Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moscow, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:50PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:19 AM EDT (04:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 1:23PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1008 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1008 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches tonight and passes through Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will be followed by high pressure on Wednesday. Another cold front will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will then build in and remain to the north and west through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moscow , PA
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location: 41.35, -75.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 272342 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 742 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move through the area tonight through Tuesday morning, which will bring another round of scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Gradual clearing is then expected Tuesday afternoon as high pressure settles in for most of the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. 635 PM Update .

Short wave and associated cold front is still in Ontario, Canada and any shower activity is well north of the region. Best chance for showers across the area will be after midnight, so have cut back PoP quite a bit until then. Will have to monitor the potential for thunderstorm development towards dawn on Tuesday across NE PA and possibly into the Southern Tier. Models are indicating steep mid-level lapse rates near 8C/km with an EML plume crossing from west to east across PA early Tuesday. Depending on the timing of the short wave, thunderstorms could develop across Central PA and push eastward across our area through the early morning hours. Best chance for any thunderstorms will be our far southern zones.

350 PM Update .

A shortwave trough and an associated surface cold front will move through the area tonight through Tuesday morning. This will bring scattered showers to the area along with increasing clouds. Increasing lapse rates and some elevated instability may allow for a rumble of thunder overnight, but current thinking is that this will be so isolated that it is not worth putting thunder into the forecast until after daybreak Tuesday or so. A limiting factor is that the shortwave will lag behind the best lapse rates. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid 50s to near 60, with some upper 40s in northern Oneida County.

By daybreak on Tuesday, the front will likely already be located across Northeast PA and the Catskills. It is across those areas that there will be the best chance for additional scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Elsewhere, conditions will be drying out from northwest to southeast, along with gradual clearing in the afternoon as high pressure approaches from the west. Highs are expected to be in the mid 60s to near 70.

Tuesday night will be dry, but with a northwest flow developing, lake effect clouds will persist a bit southeast of Lake Ontario. Farther to the south, patchy valley fog is expected with decent radiational cooling conditions setting up. Lows are expected to be in the 40s for most of the area, with some upper 30s possible in the Catskills and northern Oneida County.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A large upper level low settles in from the north throughout this period. The upper level trough amplifies across our region on Wednesday, as the closed 500mb low drops south into northern New England. It appears mid level moisture will gradually increase through the day Wednesday as a shortwave disturbance drops south toward lake Ontario. This feature may pick up some lake moisture as well with a north to northwest flow. This moisture may be just enough for a few spotty showers. Overall, expect some strato- cumulus development across much of CNY and perhaps into NE PA by Wednesday afternoon, with a slight chance of showers now in the forecast for the NY Thruway corridor and points north. Breezy northwest winds 8-15 mph and gusty at times, with highs in the low to mid- 60s expected.

The upper low continues to spin and drop a bit further south, just east of the NY Capital region Wednesday night. This will bring more clouds and some scattered showers (lake enhanced) to the region. Moderate cold air advection continues, as 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 543-550dm across our CWA, and 850mb temps are around 0 to +2C. Therefore, it will not be a radiational cooling type of night, but the steady north wind at 6-12 mph and overnight lows in the 40s will make it feel quite cool still. Any showers look to be on the light side at this time and across eastern portions of the area closer to the low track.

Excellent model agreement now, that the closed low slowly drifts east across central New England Thursday into Thursday night. This will keep our area on the cools western side of the low, with a continued northerly flow regime. There may still be enough moisture around for isolated lake enhanced showers and some clouds on Thursday . but drying occurs by Thursday night as upper level heights rise and the ridge moves in from the west. Unseasonably cool Thursday and Thursday night, with forecast soundings showing a rather strong inversion developing just above 850mb later Thursday & Thursday night. Daytime highs only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s (mid-60s Wyoming Valley). As a surface high moves in Thursday night, this should allow for good radiational cooling conditions to develop. Expecting valley fog and cool overnight lows between 35-45. A few locations may get cool enough for the first frost of the season early Friday morning. Went on the cooler end of model guidance given the favorable setup for radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. 345 AM Update

Blocky upper level pattern continues into Friday . and although the upper level ridge across the central Great Lakes slowly presses east . there may be one final piece of upper level energy diving south into eastern New England. This shouldn't have much of an impact on our sensible weather, other than to perhaps bring some clouds to our eastern zones, and keep the cool northerly flow going. Highs on Friday are forecast to be 2-4 degrees warmer than Thursday; reaching 60-65 for most areas. Good model agreement that the upper level ridge and associated surface high will move into our area Friday night and Saturday. This should bring another cool quiet night, with lows back down into the upper 30s to mid-40s. Dry and partly sunny on Saturday with seasonable high temperatures.

Model differences start to be seen by Sunday/Monday; however at this point in time it is looking mainly dry . with a flat ridge over the region. For the official forecast went close to the ensemble blend (NBM) which gave partly cloudy and seasonable weather conditions, and only a slight chance for showers on occasion. Highs back in the 60s to around 70 with lows mid-40s to lower 50s. A few of the operational 12Z model runs did come a bit further north with a low pressure tracking through the mid- atlantic. For now, will keep from flip-flopping given this is still several days out. Temperatures could very well trend warmer than NBM has if the sunnier outcome occurs.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions prevail for the next several hours before ceilings start to lower with an approaching cold front. MVFR ceilings settle in between 06Z and 09Z across central NY, and finally by sunrise at KAVP. Some drops down to IFR are possible at KELM and KBGM around sunrise. Lower ceilings gradually lift to VFR into the late morning and afternoon behind the front. A few showers will be possible overnight into early Tuesday, but will be most likely at KAVP after sunrise before dry weather returns into the afternoon.

Outlook .

Tuesday night through Saturday . Mainly VFR with potential late night-early morning valley fog at KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJG NEAR TERM . BJG/MPK SHORT TERM . MJM/MWG LONG TERM . MJM/MWG AVIATION . HLC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 95 mi49 min S 4.1 G 6 67°F 65°F1013 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 95 mi49 min SW 8.9 G 12 71°F 1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA7 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair61°F54°F78%1011.1 hPa
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA19 mi26 minWSW 910.00 miFair60°F52°F75%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAVP

Wind History from AVP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SW5Calm4SW3S5S5CalmSW3W7SW11
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1 day agoCalmCalmNW5W3N8CalmNW33W6CalmNW7NW7N8
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2 days agoE6E3E5E3CalmE3E3SE3Calm3SW44Calm6W7W5W9W5CalmSE3SE3SE3E4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Passaic, Passaic River, New Jersey
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Passaic
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Tue -- 01:50 AM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM EDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     5.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 10:21 PM EDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.74.94.53.93.12.62.52.42.22.33.24.55.55.85.54.843.43.12.92.41.82

Tide / Current Tables for Passaic, Passaic River, New Jersey (2)
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Passaic
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:12 AM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EDT     1.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:06 PM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 10:24 PM EDT     1.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.44.74.64.23.42.62.11.91.92.33.44.65.35.55.454.33.42.82.42.11.92

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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