Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Painesville, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:47 PM EDT (17:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:51PMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202109231415;;044568 Fzus51 Kcle 230815 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 415 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146-147-231415- Avon Point To Willowick Oh-willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 415 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Today..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers early this afternoon. A chance of showers late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees, off cleveland 73 degrees, and off erie 69 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painesville, OH
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location: 41.72, -81.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 231358 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 958 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over northern Ohio will move slowly north today and tonight and weaken as it moves into Ontario, Canada. High pressure will build quickly northeast across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Friday. A cold front will move east across the area Saturday. High pressure will build east across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley again Saturday night and Sunday with a ridge extending north over the local area. A warm front will move northeast across the area Sunday evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Broad cyclonic flow around low pressure moving north of the area will continue today. Some drizzle is developing across the area and is patchy in nature and should last for the next few hours. Latest radar is showing some bands of the drizzle just forming at this time. Otherwise, wrap around moisture will keep a threat for showers over the extreme west this morning and lift north through the day.

Previous Discussion .

Early Fall season deep vertically stacked upper level low pressure system and resultant surface low pressure system over northern Ohio will gradually move north into Ontario during the day today. The surface low will begin to fill as it lifts quickly north of the area tonight and Friday. The system continues to wrap considerable moisture into the western portions of the forecast area resulting in continued rainfall over that area. Meanwhile, dry slot penetrates north into the rest of the forecast area at this time. The heavier showers that have been affecting northwest Ohio are expected to move northwest of the area this morning. This trend is indicated on the latest radar and satellite data along with forecast model trends. Will hold on to showers producing locally heavy rain for a few more hours and will likely remove that wording with the next update. Since the bulk of the heavy rain is out of the area and trends are downward for additional precipitation, decided to go ahead and drop the flood watch for northwest Ohio. As the low pulls out tonight and high pressure builds in across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, drier air will push into the region. The exception will be the immediate lakeshore and over Lake Erie where lake effect showers will persist tonight and gradually diminish Friday as flow supports the threat during this period. 850 mb temperatures drop to around 4 degrees C tonight into Friday supporting moderate instability. Even though lake induced CAPE supports showers, inversion height hovers around 5000 feet over the lake. So, depth of showers will be limited. Drier air works into the area Friday and inversion descends ending threat for more shower activity in the northeast. Otherwise, rest of the forecast area will see plenty of sunshine Friday. Cold air advection in the wake of the storm system will be short lived and keep temperatures in the 50s across the area for highs. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s tonight as the colder air spills into the region. Then, thanks to the sun and a return southwest flow developing Friday, temperatures will recover into the 70s most areas and middle to upper 60s in the extreme east under the lake induced cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A cold front is expected to move into the central Great lakes Friday night. It appears all locations will be dry Friday night but as the cold front moves into NW OH on Saturday the chances of showers increase. A few thunderstorms should accompany the showers as the front moves across northern OH into NW PA Saturday afternoon and evening. Showers could linger across the eastern CWA into Sunday morning with the cooler air flowing across the lake. All locations should be dry Sunday night.

Southwesterly winds and an increase in cloud cover should allow for lows in the upper 40's to mid 50's Friday night. Breezy on Saturday ahead of the cold front with highs in the 60's. Cooler in the wake of the friday Saturday night and Sunday night with lows ranging from the 40's inland to the lower/mid 50's near the lakeshore. Sundays highs range from the mid 60's to lower 70's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Confidence in the long term forecast is lower than usual with models struggling on where to carve out an Eastern US trough. The first upper level trough and its associated cold front may dig into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday with some low chances of rain possible. This would mainly impact the eastern CWA. Beyond Tuesday night the GFS model is the outlier with an upper level ridge across the region. Hopefully we will have better agreement over the next couple days so we can trust the long term forecast. For now will go with temperatures around seasonal averages for late September.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. Patchy areas of drizzle is just now starting to develop across the central and eastern portions of the area and should last for the next few hours. Wrap around moisture will still cause some residual showers over the extreme west this morning and gradually pulling out to the north. Otherwise, low ceilings and an occasional lower visibility with drizzle and showers expected. Conditions will be slow to improve as low ceilings linger into tonight. Best conditions will be expected at Erie where a return to VFR is expected. Winds will be mainly south and range from 10 to 25 knots across the area as gradient winds lift north across the area.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers Friday night through late Saturday.

MARINE. Surface low pressure was located just east of Detroit early this morning and is expected to drift to the north and northwest through the day. This will cause winds to shift to the southwest and south across the entire lake. Speeds should stay in the 15 to 25 knot range with gusts maybe reaching 35 knots. So will continue the small craft advisories. The risk of rip currents will be low through the day with the offshore flow. However as winds shift more to the the west this evening into the overnight hours we will likely need to hoist the Beach Hazard Statements from east of The Islands to Ripley. This threat will occur the longest from Geneva-on-the-lake to Ripley. All lake headlines should end by Friday evening.

It will take until Friday before the low gets much of a push to the northeast across Ontario as it fills. A surface trough lingers over the lake into Friday, with a chance for waterspouts forming on the east end near the lakeshore of Lake Erie late Thursday night through early Friday afternoon. Southwesterly flow increases ahead of a cold front that looks like it will move across the lake Saturday afternoon into the evening. Small craft advisories may return just ahead of the front on Saturday, but look likely Saturday night into Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ148-149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LEZ146-147.

SYNOPSIS . Lombardy NEAR TERM . Lombardy/Saunders SHORT TERM . MM LONG TERM . MM AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . MM/Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 4 mi47 min SSW 20 G 27 57°F 71°F1007.4 hPa (+1.0)48°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 17 mi77 min SW 8 G 21
45197 21 mi27 min W 19 G 25 58°F 70°F3 ft1008.9 hPa54°F
45164 24 mi47 min 57°F 70°F4 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi47 min SW 8.9 G 16 56°F 70°F1008.8 hPa (+1.1)44°F
45196 37 mi27 min S 19 G 31 58°F 71°F2 ft1008.3 hPa53°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi62 minSSW 12 G 2520.00 miOvercast55°F46°F72%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N12N14
G25
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N9NE7SE4SE3S3S9
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1 day agoS13
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S7S7S10SE7SE7SE8S7S7SE6NW3S7SE7S8S5W10
2 days agoS6S9S9
G14
SW3S8S8S8--S5CalmSE6SE7SE7S6SE7SE7SE7SE6S8S10
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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