Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moodus, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday January 16, 2022 5:29 AM EST (10:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:25PMMoonset 7:32AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 350 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.storm warning in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E early this afternoon, then becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds 25 to 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Rain likely with chance of snow in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Mon..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow and rain showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 350 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Arctic high pressure over the northeast moves offshore today. Meanwhile, an intensifying low over the southeast will track north and pass west of the forecast waters tonight, and then to the north Monday. The storm system lifts into southeast canada Monday night as high pressure builds into the area through Tuesday. A quick moving frontal system passes Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by high pressure late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moodus, CT
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location: 41.47, -72.44     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 161020 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 520 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. Arctic high pressure over the northeast moves offshore today. Meanwhile, an intensifying low over the southeast tracks north and passes west of the area tonight. The low then tracks to the north Monday, moving into southeastern Canada Monday night. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday. A warm front arrives on Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night. A large dome of high pressure builds from the west Thursday into Friday. Low pressure develops just offshore and may come close to the area next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. An Arctic airmass remains in place this morning, and moves offshore of the northeast during today. Meanwhile a deepening low over the Gulf Coast states will be tracking to the north. The high remains in place to keep the area dry through today. Some light snow may approach central and northeastern New Jersey very late in the day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The deepening low impacts the region tonight into Monday night. Guidance remains consistent with the track, timing, and low intensity tonight into Monday night. Precipitation quickly become likely early this evening as the center of the low moves into the mid Atlantic region as the system begins to occludes. Boundary level warm air moves into the area along the coast and any mixed precipitation at the start will quickly go over to all rain. Surface temperatures will be rising through the night with below freezing temperatures remaining across the interior until late tonight. With the warm air aloft in the occlusion a period of moderate freezing rain will be likely across the lower Hudson Valley as strong lift develops with a strengthening low level jet. The 900 to 850 mb jet is now 70 to 80 kt. Then as the warm air moves north late tonight strong frontal lift will remain and a couple hours of moderate to heavy snow will be possible, with sections of Orange County, into Putnam county quickly picking up a few inches of snow. And a Winter weather advisory remains in effect for Western Passaic County, Orange and Putnam Counties. Western Passaic may be more affect with a glaze of ice with a few hundredths of an inch possible. Across portions of interior southern Connecticut a light glaze of a trace will be possible before temperatures rise above freezing. With a very brief period of freezing rain and only a trace expected, did not expand the winter weather advisory into these areas. Along the coast moderate to heavy rain is likely with minor nuisance flooding. There is little elevated CAPE and no instability or surface CAPE so did not mention any thunder with the period of the heaviest rain. A couple of thunderstorms will be possible well south of Long Island late tonight where there is some elevated CAPE.

Winds will also be a concern with this system especially late tonight as the low level jet moves through the areas in association with the occlusion. Mixing along the coastal zones will allow for gusts to reach advisory levels, with warning level gusts likely across the twin forks of Long Island into Southern New London county. There is some uncertainty with the amount of mixing hat will occur as the atmosphere will be well saturated. The better mixing may be along the immediate coastal areas.

The low will be quick moving and lift north with the upper trough, and precipitation will be quickly diminishing Monday morning. However, wrap around moisture will remain and there will be a chance of precipitation into Monday evening until the low lifts well to the north.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. No major changes to the forecast Tuesday through the rest of the week.

The pressure gradient in the wake of the departing storm system relaxes Tuesday as high pressure settles nearby. This will result in a good amount of sunshine and slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday and Tuesday night.

As high pressure slips offshore a return flow gets established on Wednesday. A warm front extending down into the region from a clipper low moving through the Great Lakes will bring more in the way of clouds. Temperatures will turn a bit milder and should be a few degrees above normal. The clipper low then moves to the north Wednesday night, dragging its cold front across the region. There won't be a lot of moisture and lift with this system with only perhaps a few rain and snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Therefore the frontal system should come through without any meaningful precipitation. Into Thursday a large 1040 mb high will move into the the nation's mid section and will build east through Friday. This will provide a return to much colder conditions, with noticeably colder air moving in for Thursday night into Friday. At the present time, it does not appear to be quite as cold as recent cold waves. Wind chills however could get down into the single digits in most places Friday morning. It appears temperatures will run about 10 degrees or so below normal by Thursday night and Friday. Current guidance consensus has temperatures not getting out of the 20s region wide on Friday.

