Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:50PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 3:32 AM EST (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 1012 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain and snow likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1012 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A ridge of high pressure shifts through the region tonight into Wednesday. A cold front then approaches Wednesday night and passes through late with high pressure slowly building back in behind it on Thursday through Friday. Low pressure passes well south and east of the region Saturday, and another one possibly on Sunday into Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic, CT
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location: 41.34, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 190532 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1232 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure shifts through the region overnight into Wednesday. A cold front then approaches Wednesday night and passes through late with high pressure slowly building back in behind it on Thursday through Friday. Low pressure passes well south and east of the region Saturday, and another one possibly on Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure builds in for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Temperatures and dewpoints are on track with only minor adjustments to better match observed trends.

A surface ridge axis moves through the forecast area overnight. Mid to high level clouds eventually move in overnight, limiting radiational cooling. Temperatures will still fall into the teens across the northern suburbs and Pine Barrens region in spite of this. Lows in the 20s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Warm advection with increasing SW winds on Wednesday as the ridge axis moves farther out to sea and low pressure moves through the northern Great Lakes, tightening the pressure gradient. High temperatures end up above normal, even with plenty of cloud cover.

A cold front associated with the low to our north approaches Wednesday night - not passing through until late at night. Most of the moisture will actually be behind the front as a developing coupled upper jet structure puts the forecast area in a favorable region for enhanced lift. This brings the likelihood of precipitation for most of the area late Wednesday night into Thursday before precip shifts away to the east by Thursday night along with the jet lift.

Models continue to trend higher regarding liquid equivalent precip amounts for this event. Now expecting about a quarter to a third of an inch. Precip type with this setup will largely be determined by boundary layer temps. All models agree that freezing level heights start out too high for an all-snow event for most areas with the exception of some areas NW of NYC. Cold air advection with temperatures falling at the surface and aloft will then help rain change over to snow everywhere before mid-morning Thursday. This scenario could result in hazardous travel conditions for the Thursday morning commute with untreated roads becoming snow covered or even icy as temps drop below freeing. This could be mitigated somewhat for the city and coastal areas as surfaces may still be warm from the 40+ degree temps on Wednesday, and cold advection looks to be gradual (dropping to around freezing for Thursday morning). Will have to monitor these factors in high res models over the next 24 hrs. With the onset of precip late in the 3rd period and primarily a 4th period event, along with total accumulations under 3 inches expected, no headlines are being issued at this time. Will however continue to highlight potential impacts in the HWO.

Highs on Thursday will likely occur shortly after midnight, daytime temperatures will in the lower to middle 30s for coastal areas and upper 20s inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. A strong 1040 mb polar high pressure builds in Thursday night as the cold front continues to push off shore. Strong cold advection on a NNW flow will bring temperatures into the single digits above zero inland, and teens along the coast.

Another round of frigid air for Friday as 850 temperatures range from -10 C to -12 C across the forecast area, leading to highs only in the upper teens in the Lower Hudson Valley, and 20s elsewhere.

Low pressure is expected to form along the old frontal boundary late Friday night. There has been some uncertainty as to the exact track of the low, which is expected this far out. Most long range models take the low well out to sea Saturday, with no real impacts to the area. The ECMWF had been more of a direct impact, however the newer model run trended farther south and east, which is in line with the other long range models. Additionally, less than 25% of the GEFS members show any real impact from the storm. Given the uncertainty, stayed close to the NBM for POPs, but they will likely trend downward in subsequent forecast if the more southeastern trend in the track continues.

As the low pushes away from the region, an upper level trough digs in the upper midwest. Another low off the southeast coast seen in the GFS and, to a much smaller and weaker extent, in the Canadian heads northeast and strengthens as the upper trough moves east. This low may impact the area Sunday. However, the GFS is the only long range model with a more direct impact to the area, and even less GEFS members show any significant precipitation as compared to the low for Saturday.

Weak high pressure will then build in for the beginning of the new work week.

Temperatures are expected to average well below normal for the entire long term, with overall troughiness over the Northeast.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure ridge moves over the area overnight into Wednesday. A frontal system then approaches with its cold front moving towards the area Wednesday night, moving across late at night.

