Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 3:52 AM   Moonset 4:46 PM

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LEZ146 Expires:202405050815;;639319 Fzus51 Kcle 050204 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 1004 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-050815- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 1004 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Patchy fog late. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - North winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 050530 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 130 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through at least the middle of next week. A warm front will lift northward across the region this afternoon. Low pressure will move west to east through the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday pulling a weak cold front across the area. This frontal boundary will stall across southern Ohio Monday as weak high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
10 PM Update Continued to downtrend pops and thunder mention this evening into the overnight. Convection remains rather scattered at this point, so opted for chance pops/scattered wording for most areas. Also lowered thunder to scattered/isolated. Will keep with patchy fog wording given the nature of current surface obs and satellite, although areas out west that saw appreciable rainfall may see more widespread fog through the overnight.

Original discussion... The next 24 hours now through Sunday evening will remain unsettled scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms possible. OVerall the weather will be warm and a little wet at times with passing showers but not a total washout this weekend.

A small mid level disturbance is tracking across eastern Ohio this afternoon. It shows up fairly well on the KCLE radar with slight swirl in the reflectivity. A warm front is lifting through the area this afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the late evening before decreasing in coverage after midnight. Any areas that sees rainfall today may see some patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning.

A weak cold front will move from west to east across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon. Rain chances will increase between 40 to 60 percent midday Sunday into the afternoon with the frontal passage. Thermodynamics looks limited but may be just enough for the potential of a couple strong to severe storms possible Sunday afternoon. SPC has NEOH and NWPA in a marginal threat on the Day 2 outlook. An isolated damaging wind gust would be the main hazard with any organized and stronger storm. Rain chances will gradually decrease by Sunday evening after the frontal passage and weak high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes. High temps on Sunday will be in the middle to upper 70s areawide.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
By Monday, the short wave from the Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes will rotate east and become negatively tilted. This move will provide a northwest descent flow over the Great Lakes on Monday. As a result, drying will occur across Lake Erie, lakeshore counties and at least county inland. At the same time, a slight disturbance underneath the ridge axis and moisture will provide a threat of rain and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley and central Ohio Monday afternoon. High temperatures will be near normal around 70F Monday afternoon. Short wave over the Ohio Valley will continue to lift northeast and maintain a threat of showers Monday night.

A vigorous wave lifting east from the Four Corners on Monday will evolve into the closed low over the Dakotas Tuesday morning. The upper level low will remain stationary over the Northern Plains and yield increased thickness layers across the area. The associated surface low will drag a warm front across the area Tuesday. As a result, temps will increase for highs approaching 80 on Tuesday and lows remaining in the 60s Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front will push through Wednesday morning. Limited to nil cold air advection will take hold on Wednesday. The main surface low will finally track east across Ohio on Thursday. As the low passes through the forecast area Thursday, another cold front pushes through late Thursday. With moisture remaining play and warm sector the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday, the better chance of strong to severe convection is possible just west of the late Tuesday, southwest of the forecast area on Wednesday, and south half of the forecast on Thursday. There is still great deal of uncertainty with the instability and shear in the middle of next week. Elevated rain chances will exist Tuesday through Thursday. As a result, periods of rainfall could cause some impacts across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania during the middle of next week. Cooler air will finally return on Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Have a mixed bag of ceilings and visibilities at this hour for the terminals in our area. Some clearing in NW OH has allowed for fog development at TOL while further east, MVFR/IFR ceilings prevail, and a few scattered showers exist. Expect these trends to continue through the remainder of the overnight and into the day Sunday. Chances for showers/storms increase after 18Z east of I-71 primarily as a cold front tracks west to east through the region, and highlight the CAK/YNG terminals for this threat.
Low ceilings to linger in the wake of this cold front. Wind gusts possible in these storms.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE
Southeasterly winds are expected with the eastern legs or Pennsylvania waters approaching 15 to 20 knots late tonight.
Surface low will push east across Lake Erie Sunday will allow winds to subside on Sunday and become northerly Sunday night.
Aside from relatively brisk offshore winds across the eastern basin tonight, winds will remain below 15kts and wave heights in the nearshore and open waters to remain below 2ft except for Monday. Waves could briefly be over 2ft in northerly winds behind a cold front at that time in the central and western basin, and again towards the end of next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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