Friday, January28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brinckerhoff, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:08PM Friday January 28, 2022 6:42 AM EST (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:54AMMoonset 2:04PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 609 Am Est Fri Jan 28 2022
.small craft advisory in effect late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of snow early this morning, then chance of snow late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of snow in the evening, then snow after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm after midnight.
Sat..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of snow in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 609 Am Est Fri Jan 28 2022
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure along the northeast coast continues to track east overnight. Low pressure then develops off the carolina coast late Friday and rapidly deepens through Saturday night as it tracks east of new england. High pressure then builds from the west Sunday into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brinckerhoff, NY
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location: 41.55, -73.89     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 281119 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 619 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

SYNOPSIS. A weakening cold front approaches from the northwest today. Low pressure then develops off the Carolina coast Friday night and then rapidly deepens through Saturday night as it tracks east of New England. High pressure then builds from the west Sunday into early next week. High pressure returns Sunday and continues into early next week. A low pressure and associated fronts approach the region toward the end of the period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast is mainly on track this morning with minor updates to reflect current observations. KOKX radar is showing some light returns over northeast NJ. But with sfc dewpoint depressions in the 15-20 degree range, it does not appear to be reaching the ground. Have adjusted PoPs and wx grids to reflect this.

A leading northern stream upper trough and shortwave will move into eastern Canada early this morning. The shortwave will be accompanied by a cold front, however, with the trough well to the north during Friday, the cold front will weakening as it moves over the region.

Forecast guidance is showing some light snow possible during the day today with this feature. However, there isn't much moisture to work with and lift remains fairly weak. As a result, will continue to carry low chance POPs.

Highs today will be in the lower to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. ***High Impact Coastal System Expected This Weekend***

Attention then turns to the system that will impact the area late tonight into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is higher tonight that a strong area of low pressure will impact the area over the next few days, bringing heavy snow, strong and gusty winds and coastal flooding. Model spread has decreased somewhat since this time last night, however, and there has been a westward shift in the track of the sfc/700mb low for some of the model systems that have remained well east of the 40/70 benchmark.

Model guidance is in good agreement, generally, that upper ridging builds over the western CONUS as PAC NW energy is shunted down over the central Plains within a broader longwave trough over the east. The trough deepens tonight over the OH Valley, becomes negatively titled by Saturday morning, over the Mid Atlantic, and closes off just east of Long Island by late Saturday. In fact, a dual jet structure is noted at 250/300mb as the low closes off, characteristic of heavy northeast snowfall events. With all this in mind, the ingredients are set for a significant northeast snowfall event.

Surface low pressure still progged to develop off the southeast coast and deepen this evening as it moves northeast into Saturday. The deterministic models and their respective ensembles have jogged back west overnight, including the GFS and GEFS, which in previous cycles had been clustered on the eastern end of the track envelope. There is better consensus now of a track south and east of Long Island just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark.

With the continued shift back to the west, and resultant QPF has increased slightly overall especially across southern CT and Long Island, with a widespread 1-1.5 inches here, and less than an inch from NYC north and west. A model consensus was used for QPF, minus the 00Z NAM. As a result, have increased snow amounts across the board, with 12-16" across Long Island and southeast CT, 8-10" for NYC and southwestern CT, and 3-6" elsewhere. It should be noted that an area of mesoscale snow banding is highly likely with this system, especially across eastern sections of the CWA. Within this zone, higher snowfall is possible along with enhanced snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour for a few hours. Recent CAMs are highlighting eastern LI and extreme SE CT as having the highest probability of occurrence of these bands pivoting near the upper low. Of course, should later guidance continue to shift west, this threat would also shift west.

Have converted all winter weather watches to warnings, and issued a winter weather advisory for Orange County, NY with all this in mind. In addition, have elected to hold off on any blizzard headlines at this time for eastern LI and southern CT, the areas that are most likely to meet blizzard criteria. Given the increased forecast confidence in only these latest runs, would prefer one more cycle for that upgrade. Regardless, near blizzard conditions are possible for eastern LI and southern CT for a period on Saturday afternoon with this system.

Winds will also be an issue as the system nears the area as strong northeast flow dominates as the system deepens in our vicinity. Gusts to 35-45 mph are likely for a period Saturday afternoon, especially for the coastal areas, where occasionally higher gusts are possible. So near blizzard conditions are possible, especially near the coast, where winds/gusts will be most frequent.

Snow will begin to taper by Saturday afternoon from west to east, with cold air advecting in behind the system. Temps on Sat from the upper teens to mid 20s early Sat morning should steadily fall during the late morning and afternoon, and lows Sat night should be in the single digits and teens, with a gusty NW flow producing wind chills as low as 5 below in the NYC metro area/coast, and around 10 below inland.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. No significant changes made in the long term overnight.

Conditions dry on Sunday as our storm system continues into the Canadian Maritimes. Winds will remain on the breezy side, particularly early in the day, with a tight pressure gradient as the storm departs. The unseasonably cold air also remains, with a fresh snowpack helping to limit surface heating during the afternoon.

An upper trough axis swings through on Monday with limited moisture, so another dry day is anticipated with high temperatures near the freezing mark. Heights begin to rise on Tuesday as ridging builds across the Eastern US and temperatures climb above normal into midweek.

PoPs increase on Wednesday with a storm system and its associated fronts approaching the region. Moisture convergence along the cold front should allow for a period of precipitation as it moves through toward mid-to-late next week. While specifics like timing and amounts will still need to be resolved, the building ridge and onshore flow ahead of the system should allow for a wet, rather than white, event for the entire region. Capped PoPs at chance for now, given the temporal and spatial disagreement. Otherwise, stuck close to the NBM for this update.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weakening cold front approaches overnight. A coastal storm approaches later today into Friday night.

