Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 12:04 AM   Moonset 8:32 AM

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LMZ046 Expires:202404290230;;537075 Fzus53 Kiwx 281852 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 252 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-290230- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 252 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 52 degrees and at michigan city is 49 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 281908 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 308 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible this evening into early Monday and again Monday afternoon with gusty winds and heavy rain being the main threats.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms expected during mid to late week period next week.

- Warm with highs in the 70s through Friday with 80s also possible on Thursday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The upper low pressure system across the Upper Mississippi Valley moves northeast into Canada this evening through Monday night.
During which time, it'll push its moisture stream into the forecast area tonight. After an afternoon of mostly dry weather, chances for rain are expected to increase west of IN-31 as it moves east.
However, the surface convergence breaks down, instability only achieves 500 J/kg of energy, and precipitation amounts in models lower despite continued push of 1 to 1.5 inch PWATs (1 to 3 SDs above normal) along with 30 kts of effective shear into the area. As such, will look to keep likely PoPs at best. Then, as the moisture stream slides east on Monday, the area with the best chance to see any stronger storms appears to be east of IN-15 and perhaps even as far east as east of I-69. The 7 C/km mid level lapse rates depart the area before the afternoon, but there is some maintenance of the 30 kts of effective shear and 500 J/kg MUCAPE so perhaps a damaging wind gust could be had in the moist environment. Shear appears to have some tendency of both boundary-parallel and -perpendicular flow owing to individual cells and perhaps some linear segments as well. With the mbE vectors going into the inner circle perhaps there could be some back building or slow moving cells to allow for a heavy rain allotment with its convective component. Upper divergence appears to return to southeast after 00z Monday night, which could also support the heavy rain component. The moisture stream slides out of the area for Tuesday allowing for a drier day with sunshine to be observed, especially during the afternoon for eastern areas. Highs still reside in the 70s Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a deepening progressive, but slightly negatively tilted area of vorticity swings into the Northern Great Lakes, forcing dissipates as precipitation approaches from the west, so will continue with the dry forecast for Wednesday.
Additional ridging continues to build in the southeast CONUS Wednesday through Thursday night continuing the dry streak for the area. It won't be until Friday that we have another chance to see more rain as a cold front comes through. Timing is in question especially as it pertains to if we can receive a convective component. Next weekend looks cooler with highs in the 60s. Saturday leans drier than Sunday, but Sunday's chance for rain is on the low side as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Dry conditions should hold across northern Indiana through much of the night with some renewed chances of rain across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan by early Monday morning.

The primary aviation weather concern this afternoon is the continued strong winds. Diurnal mixing will continue to promote some southwest gusts to around 30 knots through the remainder of the afternoon, with these gusts tapering sharply toward 23Z.
A modest gradient will persist overnight that will keep south winds up around 10 knots through the night. Large scale support for showers and thunderstorms through this evening will remain displaced well to the west across the Lower/Mid MS Rvr valley.
As the large scale trough shifts east overnight and an upper jet streak lifts through downstream portion of this trough, would expect better forcing to shift far enough east to bring rain shower chances into NW Indiana late tonight. Confidence as far east as KSBN is somewhat lower and will hold with VCSH mention through Monday morning until better timing can be attained with what should be a weakening line of showers and embedded storms.
Some brief MVFR cigs are possible NW Indiana after daybreak Monday, but primarily VFR conditions should hold. A narrow window of very marginal LLWS criteria is possible later tonight ahead of the cold front, but this looks quite marginal in nature and confidence remains low in meeting this criteria.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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