Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laporte, PA
May 2, 2024 6:58 AM EDT (10:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:17 AM Moonset 12:35 PM |
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 021017 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 617 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity continues for today and most or all of Friday
-Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Tranquil conditions with mainly clear skies cover the entire forecast area early this morning. Surface T/Td spreads of several deg F or more are negating any notable valley fog development.
Temps to start the day will be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of a weak/dry cold front front that was sliding across the NW Mtns of PA at 09Z.
Daybreak readings will range from 45F to 50F throughout the higher rural valleys of Central PA, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
The aforementioned weak cold front will bring primarily a few to several deg F drop in sfc dewpoints today, yielding another excellent vsby day with abundant sunshine. This frontal boundary will settle just south of the Mason Dixon Line by this afternoon as the associated shortwave passes off the New England Coast and upper level ridging sharpens and crests over PA tonight.
Vertical mixing of model 850mb temps in the 12-14C range will equate to highs ranging from the mid 70s over the N Mtns, to the mid 80s in the Southern Valleys, which are 10-15 degrees higher than what we normally see for early May.
A nearly east/west band of low level convergence and higher humidity is depicted via the latest HRRR near the Mason/Dixon line this afternoon yielding MU CAPE values of a few to several hundred j/kg.
A weak capping inversion and very dry air above 800mb suggests any convection is very unlikely there.
The very dry air above the weak inversion aloft supports undercutting NBM dewpoints this afternoon over the central and northern part of the forecast area. We continued to employ a blend of the NBM and the much lower numbers obtained from the MixedDewpoint Tool.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Sfc and upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over PA for most or all of the daylight hours Friday. Clouds will increase across the Western part of the CWA later Friday afternoon, bringing the chance of a few showers near and to the west of the RT 219 corridor after 21Z Friday.
Southeasterly flow will develop across much of the CWA Friday as the center of sfc high pressure exits stage right off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will lead to cooler daytime highs - mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A frontal boundary will slowly make it's way eastward from the Midwest across the Commonwealth this weekend, accompanied by showers and storms. The best chc of wet weather will be across western PA Fri night, before expanding eastward Saturday into Sunday.
Looking to the first half of next week, the front should pull east of the region on Monday, taking the widespread shower/storm activity with it. Tuesday into Wednesday, a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley should bring an increasing chc of showers/storms.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
There will be some high and mid-level clouds passing overhead this morning as a weak area of low pressure passes to our north and pushes a weak/dry cold front south across the Mason Dixon Line. An upper ridge will build overhead through the rest of the day, producing a clear afternoon. Sfc winds will become W to NW, and could gust 15-20 kts by aftn. Tranquil weather will persist through tonight with diminishing winds.
Outlook...
Fri...VFR with increasing high clouds.
Fri evening - Sat AM...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east w/ reductions possible.
Sat PM-Sun...Widespread restrictions across the central and western mountains due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.
Mon...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 617 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity continues for today and most or all of Friday
-Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Tranquil conditions with mainly clear skies cover the entire forecast area early this morning. Surface T/Td spreads of several deg F or more are negating any notable valley fog development.
Temps to start the day will be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of a weak/dry cold front front that was sliding across the NW Mtns of PA at 09Z.
Daybreak readings will range from 45F to 50F throughout the higher rural valleys of Central PA, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
The aforementioned weak cold front will bring primarily a few to several deg F drop in sfc dewpoints today, yielding another excellent vsby day with abundant sunshine. This frontal boundary will settle just south of the Mason Dixon Line by this afternoon as the associated shortwave passes off the New England Coast and upper level ridging sharpens and crests over PA tonight.
Vertical mixing of model 850mb temps in the 12-14C range will equate to highs ranging from the mid 70s over the N Mtns, to the mid 80s in the Southern Valleys, which are 10-15 degrees higher than what we normally see for early May.
A nearly east/west band of low level convergence and higher humidity is depicted via the latest HRRR near the Mason/Dixon line this afternoon yielding MU CAPE values of a few to several hundred j/kg.
A weak capping inversion and very dry air above 800mb suggests any convection is very unlikely there.
The very dry air above the weak inversion aloft supports undercutting NBM dewpoints this afternoon over the central and northern part of the forecast area. We continued to employ a blend of the NBM and the much lower numbers obtained from the MixedDewpoint Tool.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Sfc and upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over PA for most or all of the daylight hours Friday. Clouds will increase across the Western part of the CWA later Friday afternoon, bringing the chance of a few showers near and to the west of the RT 219 corridor after 21Z Friday.
Southeasterly flow will develop across much of the CWA Friday as the center of sfc high pressure exits stage right off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will lead to cooler daytime highs - mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A frontal boundary will slowly make it's way eastward from the Midwest across the Commonwealth this weekend, accompanied by showers and storms. The best chc of wet weather will be across western PA Fri night, before expanding eastward Saturday into Sunday.
Looking to the first half of next week, the front should pull east of the region on Monday, taking the widespread shower/storm activity with it. Tuesday into Wednesday, a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley should bring an increasing chc of showers/storms.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
There will be some high and mid-level clouds passing overhead this morning as a weak area of low pressure passes to our north and pushes a weak/dry cold front south across the Mason Dixon Line. An upper ridge will build overhead through the rest of the day, producing a clear afternoon. Sfc winds will become W to NW, and could gust 15-20 kts by aftn. Tranquil weather will persist through tonight with diminishing winds.
Outlook...
Fri...VFR with increasing high clouds.
Fri evening - Sat AM...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east w/ reductions possible.
Sat PM-Sun...Widespread restrictions across the central and western mountains due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.
Mon...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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