VFR for the overnight, with MVFR ceilings possible by late morning towards 15z or so. Prevailing MVFR conditions are more likely closer to 17-18z for the city terminals. Some light snow / snow showers are possible and was handled with PROB30 for now as confidence of occurrence remains low at this time. A brief improvement to VFR is likely towards 22-00z, but MVFR may linger as confidence remains low as much of Friday afternoon and evening will be on the line between MVFR and VFR. For the city terminals snow from the coastal storm develops towards 4-6z. The timing of the onset of snow developing Friday night is low confidence.

Winds will be light overnight, then W by Friday morning. Winds then turn N by 21z Friday. The winds start to increase late Friday night.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments are possible approaching towards 12z Fri with the low chance of light snow / snow showers developing which could result in a change in flight category.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday night. Snow develops late with mostly MVFR conditions, with IFR conditions likely towards morning. Saturday. Snow develops late Friday night with IFR or lower conditions. N winds increasing to around 20G with gusts 30 to 40 kt. Still some uncertainty, but there is the potential for runway snow accumulations of 6-9 inches mainly from the city terminals and greater than 9 inches for eastern terminals. Stronger winds are possible too, with LLWS. Sunday. Becoming VFR. NW gusts to 25kt possible AM. Monday. VFR with light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters through today.

Low pressure develops off the Carolina coast and rapidly deepens while tracking to the north Friday night. As the low approaches, winds and seas will be increasing on the ocean waters, reaching SCA levels early Friday evening. By late Friday night gale gusts will become likely on the ocean waters, and a gale warning is in effect. Across the non ocean waters SCA conditions will be likely, with the potential for gale gusts across the eastern Sound and eastern bays toward Saturday morning. A SCA is n effect late Friday night for the non ocean waters.

Given the westward shift in the model trends this cycle, have upgraded the storm watch for the ocean waters and eastern LI marine zone with NE-N winds gusting 50-55 kt. Gales should continue Sat night on all waters as winds back NW and slowly diminish.

Marginal SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Sunday, slowly improving through the day. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the first part of the new week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday.

A strong low pressure system passing offshore could bring significant precipitation to the area Friday night into Saturday night.

No additional hydrologic impacts are expected into next week.

River ice continues to increase due to the persistent cold. The Wallkill River at Gardiner may be impacted by ice.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The 50-75th percentile of the Stevens is preferred for this surge forecast for most of the forecast area due to its forcing by a 100 member multi-model ensemble.

N/NNE winds are not ideal for major surge events, but combined with wave action, potential for minor to locally moderate coastal impacts exists for the vulnerable north shore communities of the twin forks of LI and north shore of LI for the Sat AM high tide cycle, with less of a threat for the Sat PM and Sun AM high tides. After collaboration with WFO BOX, have decided to hold off an any headlines and assess the next guidance cycle with the threat over the Twin Forks region still 3 cycles away. With that said, there is a good chance of at least widespread minor coastal flooding here Sat AM, and trends will be monitored for a potential need for any warnings here. Based on climatology with this setup, isolated moderate flooding here would be more likely versus widespread.

Trend has been upward for the threat of minor coastal flooding for the south shore back bays of Nassau and Queens for the Saturday morning high tide cycle. Somewhat less of a chance and probably just localized minor flooding is expected for coastal Westchester and coastal Fairfield Counties. Would like to wait another guidance cycle to see trends before settling on any other potential headlines. Otherwise for the Sat AM cycle, statements for isolated minor flooding could be needed - then less likely for the for Saturday PM cycle.

For the Sunday AM high tide cycle, focus shifts more toward the south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau County. Guidance suggests a little better of a chance for widespread minor coastal flooding here vs Saturday despite NW flow, due to Ekman pumping. Elsewhere on Sunday, not expecting any flooding, but maybe some locations along the north shore of LI could approach minor benchmarks due to piling.

In terms of shoreline impacts, ocean surf should build to 4 to 8 ft Sat PM into Sun AM, with scattered dune erosion impacts for Sun AM high tide. With orthogonal swell energy and water levels limited, the beachfront washover threat appears to be low and localized. 3 to 5 ft surf likely for north shore of LI and north shore of south fork shorefront with Sat AM and PM tides, which will likely cause beach erosion and possibly minor damage to shoreline structures.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ067. NJ . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331- 335-338-340-345. Storm Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ332-350- 353-355. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . BC/DBR NEAR TERM . BC/DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . BC AVIATION . BC MARINE . BC/DBR HYDROLOGY . BC/DBR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 20 mi72 min SSW 6 26°F 1021 hPa13°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 32 mi72 min ENE 1 26°F 1020 hPa12°F
TKPN6 32 mi54 min S 6G7 26°F 35°F1020.8 hPa13°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi72 min WSW 9.7G14 33°F 17°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi54 min W 2.9G6 31°F 37°F1020.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi57 min WSW 7.8G7.8 32°F 19°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi49 minN 09.00 miOvercast26°F17°F69%1020.3 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY11 mi57 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F18°F74%1020 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY20 mi48 minN 310.00 miOvercast23°F15°F72%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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2 days ago0000SW5W7W9NW10W11NW11W7NW5NW5N4NW7N5N4NW3NW5NW6NW4000

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:40 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:20 AM EST     3.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:34 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:02 AM EST     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:59 AM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:49 PM EST     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:35 PM EST     0.59 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:15 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current, knots
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