Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elyria, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:26PM Sunday January 16, 2022 5:10 AM EST (10:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 7:11AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Expires:202201160315;;414447 Fzus51 Kcle 151957 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 257 Pm Est Sat Jan 15 2022 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>146-160315- The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 257 Pm Est Sat Jan 15 2022
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of snow early. Freezing spray through the early overnight. Waves in ice free areas 2 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 35 degrees, and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elyria, OH
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location: 41.37, -82.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 161006 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 506 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over southeastern Ontario will continue to build southeast across the eastern Great Lakes today before moving off to the northeast coast. Strong low pressure moves northeastward along the Appalachians Sunday through Monday, with a trough lingering over the southern Great Lakes into Tuesday. High pressure briefly builds north across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night before a fast moving low tracks east across the Great Lakes region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure centered over southern Ontario will drift off to the northeast coast this afternoon. A dry airmass associated with this high remains over the area through at least early this afternoon, allowing for some sunshine to bring temperatures up to near normal, with highs in the low to mid 30s.

But enough about today's weather . onto the significant snow storm we're all waiting for!

A deep upper-level low, currently over the deep south, will lift northeastward, generally along and east of the Appalachians through tonight, located over the northeast US by Monday afternoon. At 300mb, two jet streaks will influence the associated surface low as it approaches: a 110 kt jet streak at the base of the trough moving along the east coast, and a strengthening jet streak (from 80 to 110 kt) over the Great Lakes region and Ontario. The positioning of the jet streaks (right entrance of northern and left exit region of southern) will result in significant upper-level divergence and surface cyclogenesis. The associated surface low, near 1000 mb, will undergo rapid deepening to nearly 980 mb as it moves to central Pennsylvania by 12Z Monday. Intense moisture advection and lift fueled by a strong TROWAL (70-80 kts speeds at 850 mb) will contribute to abnormally high moisture content available for precipitation production. A deformation axis along with mid- level frontogensis will develop in the NW quadrant of the upper- level low, which will act to produce very heavy snow rates within the broad area of synoptic lift. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are very likely within this frontogenetical band.

Model guidance have decreased in spread, with confidence increasing in the location of axis of highest QPF. Latest model guidance puts a swath of >1" QPF across the far eastern tier of Ohio counties and upwards of 1.5" QPF for northwest Pennsylvania, with the axis of highest QPF generally located along a line from east-central Ohio to western New York. Latest trends in model data have a notable increase to QPF and a westward shift to the QPF axis. Because of these changes, have expanded the Winter Storm Warning westward to include Lake, Geauga, and Portage Counties, and the Winter Weather Advisory to include Cuyahoga, Medina, Summit, and Wayne Counties. Snow totals in general have been increased, with the max amount of 12-18" possible across northwest Pennsylvania and 10-14" for the eastern tier of Ohio Counties. If the western trend observed in the past several runs of model guidance continues, then further westward expansion of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories may be needed. Trends in model guidance will need to be monitored today.

Strong winds at 850 mb may lead to 850 mb temperatures approaching or slightly exceeding 0 C in the far southeast parts of the CWA during the early stages of the snow this evening. If this occurs, some sleet could mix in briefly, before dynamical cooling associated with intense snowfall rates, overcomes the warmer temperatures aloft. Additionally, these warmer temperatures may bring snow-to-liquid ratios to below normal climatologically for the area to around 8-10:1. Areas that receive over a foot of this heavy, wet snow may have moderate impacts from snow load in the form of tree damage and power outages.

The the low pulls away on Monday, synoptic lift and moisture exits the area from west to east during the day. Once the 850mb low passes to the east (by 09Z Monday), flow in the lowest levels turns to out of the north bringing in colder air, resulting in some lake enhanced snow continuing through the day Monday for the snowbelt region. This will contribute to higher snow totals for the snowbelt area. Strong northwest winds also develops during the afternoon/evening, with gusts of up to 25-30 knots. This could cause blowing snow with the lighter, lake- enhanced snow that falls during the day Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. By Monday night, inversion heights gradually lower to around 6K feet with a very dry airmass aloft. This will result in decreasing intensity of lake effect snow showers. Some contribution from the upstream lakes is expected to start the night but the influence will decrease as the night progresses as a ridge of surface high pressure extends into central lower Michigan. Additional light accumulations are expected but potential for any heavier bands should decrease with the lowering inversion heights by 06Z when the winter storm warnings expires. Lingering snow showers will become focused into Pennsylvania by Tuesday morning and then trend closer to the lakeshore as low level flow backs. Accumulating snow should come to an end by 18Z Tuesday.