VFR conditions expected through the day Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. NW winds of around 5-8 kt will eventually become more SW overnight into early Wednesday. A few terminals will have winds of 5 kt or less with variable direction overnight into early Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, SW flow increases to 10-15 kt with gusts of around 20-25 kt during the day. Some occasional peaks in gusts during the day of 30-35 kt will be possible. Winds will gradually subside Wednesday night with gusts diminishing and flow returning to near 5-10 kt while remaining SW.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Timing in TAF of switch of wind direction from NW to SW could be off by a few hours. Timing in TAF of gusts on Wednesday could be a few hours off as well.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday night-Thursday. Mainly snow at KSWF, otherwise rain for other terminals to start transitions to snow by early Thursday. MVFR to IFR conditions expected. Occasional sub-IFR conditions possible. All precipitation tapers off Thursday afternoon with a return to VFR conditions. NW wind gusts on Thursday 15-20 kt. Friday. VFR. N wind gusts around 15 kt. Friday night and Saturday. Chance of snow with MVFR or lower conditions. N-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday. Slight chance of snow with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. SCA level wind gusts have subsided across the waters but some SCA level seas remain on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. The small craft advisory is now in effect for the ocean from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point until 4AM Wednesday by which time, all ocean seas are expected to be below 5 ft.

SW pick up on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Small craft advisory conditions for wind gusts expected for all non-ocean waters Wednesday with a small craft advisory in effect from 7AM until 6PM Wednesday. Gales are expected on the ocean and they have a gale warning from 7AM until 6PM Wednesday. Some occasional gale force winds will be possible across parts of Eastern Long Island Sound.

Improving conditions Wednesday night, however advisory level conditions will still be likely on the ocean through most if not all of the night and can last into a portion of Thursday as well.

Winds on the coastal waters remain below SCA criteria through Friday, but increase on the ocean waters Friday night, with SCA likely late Friday night into Saturday as an area of low pressure passes well south and east of the coastal waters. Winds then diminish late Saturday and remain below SCA criteria for the rest of the long term.

5 ft waves on the ocean waters diminish on Friday, but then build again to 5 ft late Friday night in response to the low. Waves remain around 5 ft into Saturday, diminishing late in the day Saturday. Waves look to remain below SCA criteria for the rest of the forecast period.

HYDROLOGY. No significant precipitation is expected through the beginning of next week.

The river gauge at the Wallkill River at Gardiner may be impacted by ice.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350-353. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JP NEAR TERM . JC/JM/JP SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . JM/MET MARINE . JC/JM/JP HYDROLOGY . JC/JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 6 mi52 min N 5.1G7 25°F 1031.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi44 min 23°F 35°F1023.1 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi44 min 31°F 38°F1022.8 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 34 mi44 min NNW 2.9G4.1 22°F 37°F1022.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi44 min NNW 2.9G6 25°F 39°F1022.4 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 39 mi92 min W 7.8G9.7 31°F 41°F2 ft
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi107 min WNW 4.1 20°F 1023 hPa4°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi44 min N 1G2.9 23°F 1023.3 hPa
PRUR1 40 mi44 min 23°F 3°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi50 min 22°F 36°F1021.6 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi44 min N 4.1G6 22°F 33°F1022.6 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi44 min NNW 4.1G5.1 21°F 1022.7 hPa10°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi32 min WNW 9.7G12 33°F 1023.2 hPa20°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 49 mi44 min NNW 2.9G5.1 24°F 1022.5 hPa
FRXM3 49 mi44 min 24°F 7°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Last 24 hr
1 day
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2 days
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi36 minNNW 310.00 miFair19°F7°F59%1022.5 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI9 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair22°F5°F48%1022.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi38 minN 0 mi28°F16°F60%1022.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi36 minW 310.00 miFair24°F13°F62%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW14
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NW10NW11NW7NW5NW6NW6NW5NW6N3NE4N3
1 day agoE23
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2 days agoN8N3N6N4N4N9N43NE5E5E9E8NE7NE9NE10NE9NE9E19
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Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:04 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:37 AM EST     2.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:14 PM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet
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1.3
1
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1
2
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0.7
3
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0.4
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0.2
5
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0.4
6
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0.9
7
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1.6
8
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2.1
9
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2.4
10
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2.5
11
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2.2
12
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1.8
1
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1.2
2
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0.7
3
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0.3
4
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-0.1
5
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-0.1
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0.2
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0.8
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1.4
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1.8
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2
11
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1.9


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:11 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:05 AM EST     -2.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:07 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:01 AM EST     2.64 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:25 PM EST     -3.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:30 PM EST     2.65 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
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0.2
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-1.1
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-2.2
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-2.6
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-2.3
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2.6
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2.3
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1.4
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-2.2
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-1
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0.4
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1.7
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2.6
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2.6
11
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1.9


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