Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poughkeepsie, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:06PM Thursday October 21, 2021 4:37 PM EDT (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:48PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 342 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 342 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through the area late tonight through early Friday and then stalls off the coast. Weak high pressure builds in behind the departing front and will remain in place through the weekend. Low pressure likely impacts the region early next week with a potential return to weak high pressure mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poughkeepsie, NY
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location: 41.7, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 212015 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 415 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move across the region tonight with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. A cooler and drier air mass will build in tomorrow with some sunshine mixed with some clouds. Another weak disturbance will increase clouds with an isolated threat for a shower to open the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 400 pm EDT . A mid and upper level trough continues to approach the region this afternoon. Heights will continue to fall ahead of the trough. The low-level jet will increase ahead of the trough for an increase of low-level moisture. A band or two of showers or a few thunderstorms will increase ahead of the cold front and wave of low pressure moving into southeast Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes Region.

The better synoptic forcing and low-level convergence will be with the front. The low-level helicity increases in the 0-1 and 0-3 km layers prior to midnight especially from Albany north and west, but the MUCAPE is less than 100 J/kg based on most of the CAMs. We did include a slight chance of thunderstorms for the western Mohawk Valley and the western Adirondacks prior to midnight. The increasing low-level jet will allow for south to southwest winds of 10-20 mph with some gusts 30-35 mph.

The showers over spread the region from northwest to southeast with PoPs in the high chance to low likely category. PWATs will be slightly above normal, so some pockets of moderate to borderline rainfall are possible.

Cold advection will sweep in behind the front with temps falling into the low to mid 40s over southern Adirondacks and upper 40s to mid 50s over the rest of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Tomorrow . A secondary cold front approaches the forecast area after day break. The better coverage with the showers with the secondary cold front will be north and west of the Tri Cities. A better surge of cold advection occurs, as temps gravitate closer to normal. Temps will steady then fall in the afternoon with the secondary surge of cold advection. Temps at H850 will fall to -2C to +2C northwest of the Capital Region in the pm with +2C to +5C south and east. It will become brisk and cooler with temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s in the valley areas, and 40s to lower 50s over the higher terrain. A few mid 60s are possible over the higher terrain. West to northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph with sun mixed with clouds.

Friday Night . The mid and upper level flow remains west to southwest, as the mid and upper level trough axis remains upstream and sfc high pressure briefly building in from s-central Quebec. The skies will be partly cloudy with decreasing winds. Lows will be on the chilly side, but we are heading into late OCT. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s from the Capital District/Berkshires and the northern Catskills northwest, and lower to mid 40s to the south and east.

Sat-Sat night . A piece of short-wave energy approaches in the southwest flow from PA/NJ. This short-wave may focus some spotty light showers or sprinkles based on the CMC/ECMWF and some of the Ensembles. We kept a slight chance of showers across the region in the late morning into pm. The moisture convergence looks fairly weak. It will be mostly cloudy and cool in the broad cyclonic flow. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s over the hills and mtns, and lower to mid 50s in most of the valleys. Decreasing clouds and cool conditions are expected Sat night. Some lake moisture may be tapped in the west to southwest flow off Lake Ontario for some light rain to snow showers over the western Adirondacks. Lows will fall back into the 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Lots of disagreement in sources of guidance/ensembles in the Sunday through Thursday time frame. There is a loose consensus for mainly dry weather Sunday as one upper impulse exits. Highs Sunday in the mid 50s to near 60 and cooler in higher terrain.

However, trailing upper energy into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwestern U.S. will slowly merge and track east Monday through Wednesday. Disagreements in track and timing resulting in low confidence on potential sensible weather Monday through Wednesday. If the system tracks more to the south, then any extensive cloud cover and train chances will be from the eastern Catskills through mid Hudson Valley, southern Berkshires and NW CT. If the northern track verifies, then all areas will see chances for rain and extensive cloud cover. The system could exit quicker and result in some dry weather later Tuesday into Wednesday but again, lots of disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles.

Either way, boundary layer temperatures will be cool and rain could aid in wet bulb processes at low levels to result in highs around 50 to lower/mid 50s, but cooler depending on the intensity of the rain. It will be cooler in higher terrain and again, if the rain and clouds are more widespread, highs may not get out of the 40s in valleys and warmer areas.

By Wednesday night, a drier period before a potential strong upper system drops out of Canada into the midwest and western Great Lakes and short wave upper ridging builds east of our region. Warm advection increases through the day Thursday well ahead of the upper energy and moisture advection also increases. There could be an increase in the clouds Thursday with chances for showers by Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. BKN clouds above 5000 feet will move across the area this afternoon in association with a warm front moving across the region. Clouds will decrease this evening, then increase later tonight as a cold front approaches. LLWS will be possible this evening into the overnight period with light winds near the surface increasing to southwest at 30 to 40 kts above 2000 feet. Scattered showers will accompany the passage of the cold front after midnight tonight with localized MVFR cigs and vsbys possible in any heavier showers. SCT-BKN cloud cover will follow behind the front on Friday along with cooler temperatures and cigs mainly 3000 to 5000 feet.

Winds will be from the south-southwest at less than 10 kts this afternoon through tonight, shifting to west-southwest at around 10 kts during the day Friday.

Outlook .

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

FIRE WEATHER. A cold front will move across the region tonight with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. A cooler and drier air mass will build in tomorrow with some sunshine mixed with some clouds. Another weak disturbance will increase clouds with an isolated threat for a shower to open the weekend.

The RH values will increase to 90 to 100 percent Friday morning and lower to only 60 to 80 percent during the afternoon. The RH values will increase to 80 to 100 percent Saturday morning.

The winds will shift from the south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph to the west to southwest overnight. The west to northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon, and then decrease Friday night.

HYDROLOGY. Hydro problems are no expected in the ALY Hydro Service Area through the weekend.

The cold front tonight into Friday morning will bring a few hundredths to two tenths of an inch to most of the area, except two tenths to a half an inch over the western Adirondacks. Drier weather returns tomorrow afternoon into Friday night.

Light rainfall amounts are possible on Saturday with no impact on the waterways.

The next significant pcpn event will be Monday into Tuesday, but QPF is quite variable.

Overall, flows will be steady or slightly fall into early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Wasula NEAR TERM . Wasula SHORT TERM . Wasula LONG TERM . NAS AVIATION . MSE FIRE WEATHER . Wasula HYDROLOGY . Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 9 mi67 min S 9.9 71°F 1013 hPa53°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 22 mi67 min ESE 1 74°F 1010 hPa52°F
TKPN6 22 mi49 min S 7G9.9 70°F 64°F1010.9 hPa52°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 54 mi49 min S 6G9.9 70°F 66°F1012.4 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 55 mi52 min S 9.7G14 71°F 55°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY5 mi44 minVar 610.00 miFair75°F50°F42%1010.6 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY16 mi52 minSW 13 G 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F48°F41%1011.5 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY22 mi43 minSSW 1210.00 miFair71°F48°F44%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9SW40SW4SE30000000000006SW66SW6SW9S56
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2 days agoNW8N8W6W9W7W6W8W60SE300SW4SW900SW10W9W7W13W11W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:39 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:54 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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