Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Middle, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:54PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:38 PM EDT (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 9:16AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 119 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
This afternoon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers and slight chance of tstms early, then showers likely with slight chance of tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S after midnight. Occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 119 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low press slowly weakens within the great lakes today. An associated cold front moves across late tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the front late Friday into Saturday. High pressure remains in control through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middle, NY
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location: 41.45, -74.44     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 231727 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 127 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Parent low slowly weakens within the Great Lakes today. An associated cold front will be slowly approaching the region. The cold front moves across late tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the front late Friday into Saturday. High pressure remains in control of the weather through Monday. A cold front approaches on Tuesday and passes through during the night, followed by high pressure building in for Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. For the 18Z update, increased winds across the area for this aftn and eve with the lljet approaching. Some gusts up to 40 mph possible, with KLGA and KTEB peaking at 35 kt already. Added less cloud cover initially for ern areas, but clouds are increasing from the w ahead of the main area of pcpn.

Sct shwrs have begun to develop from CT to NJ, mainly away from the coasts. Cell speed was about 25kt based on radar which is faster than modeled in the NAM. Although locally hvy rainfall is possible with any of the cells, no flood threat is expected in the near term unless multiple rounds of pcpn develop across the same area. Pwat on the 12z OKX sounding was 1.12 inches due to dry air in the mid lvls.

A cold front will be slowly moving eastward from central PA and central NY state to eastern PA near the NJ border by the start of the evening. During this time period, breezy SE flow continues across the local forecast region with widely scattered showers into early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, numerous showers are expected towards NYC and locations north and west, while to the east, showers remain widely scattered. Also by late afternoon, instability will be increasing in the so a few thunderstorms will be possible and will have in forecast as a slight chance. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain as airmass will be warm and humid. The heaviest of the showers will likely still be west of NYC by the start of the evening.

Regarding the warm and humid airmass, precipitable waters will be increasing to around 2 inches for NYC, Nassau, SW CT and to the west through NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. This precipitable water value will be well above the OKX sounding climatology's 90th percentile for this time of year, which is just over 1.5 inches.

Abundant clouds, breezy SE winds, and higher shower coverage will limit the high temperatures. Went with a consensus of raw model data and NBM, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/. For tonight through Friday, the cold front approaches near and eventually moves across the region. Bulk of the rain expected tonight into early Friday morning with heavy rain likely at times. The precipitable water remains near 2 inches for the western half of the region and decreases slightly to near 1.8 inches for the eastern half of the region. There will be scattered embedded thunderstorms from time to time with elevated instability expected with Showalter Indices near -1 to -2. Bulk shear from 0-6km above the ground increases to 25-35 kt so some thunderstorms could be severe with strong wind gusts. Also, there is indication within the HRRR for some updraft helicity within certain areas, particularly north and west of NYC so an isolated tornado will be possible. This is from the directional shear from southeast to more south within the low levels. Both the factors for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are higher for western half of the region compared to the eastern half of the region.

For NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, Nassau, SW CT, heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms expected from the evening into the first half of the overnight (22Z-06Z Friday). For Suffolk and the rest of Southern CT, heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms expected (03Z-12Z Friday), although the intensity is forecast to be a little less with precipitable waters slightly decreasing as well as less bulk shear 0-6km above the ground (20-25 kt).

Specifically, looking at mesoscale models such as the HRRR, indicates potential for up to 1 inch per hour rates at times with showers developing and moving south to north across the region as the cold front slowly moves east. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms move across and this "training" of convection will occur due to nearly parallel southerly flow from low to upper levels.

About 2 inches of rain is indicated to fall during a 3-4 hour period according to the HRRR model. Locally higher amounts of rain will be possible. Flash flood watch currently covers NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, Nassau and Southern Fairfield. The same heavy rain potential and quick accumulations seem also probable for Northern Fairfield so flash flood watch was expanded to include that additional zone. New Haven CT and Western Suffolk NY may also get some flash flooding but line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be weakening as it moves across and felt any flash flooding would be more isolated in these zones so at this time left these zones out of the flash flood watch.

In addition, HREF also indicates potential for one inch per hour rain rates and conveys ensemble max 3 hour precipitation that reaches 2 to 3 inches in locations within the western half of the forecast region. To the east, closer to 2 inches in 3 hours. HREF indicates very low chance (20 percent) for rain rates to exceed 1 inch per hour.

For mid to late Friday afternoon, instability will have shift east of the region as will the higher precipitable waters of 1.7 to 1.8 inches. This will be coincident with the eastward movement across the region of the cold front. Shower intensity will be trending lower and thunderstorm chances will diminish. Outside of Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut where showers will linger into the late afternoon, mainly dry conditions are expected to the west mid to late Friday afternoon. Winds will shift to a more westerly direction on Friday and decrease to near 5 to 10 mph.

For Friday night, high pressure builds in from the west. Surface winds become more westerly in the evening, then more northerly overnight. Dry conditions are expected with negative vorticity advection in the mid levels. Clouds are expected to decrease.