Warm advection does get underway Tuesday afternoon and western portions of the area are expected to reach the mid 30s. Eastern areas will be 10 or more degrees cooler given the fresh snow pack. The warm up continues into Wednesday as a fairly compact low pressure system moves east across the upper lakes, with many sites approaching 40 degrees. Some melting of the snowpack is likely, especially in north central Ohio where dewpoints are expected to climb near or above freezing. Less melting is likely where the heaviest snow had fallen in far NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania. The warm up will be short lived as the low quickly departs to the east with an arctic airmass arriving with the cold front as the upper trough deepens across the eastern United States. Any precipitation with the frontal passage will be light followed by potential for lake effect snows as instability increases across the Great Lakes. Moisture will be limited by the dry post-frontal airmass.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Models have been consistent in bringing an arctic airmass to the region on Thursday with 850mb temperatures of -18 to -20C. Given the cold airmass, went closer to raw model values for forecast highs on Thursday with many areas seeing steady temperatures in the teens. Minimum temperatures on Thursday night will be influenced by the degree of clearing as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Radiational cooling may be quite favorable in some locations and temperatures near zero are not out of the question. Surface high pressure will result in mostly dry conditions on Friday. By next weekend, we will be monitoring the interaction of southern stream jet energy with the longwave trough over the eastern United States.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/. VFR being observed across TAF sites is expected to continue through Sunday afternoon with the exception of KTOL where some MVFR lake effect clouds may be around through 08Z.

By Sunday evening, a major winter snow storm will approach from the south. A reduction in ceilings and visibilities is expected after Sunday evening/night with moderate/heavy snow expected at KYNG, KCAK, and KERI. Light to moderate snow will occur at KCLE and KMFD. Currently have visibilities down to less than 1 SM but no lower than 1/2 SM for now. It's likely though that the TAF sites that experience heavy snow will likely have at least several hours of visibility down to 1/4 SM, but would likely to get closer to event to nail down timing before putting that in the TAF. Snow accumulations are expected to be around 1-2" by 06Z Sunday at KCAK, KYNG, and KERI and near an inch near KCLE and KMFD. No snow, (and thus full VFR conditions), are expected at KTOL and KFDY.

Outlook . Non-VFR expected with widespread snow across eastern OH/northwestern PA Sunday night into Monday. Additional non- VFR conditions in lake effect snow expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Clipper system is expected to bring additional non-VFR conditions across northeast OH and northwest PA Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly with snow.

MARINE. The area will be between high pressure over New England and a strengthening low pressure system that will track up the East Coast tonight. East to southeast winds today will back to the north tonight and increase to 15 to 25 knots late. North to northwest winds will increase to 30 knots on Monday and Small Craft Advisories will be needed for areas east of the Lake Erie Islands beginning early Monday morning and continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Given the strong onshore flow, waves are expected to reach 5 to 9 feet.

A ridge will build over Lake Erie on Tuesday with winds backing to southerly. The next low pressure will track east across the Upper Great Lakes early Wednesday, pulling an arctic cold front across Lake Erie Wednesday night into Thursday. Another round of Small Craft Advisories can be expected with this frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ012>014-089. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for OHZ011. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ020-021-031-038-047. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for OHZ022-023-032-033. PA . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001>003. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Saunders SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . KEC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LORO1 9 mi41 min E 9.9G12 17°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 21 mi86 min ENE 1.9 10°F 1023 hPa6°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 23 mi71 min E 8.9G13 18°F 1019.3 hPa
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 28 mi53 min 0G4.1 14°F 39°F1021.7 hPa0°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 35 mi53 min E 8G9.9 20°F 33°F1020.2 hPa5°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 43 mi71 min E 7G9.9 20°F 1022.3 hPa (-1.9)
CMPO1 49 mi101 min E 6G7 18°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Last 24 hrE11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH4 mi78 minENE 310.00 miFair10°F3°F73%1022.7 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH13 mi80 minE 710.00 miFair14°F3°F61%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNE11
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NE13NE12NE12NE9E12E12NE13NE13NE11NE10NE11NE9NE6E6E6E6E5E5E5E4E3E3SE3
1 day agoNE8N7N7NE9N8N8N7N15
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N10N13N11N12N11NE11NE8NE10NE10NE10NE10NE10NE11NE9
2 days ago0SE3S4S3S6S40NE3N7NE6NE6N8NE6NE7NE7NE7N8N9N8N9N10N8N8N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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