Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 12:40 AM   Moonset 9:13 AM

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LEZ147 Expires:202404291415;;570312 Fzus51 Kcle 290755 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 355 am edt Mon apr 29 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-291415- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 355 am edt Mon apr 29 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 291951 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 351 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move east across the area tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will return to the area late Tuesday through Wednesday before another low pressure system moving through the Midwest moves a warm front north across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A cold front associated with this low will move east Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Currently a low pressure system over the Upper Midwest has extended a warm front north of the area with a cold front extending south near the IN/IL border. This has left the entire CWA in the warm sector of this low today, allowing for continued WAA and moisture advection. Looking at observations, temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. These conditions have allowed for a field of diurnal CU to become established over much of the area. These skies will gradually transition to overcast skies as the aforementioned cold front continues to move east towards the area this evening and overnight. In addition, showers and thunderstorms are currently being observed upstream and are expected to gradually push east beginning this evening.
Overall the mesoscale environment remains marginal, but with a nose of instability and wind shear 30-35 knots over NW OH, would not be surprised to see some stronger thunderstorms with the primary concern being heavy rainfall and gusty winds between 21-00Z this evening. Due to the marginal environment, SPC has maintained a general thunder outlook across the area.

As the cold front moves east tonight, showers will become more widespread with the chance of thunder diminishing, especially east of I71. Overall impacts should be minimal with this system, although scattered heavier rainfall may result in nuisance flooding such as ponding on roadways. QPF totals for the event are highest in west counties generally ranging from 0.5-0.7" and are much lower in the eastern counties once the system weakens with total rainfall only expected to be 0.2" or less.

As the cold front departs east on Tuesday, high pressure will build in behind it and allow for dry conditions to return for the remainder of the near term period. High temperatures on Tuesday will be a bit milder, climbing into the low to mid 70s.
Overnight lows will only drop into the low 60s with lows Tuesday night cooler behind the cold front as they drop into the low 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Broad mid/upper ridging will reamplify over the central and eastern CONUS Wednesday in response to broader mid/upper troughing developing over the northern Rockies. This will quickly bring back temperatures that are 10-20 degrees above normal for Wednesday and Thursday allowing trees, shrubs, and other vegetation to continue to leaf out at a rapid pace this week. A lead shortwave ejecting out of the main trough will progress through the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes Wednesday, with an associated surface low traversing a warm front lifting through the central lakes. At this time, think any convection will stay north of the region given the building ridge and warm frontal boundary lifting quickly north, so kept Wednesday dry. A weak cold front may sag into the area behind this deamplifying/weakening shortwave and surface low Wednesday night, but it should wash out in response to heights continuing to build through Thursday, so kept Wednesday night and Thursday dry as well.
By Thursday night, the main mid/upper trough over the Rockies will progress toward the Upper Midwest while evolving into a vertically stacked, closed low that will extend a cold front slowly eastward.
Have slight chances for showers/storms reaching NW Ohio Thursday night, but most precip will hold off until Friday. More on that in the Long Term section below.

Highs will reach the mid 70s to low 80s Wednesday, with upper 70s to low 80s Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid to upper 50s, with upper 50s to low 60s Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The aforementioned closed low over the Upper Midwest will gradually fill and lift north across the US/Canadian border Friday through Saturday. The deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are still struggling to pinpoint how far east the closed low will make it before it drifts into Canada, but the guidance is at least in agreement on it lifting into Canada. This will extend an initial cold front through the area Friday night. The mid/upper ridge over the eastern CONUS will be very amplified/sharp ahead of this front during the day Friday. Given this strong ridge and the closed low, it is not surprising to see that the cold front has been slowing down, with most guidance now showing a late Friday night into Saturday morning frontal passage. Would not be surprised to see some additional slowing. At this time, stayed with chance PoPs in the warm sector for showers/storms ahead of the front Friday, but with forcing trending farther west, most may hold off until Friday night.
Have likely PoPs Friday night into Saturday as the front slowly moves eastward. The front will be weakening due to the upper support becoming further displaced to the NW, so not expecting widespread severe weather (overnight timing further reduces the potential), but a few strong storms are possible given at least weak to moderate instability and marginal shear. This looks like a better set-up for slow moving convection with locally heavy rainfall due to the jet dynamics displaced to the NW leading to weak flow. PWATs will be seasonably high, so will need to watch for areas of slow moving or training convection Friday night into Saturday.

Periods of showers and possibly thunderstorms will continue over eastern areas through Saturday afternoon since the cold front will be slow to exit, so kept likely PoPs in eastern Ohio and western PA.
We'll again need to watch for locally heavy rainfall. There should be some drying Saturday night into Sunday, but kept chance PoPs through the entire Saturday night through Monday period because guidance suggests a secondary cold front around Sunday or Sunday night/Monday as a deeper trough attempts to dig into the Great Lakes behind the departing closed low. Lots of uncertainty on timing with this, but it will definitely not be a washout.

Highs in the 80s Friday will cool into the mid/upper 70s Saturday through Monday.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next couple hours. Satellite imagery showers scattered to broken diurnal CU developing across the entire area which will gradually transition into overcast skies late this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the east. This cold front will result in widespread rain showers beginning near 21Z for western terminals and overnight for eastern terminals.
As these showers become more widespread, visibilities will drop to MVFR distances with ceilings gradually diminishing to MVFR overnight and IFR early Tuesday morning along the cold front.
Showers will begin to taper from west to east beginning Tuesday morning with lingering showers possible into the afternoon across the east.

In addition to the widespread showers, there is a chance for thunderstorms especially along and west of I71 where instability and wind shear is the greatest. Overall impact should be minimal for most terminals with the exception of KTOL which may see an isolated stronger thunderstorm with gusty winds up to 35 knots and heavy rainfall. With uncertainty in the timing, opted to not include the gust and handled the thunderstorm potential in a tempo.

Finally looking at the wind forecast winds will remain sustained from the southwest at 12-16 knots, gusting up to 25-30 knots along and west of I77. There has also been a weak lake breeze that has developed over the eastern shore of Lake Erie, shifting winds at KERI to have a northerly component and remain weak at 5-10 knots. Near sunset, winds will weaken areawide to 5-10 knots, remaining from the southwest ahead of the front then shifting to be west-northwesterly behind the boundary.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE
A quiet week is expected on the lake as pressure gradients remain weak. WSW winds of 5-15 knots are expected behind a weakening cold front tonight and Tuesday, becoming SW at 5-10 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds then go light and variable Wednesday night until turning east at 10-15 knots Thursday and SW at 10-15 knots by Friday. SW winds will gradually weaken to 5-10 knots Friday night and Saturday as a weakening cold front shifts eastward.

CLIMATE
Forecast high temperatures on Monday may be within a few degrees of the daily record maximums for some climate locations. Here are the historical record high temperatures for Monday, April 29th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 04-29 87(1899) 81(1942) 84(1899) 84(1888) 85(1942) 82(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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