Then the question becomes whether a storm will develop along the coast and how close it may get into next weekend. Model spread and uncertainty is high to start next weekend. There are a cluster of ECMWF ensemble members that are further west and closer to the coast, while the Canadian deterministic and a few of its ensembles are even more aggressive. The GEFS is more in the offshore camp.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. ***HIGH IMPACT STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING***

VFR through the first half of Sunday as high pressure gradually builds over the area tonight. High pressure will slide east on Sunday as low pressure approaches from the south.

MVFR cigs move into the region around 20z Sunday as low pressure starts to approach. Flight categories lower even further by, or just after 00z Monday as precipitation enters the region. In addition to the lowered flight categories, expect an increasing easterly flow and low level wind shear as a strong low level jet moves over the region.

For the NYC metros/coast: Snow quickly changing over to rain in the evening. E winds 15-20G25kt in the evening, increasing after midnight to 20-30G40-45kt, with LLWS.

At KHPN: Snow changing to rain after midnight, E winds increasing to 20G40kt late, with LLWS.

At KSWF: Snow mixing with sleet/freezing rain after midnight and changing to rain late. E winds increasing to 15G30kt late, with LLWS possible.

Runway snow accumulations: none KISP/KJFK/KLGA, little to none KGON/KBDR, up to an inch KEWR/KTEB/KHPN, 3-4 inches KSWF.

Winds veer to the NE late overnight into Sunday morning. Winds then become E-SE and increase to around 10 kt along the coast by afternoon. E-SE winds increase after 00z 13-20kt with gusts 20-30kt. Gusts increase even further after 05z Monday with gusts around 40kt for the NYC terminals.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Uncertainty to exact wind direction Sunday afternoon/evening. Winds may be more SE than forecast. Timing of precipitation changes may be off by an hour or two.

. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY . Monday. Rain with MVFR to IFR cond, possibly mixing with or changing back to snow in the afternoon before ending. Winds at the NYC metros: SE winds 15-20G30kt, becoming SW G25kt by afternoon. Winds at KISP/KBDR/KGON: E 20-25G40-45kt early, becoming SW 15G25- 30kt by afternoon. LLWS still likely at KGON early. Winds at KHPN/KSWF: E 15G25-35kt, becoming SW 10G20kt by afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday. Mainly VFR. W-NW winds 15G25kt. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20-25kt in the evening. Wednesday. VFR. SW winds G15-20kt. Wednesday night. Chance of snow showers with MVFR or lower cond, mainly KSWF/KGON. Thursday. Mainly VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. A small craft advisory remains on the ocean waters early this morning for elevated seas.

A deepening low over the southeastern states tracks north today as passes west of the waters tonight and then to the north Monday. Strong and gusty east to southeast winds develop tonight as the low nears the region. Storm force gusts are now expected across eastern Long Island Sound, the eastern Long Island bays, and the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet from late tonight into Monday morning. And a gale warning is in effect for the remainder of the forecast tonight into Monday. Occasional gusts to around storm force will be possible for a couple of hours late tonight across the ocean waters adjacent to the eastern ocean zone, ANZ350. Once storm conditions end gale gusts will be likely the rest of Monday into Monday evening, with gales remaining on the ocean waters into late Monday night. Small craft gusts will be likely on the western Long Island Sound and south shore bays, and New York Harbor, the remainder of Monday into Monday night as gusty westerly winds behind the departing low continue to affect the forecast waters.

A NW flow will continue on Tuesday resulting in gale conditions for the ocean waters at least through the morning, and possibly into a portion of the afternoon, with small craft conditions elsewhere. Seas will remain elevated on the ocean through Tuesday, and then start to come down Tuesday night with sub SCA conditions returning from west to east. However, a return flow gets established quickly on Wednesday with any brief sub SCA conditions being short lived. Winds and seas will climb during the day on Wednesday resulting in a return to SCA conditions. Sub SCA conditions are then expected to return to the non-ocean waters at some point Wednesday night. A N-NW flow arrives for Thursday which should result in marginal SCA conditions for the eastern shoreline waters, along with the ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY. One to 1 1/2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation is expected tonight through Monday. Much of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain along the coast. Rain could be heavy at times late tonight into early Monday morning, which could result in minor nuisance flooding. Farther north, at least some of the precipitation is expected to fall as a wintry mix and/or snow with a changeover to all rain this evening into late tonight.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday.

