Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:44PM Thursday October 28, 2021 5:00 PM EDT (21:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:40PMMoonset 2:17PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 428 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming sw around 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon and Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue and Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas around 2 ft, then 1 foot or less. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 428 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Surface high pressure over quebec noses south of southern new england's waters, but retreats north as a surface low builds over the southeastern unites states on Friday. Seas only diminish slightly over the next 36 hours and start to rebuild ahead of an advancing surface low on Saturday. The low moves offshore on Sunday and high pressure builds in for Monday into Tuesday. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 281955 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 355 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry and cool weather prevails into Friday. A period of locally heavy rain, perhaps a rumble of thunder and gusty coastal winds is likely late Friday night into Saturday. Isolated showers are possible Sunday before drier weather returns Sunday night into the start of the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Surface ridging extending south from high pres in Canada will bring dry conditions with light winds. The extent of cloud cover tonight is tricky and will impact low temp forecast. Clouds have persisted across central/E MA and RI this afternoon. Expect temporary partial clearing working in from N this evening across northern MA while clouds persist in SE MA. However, guidance is suggesting clouds fill back in and spread west across NE and central MA overnight, with mainly clear skies across the CT valley. As a result, coldest temps tonight will be in the west with mildest temps across coastal MA and Cape/Islands.

We leaned toward blend of available guidance for min temps which will range from lower 30s across western MA to low 40s coastal MA, but mid/upper 40s Cape/Islands. Temps could be colder than forecast in the east if there is less cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Friday .

Upper level ridging builds across New Eng as surface high moves to the Maritimes. Continued NE flow will result in abundant low level moisture across eastern half SNE. Soundings show this moisture trapped below an inversion so clouds will dominate across eastern MA/RI with more sunshine back to the west. Highs expected to range from upper 40s higher terrain to low/mid 50s elsewhere.

Friday night .

Closed low lifts NE from TN valley with southerly flow aloft advecting higher PWATs into SNE. A modest SE low level jet will develop ahead of the upper low which will enhance isentropic lift after midnight bringing widespread rain into SNE. Winds will increase along the coast late Fri night, but the low level jet is much weaker than the Tue night storm and a stronger low level inversion will prevent higher winds from mixing down to the ground. Easterly wind gusts to 25-35 mph are expected along the south coast late Fri night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Washout anticipated Saturday with gusty winds possible along the eastern MA coast.

* A few lingering showers on Sunday, but otherwise quiet weather heading into the upcoming week with temps trending downward.

* Next shot for rain showers comes Tuesday into Wednesday.

Saturday .

Main focus of the extended is on this period. Broad cutoff low situated over the Mid Atlantic/Eastern Great Lakes early on Saturday. This will lift into the Eastern Great Lakes/St. Lawrence River Valley area by late Saturday. At the surface a well wrapped up low will be situated over the OH Valley/Eastern Great Lakes and will lift into Upstate NY. A weak coastal low may develop nearby/over southern New England on Saturday before lifting into northern New England Saturday night.

Most concerned with the gusty wind potential with this upcoming system especially given some communities will be still undergoing restoration efforts. Fortunately, the low level jet is oriented in an unfavorable SE direction and transitory. This tends to limit the amount of stronger winds mixing down to the surface due to a steepening inversion aloft. Nonetheless, do have a roughly 30-60 kt 925 hPa low level jet in place. Thinking that this could bring a period of 30-40 mph gusts as NAM/GFS Bufkit soundings show winds aloft getting down to roughly 1-2 kft AGL for coastal areas. With this in mind bumped up wind speeds and gusts to the NBM 90th percentile.

The other possible concern with this system is rainfall, which could be heavy at times especially if a secondary coastal low happens to develop. Will have a PWAT plume of roughly 1-1.75 inches advecting into eastern portions of southern New England. This is AOA the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology for CHH for this time of year. Expect the heaviest rain around the leading edge of the low level jet as it lifts through and again could see heavier precip if a secondary low develops. Leaned toward a weak secondary low developing, so bumped up QPF toward the latest NERFC and WPC guidance. Overall generally anticipating storm total QPF of 1 to 2 inches. Could have some isolated higher amounts if there are any thunderstorms. The risk of thunder is greatest along the eastern coastal plain where there is a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE available. Any convection would be elevated, so there is no risk of severe storms and especially given how strong an inversion is in place. Timeline wise the heaviest rainfall would be throughout the day Saturday before things taper off at night and become more showery.

Expecting it to be a bit milder as southeasterly flow advects in warmer air. Should see 925 hPa temperatures increasing to 8-15 degrees Celsius. High temperatures will be in the 50s across much of the interior and the 60s along the coastal plain. Given we will still be in warm southerly flow am anticipating it to stay mild overnight. Low temperatures range from the upper 40s across the higher terrain to the 50s elsewhere heading into Sunday.

Sunday .

Cutoff low lifts through New England and into Quebec province by Sunday night. A ridge builds into the region behind the departing system. Broad sfc low rotates into northern New England and Quebec province on Sunday, while high pressure begins nudging in.

Think that there will be isolated to scattered rain shower activity as the broad low lifts through. Best shot for showers will be across the interior where they are closest to the best forcing. Not expecting a washout, but there will be showers around for much of the day. Do not think it will be completely dry until the evening as high pressure nudges in.

Should have filtered sunshine across the region and given flow will still be SW/W will have another mild day especially in comparison to the past few days. Expect 925 hPa temperatures in the 8-10 degree Celsius range. NBM temps looked reasonable, so have stuck with the readings generally in the 60s.

