Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 1:08 AM   Moonset 9:42 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1114 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late this evening. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms after midnight.Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 340 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front/surface trough moves through the area this morning, with a back door cold front moving through this evening. A frontal wave then moves through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with high pressure returning thereafter for the end of the week. Another frontal system is expected for the weekend.

FXUS61 KALY 290518 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 118 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor front will drop southward tonight into Monday morning bringing some showers. The front will stall south of the region tomorrow before returning northward Monday night into Tuesday with additional showers and thunderstorms. The front will shift south and east of the region Wednesday into Thursday bringing fair weather and warmer temperatures back to the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A few sprinkles around that will tend to end through daybreak.
Weak cold front dropping south will help temperatures to fall around current forecasted levels, even with persistent cloud cover. Lows by daybreak in the 50s to near 60.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Cold front will continue settling southward across the region Monday, before stalling to our south and southwest by later in the day. Some showers may be ongoing through mid morning across the southern Adirondacks and Lake George/Saratoga region, otherwise expect a break in any precipitation through at least early afternoon, with some clearing developing. Later in the afternoon, isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may develop across the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, which will remain proximate to the frontal boundary.
Temperatures will vary considerable from north to south across the region, with mainly 60s for areas north of I-90, and 70s to the south, with temps possibly reaching near 80 across portions of the mid Hudson Valley early Monday afternoon before dropping off behind the front. If clouds linger across the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley, there is some possibility that temps remain in the 50s, however this seems like a very low probability at this time.

The front slowly retreats back northward Monday night into Tuesday, while a mid level trough shifts eastward during Tuesday along with another cold front. This combination of features will bring additional showers and embedded thunderstorms later Monday night, especially for areas north of I-90 where mid level forcing will be greatest, and again Tuesday afternoon and night.
Will have to watch for any isolated stronger thunderstorm development for Tuesday afternoon/evening should any brief clearing develop prior to frontal passage, with this possibility mainly confined to the Mohawk Valley, SE Catskills and mid Hudson Valley region. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible given PWAT's exceeding 1.25 inches. Lows Monday night mainly in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s, with highs Tuesday in the 60s and lower 70s, although could be locally warmer if pockets of clearing briefly develop.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Initial system should shift east of the region during Wednesday, with some lingering showers in the morning followed by slow clearing in the afternoon. Then, a high degree of uncertainty for Thursday-Friday, as long term guidance suggests that despite mid/upper level ridging along/off the southeast coast, an upper level shortwave tracking along the northern periphery of this ridge may allow for some showers/thunderstorms Thursday-early Friday, along with potential cooling for Friday. At this time, it appears warmest temperatures may occur Thursday with 70s for many valley areas, then possibly cooling back into the 60s to lower 70s Friday with fair weather.

Another approaching shortwave and cold front may bring some showers/thunderstorms for Saturday-Sunday, although exact timing remains uncertain. Temperatures look seasonably warm next weekend with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 06z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 1:00 AM EDT, although PSF is seeing MVFR cigs at this time. Earlier showers have mainly dissipated with dry weather expected through most of the TAF period. However, expecting periods of MVFR and possibly fuel- alternate cigs this morning especially at ALB/GFL/PSF behind a cold front that is currently dropping south through the region. At POU, the cold front is not expected to arrive until after sunrise, and some patchy fog is possible there before the winds pick up. Greatest chance for any fog is from around 9-12z. Fog formation will depend on how much clearing we see, but if fog does form then IFR conditions would be possible. There is also a narrow window for the next couple hours where some IFR cigs can't be ruled out at PSF ahead of the cold front, but confidence is not high enough to put in the TAFs.

Behind the cold frontal passage, MVFR cigs linger through early to mid-morning before low clouds lift and we see some partial clearing by mid to late morning at all TAF sites. From 15z through at least sunset, mainly VFR conditions expected with partly cloudy skies. A couple showers can't be ruled out near POU during the afternoon with the cold front stalling nearby, but will not mention in the TAFs as showers should be isolated in nature. Mainly VFR conditions continue through the end of the TAF period, although some MVFR cigs are possible at POU and possibly PSF after midnight Monday night as the front begins to lift back northwards as a warm front.

Winds will switch to the northeast at 5-10 kt at all TAF sites between now and 12z as a cold front drops southwards through the region. Cold front has already made it through GFL, and should make it to ALB/PSF by around 8-9z and POU by 12z. Behind the cold front, winds remain northeasterly at 5-10 kt through the day today before becoming light and variable after sunset at POU/PSF. At ALB/GFL, winds diminish to around 5 kt or less from the northeast at ALB/GFL after sunset continuing through 06z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

HYDROLOGY
A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening through Tuesday night, with a few brief downpours possible.

More widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and night, and with abundant moisture available, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially where multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms occur. This may lead to some ponding of water in urban/poor drainage areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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New Hamburg
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Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:10 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:06 PM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:05 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
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New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Newburgh
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Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:52 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
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Newburgh, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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