Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 2:56 PM   Moonset 2:33 AM

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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 231 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
.hazardous seas warning in effect through Monday morning - .
Tonight - N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Waves nw 11 ft at 10 seconds - .and W 2 ft at 11 seconds. Sun - N winds 20 to 30 kt. Waves N 11 ft at 10 seconds - .and sw 2 ft at 19 seconds. Sun night - N winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to around 40 kt. Waves nw 12 ft at 10 seconds - .and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Mon - N winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves N 10 ft at 10 seconds - .and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Mon night - N winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves nw 11 ft at 10 seconds - .and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Tue - N winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves N 8 ft at 9 seconds. Wed - N winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 7 seconds. Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 8 seconds.

PZZ400 231 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - Northerly gales in the outer waters will continue through the weekend and into early next week as large, short- period seas persist across all zones. Winds and seas are expected to subside slightly before increasing again tomorrow afternoon with a concentration in the southern waters. Gale or near- gale force winds and hazardous seas remain likely late this weekend through early next week.

FXUS66 KMFR 182349 AAA AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 449 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

SHORT TERM
Temperatures this afternoon will continue warming to the 60s and low 70s east of the Cascades with 70s in the west side valleys. The coast and the Cascades will be the cooler spots with 50s and low 60s. A trough will be passing through central and eastern Oregon, and isobars are condensed in this area, indicating an increase in winds. Winds near the Cascades and east will be evidence of this, especially on ridges, with 15-20 mph winds and gusts near 20-30 mph this afternoon.

An upper level low will be in southwestern Canada this weekend and this will dip into the PNW. A 5%-20% chance for rain is highlighted for Sunday morning and afternoon in the marine waters, northern Douglas County and the Cascades north of Crater Lake.
Although these chances have been added, overall looking at a few hundreths to fall at best.

While this trough lowers, a cooldown will come for the day Sunday.
For comparison, temperatures this afternoon are expected to be slightly above normal near Medford and east with slightly below normal temperatures west. By Sunday all locations will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal. The spots that will see the largest cooldown will be east of the Cascades as they'll go from highs in the low 70s to the upper 50s and low 60s.

By Tuesday an upper low will come from western Canada and this path will come closer to the western United States coast, so more impacts will be possible and this will be discussed in the long term.
-Hermansen

LONG TERM
Tuesday morning through Saturday night.

The extended forecast starts out with an upper level wave pushing into the Pacific Northwest from the north. The precipitation chances increase slightly over northern sections of our forecast area with northern California remaining dry on Tuesday. The probability precipitation currently maxes out around 50 percent over the high Cascades with lower probabilities east and west of the Cascades. A cold front will likely accompany this wave and given the time of year, the chance of thunderstorms should be in the cards.
Right now, the probability of thunder is only about 10 percent for most of our Oregon areas, although that could increase as more model data comes in. It seems like the timing is good with the cold front pushing in the evening, which is during the time of max heating.

Temperatures trend roughly 5 degrees lower on Wednesday as some of the cooler air filters in behind the cold front. The upper level low appears to sit right over us. With very little shear, less potential instability and cold air aloft, the weather pattern suggests pop up showers are most likely. The NBM keeps a low 10 to 20 percent chance of precipitation across sections of the forecast area on Wednesday with the best chances east of the Cascades and around Douglas County.

Thursday has a high probability of being a break in the action with an upper level low departing the area. The NBM still is holding on to some low probability of precipitation chances across Oregon.
Perhaps there are a few ensemble members that are keeping the upper level low around, or perhaps the next low is arriving a little earlier.

In any case, the most likely solution is another upper level approaching from the north on Friday with precipitation chances increasing. The whole forecast area has a 10 to 15 percent chance of precipitation on Friday afternoon and evening. Some ensemble members are taking a bit longer to bring the low into southern Oregon and northern California, whereas a smaller majority has it here on Friday.

Overall, an active weather pattern with minimal weather impacts is anticipated in the extended forecast. We'll have to watch out for some stronger thunderstorms, although it's hard to see a lot of instability building under this cooler north to northwest flow.

-Smith

AVIATION
19/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue through this evening for the vast majority of the forecast area. The main impact to aviation inland from the coast will be gusty north-northwest winds this afternoon and early evening.

Along the coast, mainly north of Cape Blanco: A slight offshore component to the wind will likely keep the marine layer at bay through sunset with gusty north winds being the main impact. After sunset, stratus with MVFR ceilings will likely surge onshore.

Tonight stratus will surge from the coast into the Umpqua Basin, but it is unlikely to reach areas farther south. The stratus will dissipate in the morning leading to VFR once again. Gusty north- northwest winds will return to most areas Sunday afternoon.

-Schaaf/Wright

MARINE
Updated 225 PM Saturday, May 18, 2024...A strong thermal trough along the coast will produce north gales and very steep wind driven seas south of Cape Blanco through Monday evening.
Conditions will be less severe but still hazardous to small craft north of Cape Blanco.

Model guidance came in with stronger winds today, and those winds are starting to materialize in observations this afternoon. As a result, the hazardous seas warning was replaced with a gale warning for much of the southern waters. These conditions will be most severe during the afternoon and evening hours each day through Monday with both winds and seas easing late at night into the early morning.

Low pressure approaching from the north will disrupt the thermal trough by Tuesday with winds diminishing and seas becoming dominated by longer period swells. -Wright

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

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Crescent City
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Sat -- 03:26 AM PDT     1.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:12 AM PDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:01 PM PDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:29 PM PDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Crescent City
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Sat -- 03:24 AM PDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:10 AM PDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:59 PM PDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM PDT     6.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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