Will be cooling down quickly Sunday night into Monday as high pressure builds in. This relaxes the pressure gradient a bit, which may allow for decent radiational cooling given the clearing skies. Kept with the NBM for now, but may need to bring temps a bit in future updates especially if winds are lighter. Lows in the 40s for most, but in the low 50s along the immediate coastline.

Monday through Wednesday .

Weak mid level ridge moving through on Monday, but will remain in broad cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country. Will have a weak shortwave lifting through from the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure keeps the weather dry for Monday and part of Tuesday. A cold front/broad low slides through later on Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances of rain showers.

Temperatures cool throughout this period with W/NW cold air advection. High temps in the 50s and 60s on Monday, but cool into the 40s and 50s on Tuesday/Wednesday. Will see more widespread 30s and 40s across the region for low temperatures during this window.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00z . MVFR cigs will persist in eastern New Eng with VFR in the CT valley. N gusts to 25 kt over outer Cape/Islands.

Tonight . Moderate confidence. Lingering MVFR cigs over Cape/Islands. Otherwise VFR in the evening, then MVFR cigs redeveloping in eastern MA overnight. Light N wind.

Friday . Moderate High confidence. MVFR cigs central and eastern New Eng. VFR CT valley trending to MVFR in the afternoon. NE wind 10-15 kt.

Friday night . Moderate confidence. MVFR trending to IFR overnight as rain overspreads the region from west to east. E/NE wind 10-15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt developing after midnight along the immediate south coast.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. RA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Winds continue to diminish and wind speeds over eastern waters will drop below 20 kt overnight. Small craft advisories will remain in place over open waters for hazardous seas. NE gusts to 20 kt expected Fri, then increasing E gusts to 30-35 kt will develop over south coastal waters after midnight Fri night as a low level jet develops. A gale watch will be issued for late Fri night into Sat as this low level jet sweeps across the waters.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Coastal flood advisory is in effect for Nantucket for the late afternoon high tide. A surge around 2 ft will result in areas of minor coastal flooding in Nantucket Harbor.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ024. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ANZ231-232-250-251-254. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231-232-250- 251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BL NEAR TERM . KJC SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . BL AVIATION . KJC/BL MARINE . KJC/BL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi61 min 52°F 60°F1013.3 hPa (+0.0)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi76 min NW 4.1 55°F 1013 hPa50°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 22 mi61 min N 15G19 1014.7 hPa (+0.5)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi61 min 50°F 61°F1015.2 hPa (+0.3)
FRXM3 25 mi61 min 50°F 50°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi61 min N 8G9.9 51°F 1014.8 hPa (+0.4)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 25 mi41 min NNE 19G25 54°F 58°F1012.7 hPa
44090 26 mi35 min 59°F4 ft
PRUR1 31 mi61 min 51°F 44°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi76 min NE 9.9 51°F 1015 hPa44°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi61 min NNE 8G12 51°F 59°F1014.4 hPa (-0.0)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi61 min NE 7G11 51°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.4)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi61 min E 9.9G13 50°F 60°F1014.3 hPa (+0.4)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi61 min N 12G16 51°F 60°F1014.5 hPa (-0.0)
PVDR1 37 mi61 min NNE 5.1G9.9 51°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.3)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi61 min NE 7G9.9 51°F 60°F1015.1 hPa (+0.3)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi61 min NNE 15G25 53°F 57°F1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
CHTM3 41 mi61 min NNE 20G25 52°F 56°F1013 hPa (+0.3)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi35 min 63°F8 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N17
G23
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N12
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G12
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G15
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G18
N12
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NE18
G23
NE17
NE18
G25
NE22
G28
N22
G28
N24
G38
N22
G35
N24
G34
N27
G36
N28
G40
N26
G38
N31
G51
N32
G42
N33
G47
N34
G49
N36
G48
NE29
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N27
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N23
G32
N25
G33
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G34
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NE8
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G12
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G14
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N6
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NE7
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G18
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G15
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G19
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G24
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G23
E14
G20
E10
G16
NE11
NE15
G20
NE13
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi76 minNNE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast48°F43°F82%1013.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi68 minNNE 1210.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1013.9 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi68 minN 1210.00 miOvercast52°F44°F75%1013.1 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi69 minNNE 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast51°F41°F69%1013.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi2.1 hrsNNE 1310.00 miOvercast52°F43°F72%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN18
G31
NE20
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NE16
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G30
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NE18
G30
NE18
G30
NE18
G30
NE18
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G30
NE14
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G19
N7NE12--NE14
G20
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G20
1 day agoNE22
G34
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G34
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G34
NE22
G34
NE22
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N28
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G58
NE30
G55
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NE25
G35
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G35
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G38
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N17
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2 days agoSW50NE8NE5NE5NE5NE5N6E3SE13SE13SE13E9
G16
E15
G22
E15
G24
E15
G24
E18
G28
E18
G28
E18
G28
E16
G26
E15
G25
NE22
G30
NE22
G30
NE22
G34

Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:19 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.3
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2.7
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2.8
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2.6
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0.9
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1.9
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3.4
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1.1
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1.3
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1.6


Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:11 AM EDT     2.86 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:52 AM EDT     -0.11 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     -2.96 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM EDT     0.14 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     2.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 04:56 PM EDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     -3.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.15 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.4
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2.7
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2.9
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2.1
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-0.8
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-2.4
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-3
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-2.7
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-1.9
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-0.2
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1.4
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1.8
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2.4
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-0.5
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-2.3
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-3.1
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-3.1
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-2.4
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-1.2
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1.3


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