For Saturday, a longwave trough approaches from the west with high pressure at the surface weakening across the region. Some height falls at 500mb with some positive vorticity advection will allow for some more cloud development. Light northerly surface flow in the morning will become more variable in the afternoon with sea breeze circulations likely to develop. Mainly dry conditions are expected.

Lows tonight consensus of raw model data from upper 50s north and west of NYC to lower 70s for Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut where cold front will still be ahead of by daybreak Friday.

Highs Friday are a blend of NBM and consensus of MOS with highs in the low to mid 70s. NBM and CONSMOS blend was used for lows Friday night and highs Saturday which will be near normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Showers may linger across eastern LI and SE CT for the first half of Saturday night as the cold front will be slow to shift east. High pressure meanwhile slowly builds in from the west.

An upper trough axis approaches Saturday night and shifts through during Sunday. The cyclonic flow aloft will promote some cumulus development, but that appears to be the extent of it as moisture looks too limited for precipitation. Another weak upper level trough moves through, but this looks to be mainly south of the area, and not associated with any precipitation.

The ECMWF and Canadian models show a cut off low that becomes semi- permanent Monday night over southeast Canada which is due to a weak low developing along the old frontal boundary, while the GFS pushes this low east of the area. This is leading to disagreement among the global models through the mid week period. Timing and placement differences are shown regarding longwave-troughing and shortwave energy reaching the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and the resulting surface features. It currently appears that a cold front, surface trough, or even a developing low pressure system moves through during Tuesday night or Wednesday. Despite the spread in solution, all models are showing some precipitation in some portion of the area.

Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal through the long term period, with relatively low humidity levels.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A cold front slowly approaches this afternoon and into tonight. Then pushes east of the NYC terminals by Friday morning.

VFR conditions for most terminals with MVFR ceilings expected after 21Z (western terminals) today and moving slowly from west to east through tonight as the cold front approaches. This is a low confidence forecast, and conditions may lower much earlier than forecast.

Scattered showers are possible through late afternoon, except at KSWF where showers are possible most of today, and a chance of thunderstorms, mainly after 00Z Thursday. Timing of widespread showers will be dependent on the timing of an approaching cold front.

Wind SE to S 10 to 15 kt. Frequent gusts 20 to 25 kt this afternoon, will diminish to around 10kt by 00Z tonight.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments expected for changing flight categories, especially late tonight. Low confidence forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Fri. MVFR or lower possible in showers. Showers ending at night, west to east, with gradual improvement to VFR. SW to W winds near 10 kt. Gusts 15 to 20 kt at KGON in the morning. Sat-Mon. VFR. Tue. VFR then possible MVFR in showers during the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Tight pressure gradient sets up between offshore high and low pressure to the west with associated cold front approaching. SE winds increase to 15 to 20 kt today with gusts in the 25 to 35 kt range for all waters that will continue into tonight. Strongest gusts nearshore. For Friday, SCA remains just for the ocean with lingering higher seas as pressure gradient weakens with cold front moving across and weakening. Sub-SCA conditions on all waters is expected Friday night through Saturday.

Winds remain below 25 kt from Saturday night onward, though occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible on the eastern ocean zone Sunday night.

Waves will remain below 5 ft through Saturday night. Waves build to 5 ft again on the ocean Sunday into Sunday night as a west-southwest to west flow increases. Waves diminish Monday.

HYDROLOGY. No flooding expected through this morning.

Flash flooding possible late this afternoon for locations north and west of NYC and for NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT tonight. Minor flooding possible farther east across Suffolk County on Long Island and New Haven through New London CT, particularly in low lying and poor drainage areas for overnight tonight into Friday morning.

Storm total rainfall will be between 1 and 2 inches with localized higher amounts between 2 and 3 inches, particularly north and west of NYC where there could be some enhancement of rainfall with orographic lift.

No hydrologic concerns Friday night through next Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A high risk for the development of rip currents continues today through Friday for the ocean beaches. Long period swells from the southeast will allow for ocean seas to remain in the range of 4 to 6 ft during this time.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for CTZ005-009. NY . Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NYZ067>075- 176>179. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ . Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-340- 345. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 37 mi69 min SSE 11 79°F 1014 hPa68°F
TKPN6 47 mi69 min SSE 8.9 G 12 76°F 74°F1013.4 hPa69°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 48 mi69 min NE 1 76°F 1013 hPa72°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 54 mi54 min SSE 19 79°F 71°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 57 mi54 min SSE 19 G 25 78°F 69°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY10 mi45 minSSE 16 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F67°F71%1012.4 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY18 mi54 minSSE 10 G 257.00 miLight Showers Rain77°F70°F79%1013.9 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ19 mi46 minSE 710.00 miOvercast76°F70°F82%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGJ

Wind History from MGJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4SE45S5SE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3NE4NE4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmSE4S8S7S12
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2 days agoSW5SE73S5S8S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:57 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.633.232.51.710.50.10.10.71.72.533.23.22.82.11.40.90.40.20.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for West Point, Hudson River, New York
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West Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:31 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:51 PM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.52.62.31.81.20.60.200.20.91.62.22.52.62.52.11.510.60.30.30.71.3

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