Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laporte, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:53PM Monday September 27, 2021 3:06 AM EDT (07:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 12:30PM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte , PA
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location: 41.46, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 270235 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1035 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Fall weather pattern in full swing across central PA as the calendar flips from September to October. A few rain showers later Monday into Tuesday, otherwise dry and seasonable conditions with cool nights for the rest of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Satellite loop at 0230Z shows broken mid level cloudiness streaming into northern Pa in advance of a warm front lifting through the Grt Lks. Satellite trends and model RH fields suggest skies will be mostly cloudy on balance tonight across northern Pa and becoming partly cloudy in the south.

Upstream radar is showing a batch of showers over Lake Huron just in advance of a mid level vort max. As this feature dives east-southeast, can't rule out a few showers/sprinkles over northern Pa toward dawn. Model soundings look pretty dry below 800mb, so measurable rainfall still seems unlikely.

Cloud cover and an active southwest breeze should result in minT 3-7F warmer than last night across the northern and western parts of the forecast area. Lows should range from the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. On Monday, central Pa should break into the warm sector south of weak low pressure tracking through the eastern Grt Lks. Model consensus keeps the bulk of cloud cover and any showers north of the PA/NY border. Mostly sunny skies and warm advection will help boost maxTs into the 70-80F range or about +5-10F warmer than Sunday. A tight pressure gradient between the low to the north and high pressure to the south should result in a fairly gusty southwest breeze Monday. Bukfit soundings support gusts of 20-25kts across the northern mountain and 15-20kts elsewhere.

There is a pretty consistent model signal for some convection to develop over central PA late Monday night ahead of a cold front dropping southeast from the lower Great Lakes. Steepening mid level lapse rates and MUcape values of 500-1000 j/kg per 12Z HREF mean will support scattered showers and possible elevated t-storms. MinTs in the 55-60F range early Tuesday morning should be the warmest all week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Models agree that a cold front will cross over PA during the day Tuesday which will prompt scattered showers and possible tstorms. QPFs are light at this time, but locally higher amounts will be possible under storms. Progged instability and shear both look marginal, so the severe potential appears low.

The cold front will exit our area by Wednesday and Canadian high pressure builds in. Seasonable to slight below average temperatures, NW flow, and mostly sunny skies are likely from Wednesday to Friday. Temperatures these nights will be on the chilly side, and we could very well dip into the 30s across the Northern Mountains with radiational cooling under clear skies.

Model spread and forecast uncertainty increase by late next weekend. A cut off upper low in the vicinity of northern New England is progged to open up and slowly lift out by late next weekend. However, models differ on how fast this occurs, which affects the timing of an upstream shortwave approaching from the Grt Lks. The 18Z GFS is most progressive, indicating a chance of showers as early as Saturday night. However, the bulk of model guidance remains slower. 12Z ECENS plumes support introducing a low chance of showers Sunday or Sunday night.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. For the 18Z TAF package, looking at VFR conditions into Monday.

Any low CIGS and showers would be after this period, and most likely not any period of time other than Tuesday. Overall the week looks to feature mainly dry conditions with low humidity levels and early fall like temperatures.

LLWS will be possible later tonight and early Monday, near the NY border, where low and mid level winds will be a bit stronger from the west.

Outlook .

Tue . Predominantly VFR with a few passing showers/iso t-storm possible associated with FROPA.

Wed-Fri . VFR/no sig wx.

CLIMATE. Harrisburg's latest 90-degree day on record is Oct. 7 in the 1941. With summer in the rearview mirror and given the fall pattern going forward, it's probably safe to say that there won't be any more 90 degree days this year.

So in 2021, Harrisburg likely finishes with 34 days where the maximum temperature was >= 90F. That ties 2010 and 1955 with the 14th highest on record. The top 3 are 1966 (60), 1944 (48), and 1943 (46). h/t @ajuklo for the callout on Twitter.

More interestingly, 2021 currently ranks 2nd for the number of days with minimum temperatures >= 70F in Harrisburg. The top 3 are 2020 (50), 2021 (48), and 2016 (42). 8 of the top 10 years are in the 2000s Those warm summer nights.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Fitzgerald SHORT TERM . Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM . Fitzgerald/Wagner AVIATION . Martin CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsport - Lycoming County Airport, PA26 mi72 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F49°F89%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIPT

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