The Wallkill River at Gardiner stage may be impacted by ice.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. . Widespread Moderate, with localized Major coastal flooding, for the Monday morning high tide .

A widespread moderate coastal flooding event is expected with the Monday morning tide in response to a long fetch E/SE gale to storm force onshore flow ahead of a complex low pressure moving up the coastal plain from the Mid Atlantic.

Have leaned this forecast towards higher guidance, and taking peak surge in a hour or so window before/after time of high tide, to account for wind shift timing uncertainties, the intense wind and wave forcing, and sometimes erratic behavior of surge in these intensely forced systems. ETSS/ESTOFS and Stevens 75 percentile guidance are showing potential for 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 ft surge during the times of high tide for the southern bays of LI and NY/NJ harbor, with 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 surge potential along LI Sound and Peconic/gardiners Bay. PETSS is also within the described surge values.

So, confidence is increasing that the timing of wind shift from E/SE storm force winds to SSW gales will be before the time of high tide. This has reduced the potential for major coastal flooding (3 ft above ground) to localized and conditional for southern Nassau County, Peconic/Gardiners bay and S CT coast. With that said, widespread moderate flooding is expected across these areas and Jamaica Bay, and widespread minor to localized moderate for the rest of LI shoreline and NY/NJ harbor. This forecast is a few tenths below the October 27 2018 Nor'easter for many warning areas. Impacts from this event can be seen in NWS NY coastal flood impact catalogs. A Coastal flood warning has been issued for much of the coast line, except advisory for NY/NJ harbor to address threat.

In addition to the stillwater level, battering surf of 9 to 13 ft is likely along the oceanfront tonight into Monday morning, with areas of dune erosion and scattered overwashes likely during the Monday morning high tide. Breaking surf of 4 to 7 ft is quite possible on western LI Sound Tonight before high tide, which may result in some minor shoreline impacts. This wave action likely begins to subside before the time of high tide as E/ESE winds subside and shift SSW, preventing widespread major shoreline flood impacts, but 3 to 4 ft surf may still be ongoing and directed towards the the CT shoreline during the time of high tide as SSW gales begin to develop. This could result in locally major flood impacts along the CT shoreline during the time of high tide. In addition, the windshift may force residual surge to south facing shorelines of the southern and eastern bays of LI. Also it may allow for surge to slosh towards eastern Great South Bay. Low predictability on this, but potential scenarios that are covered under the warning.

EQUIPMENT. The KOKX radar remains out of service. A return to service is expected this afternoon.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for CTZ012. Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for CTZ009>012. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday for CTZ009. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for CTZ008-010-011. NY . High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ079- 081. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ067-068. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ072-074-075. Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ071. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday for NYZ071>075-176>179. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ078-080. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Monday for NYZ080- 178-179. Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ073- 078-176-177. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for NJZ002. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ335-338-345. Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-340-350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JE/MET NEAR TERM . MET SHORT TERM . MET LONG TERM . JE AVIATION . JE MARINE . JE/MET HYDROLOGY . JE/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . NV EQUIPMENT . MET


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 20 mi60 min 8°F 37°F1029.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi60 min NNE 11G15 7°F 35°F1030.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 39 mi60 min 15°F 37°F1029.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi60 min NNW 2.9G5.1 6°F 39°F1029.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Last 24 hr
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT7 mi35 minNNW 710.00 miFair3°F-11°F50%1028.4 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi37 minVar 510.00 miFair5°F-8°F54%1030.5 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT21 mi37 minN 410.00 miFair5°F-7°F57%1030.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi34 minN 310.00 miFair6°F-10°F47%1029.6 hPa
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT24 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair2°F-8°F63%1029.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrN13
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2 days ago00000SE5S6S6S5SE3000N300000N4NW7N6N6N5

Tide / Current Tables for East Haddam, Connecticut
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East Haddam
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Sun -- 04:59 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:51 AM EST     3.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:46 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:24 PM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

East Haddam, Connecticut, Tide feet
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1.7
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1.3
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0.9
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0.5
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0.6
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1.2
8
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1.9
9
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2.6
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3
11
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3.1
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2.9
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2.4
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1.9
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1.2
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0.6
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-0.1
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0.9
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1.5
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2
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2.2


Tide / Current Tables for Higganum Creek, Connecticut
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Higganum Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:31 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:18 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:37 PM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Higganum Creek, Connecticut, Tide feet
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1.9
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1.6
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1.1
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1.6
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2


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