday morning for ANZ332-350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ353-355.

SYNOPSIS . FEB/JE/DS NEAR TERM . FEB/BC/DS SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . JE/DS AVIATION . BC MARINE . FEB/JE/DS HYDROLOGY . FEB/JE/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 9 mi51 min NNE 12G14 7°F 35°F1030.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 11 mi51 min NNW 4.1G6 7°F 39°F1029.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Last 24 hrN15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT10 mi77 minN 710.00 miFair7°F-7°F52%1029.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi76 minN 610.00 miFair8°F-7°F50%1029.6 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT11 mi78 minN 810.00 miFair2°F-7°F65%1030.3 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi76 minN 810.00 miFair5°F-8°F54%1030.2 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT21 mi76 minWSW 310.00 miFair4°F-7°F60%1029.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN12N11N7N6N9N17
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2 days ago0N3N3N3NE3E3E5E6E5NE4E4NE4NE5NE4N5N6N8N8N7N9N9N7N10N8

Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:40 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:39 AM EST     5.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:14 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut, Tide feet
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4.4
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2.6
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6
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0.5
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0.4
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1.2
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2.6
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4


Tide / Current Tables for Milford Harbor, Connecticut
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Milford Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:46 AM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM EST     6.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:25 PM EST     6.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Milford Harbor, Connecticut, Tide feet
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6


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