Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 4:57PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 7:40 PM EST (00:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:49AMMoonset 2:49PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202111302115;;670811 Fzus51 Kcle 301456 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 956 Am Est Tue Nov 30 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez145>149-302115- Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 956 Am Est Tue Nov 30 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of rain showers late this morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 38 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor-on-the-Lake, OH
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location: 41.72, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 302345 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 645 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

SYNOPSIS. Troughing lingers in our region through this early evening. Later this evening and overnight tonight, a ridge builds from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys before exiting our region to the east on Wednesday. A warm front should sweep northeastward across our region late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night and be followed by a southeastward cold frontal passage Thursday evening and night. Simultaneously, the parent low should move generally eastward from the southern Canadian Prairies toward the mouth of the Saint Lawrence River.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Cyclonic westerly to northwesterly flow aloft persists through tonight. A shortwave disturbance embedded in this flow will move southeastward across our CWA this evening and be accompanied by a subtle surface trough. Low-level convergence and associated ascent along the trough axis should combine with 100 to 200 J/kg of lake-induced CAPE to allow light to moderate lake-enhanced rain and/or snow to form over eastern Lake Erie and shift southeastward across northwest PA and far-northeast OH early this evening. Behind the surface trough axis, multiple bands of light lake-effect rain and/or snow showers should develop amidst a west-northwesterly mean low-level flow of marginally- cold air and target far-northeast OH and northwest PA. This precip should dissipate during the predawn hours of Wednesday morning as weak lake-induced CAPE wanes via a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying a surface ridge building gradually from the TN and OH Valleys. Any new snow accumulations by daybreak Wednesday morning should be one inch or less and confined to the higher terrain of northwest PA. Fair weather is expected outside the lake-enhanced/effect precip. Lows should mainly reach the upper 20's to lower 30's around daybreak.

The cyclonic westerly to northwesterly flow aloft should remain overhead Wednesday and Wednesday night as additional embedded shortwave disturbances traverse our CWA. At the surface, the ridge will exit eastward before a warm front sweeps northeastward late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Daytime highs should mainly reach the low to mid 40's Wednesday. Lows should range from the low 30's in interior northwest PA to the low 40's in northwest OH Wednesday evening before readings rise gradually overnight via low-level WAA.

A swath of scattered precip, associated with moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front, should progress generally northeastward across our region during Wednesday afternoon through the predawn hours of Thursday morning. The bulk of this precip should fall as plain rain. However, snow or a rain/snow mix may occur in interior northwest PA early Wednesday evening before changing to rain as vertical profiles of temperature and wet-bulb temperature moderate via WAA. At this point, a brief period of freezing rain is not anticipated since blended model guidance suggests there will not be an significant elevated melting layer atop a surface-based cold layer.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. More active weather is on tap for the late week period as a strong mid/upper shortwave trough dives through the eastern Great Lakes Thursday and Thursday night supporting deep surface cyclogenesis over eastern Canada. This surface low will deepen to 987-989 mb in response to the left exit of a 140-150 knot 300 mb jet streak over the central Great Lakes Thursday, while progressing east across Ontario and Quebec. This will drag a cold front through our region Thursday with the front likely reaching the lakeshore in the morning then pushing across the rest of the area into the afternoon. Moisture advection along and ahead of the front continues to look limited, so suspect that most of the CWA will be dry to start the morning except for the lakeshore counties from about Erie and points east up the shoreline. Slightly deeper synoptic moisture will rotate through the cyclonic flow Thursday afternoon and evening as cold air advection deepens behind the front, so expect a better chance of scattered showers in most areas during that time. The exception will be from about Toledo through Mansfield where drier air winning out should keep conditions dry. Heading into Thursday night, 850 mb temps are progged to fall to -1 to -6 C supporting a weak lake response, but several factors will keep this very light and isolated. First, moisture will be very limited with NAM BUFKIT soundings looking very dry above 850 mb. Second, inversion heights will be crashing with lake induced equilibrium levels lowering below 3500 feet through the night. Third, boundary layer flow veering northwest will be too short of a fetch to overcome these negatives. For these reasons, kept light lake-effect rain/snow confined to eastern Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania where a Lake Huron connection will aid in some improved moisture. The lake-effect will quickly end Friday morning as shortwave ridging builds in. Guidance is indicating a fast moving mid-level vort max dropping through the longwave trough Friday afternoon and evening with another 140-150 knot 300 mb jet streak inducing a strip of light precipitation. The low-levels will be dry, but we could see scattered, light rain and snow showers from north central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania, with any activity shifting east Friday night. Stayed with NBM temps through the period which are near normal for early December.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Continued active weather through early next week as the northern stream jet remains very active. Northwest flow on Saturday and Saturday night and 850 mb temps of -4 to -8 C behind the aforementioned vort max from Friday will support light and scattered lake-effect rain and snow showers over northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with dry conditions elsewhere. By Sunday into Monday, guidance is trending north and westward on the track of a potentially strong low pressure system. This would be a warmer solution for our area with mainly rain showers Sunday and Sunday night, but this system has strong upper jet support with a potential blast of arctic air behind it by Monday into Tuesday. There continues to be big differences in the degree of the cold air early next week with the GFS deterministic being the coldest, but the pattern points toward lake-effect snow Monday into Tuesday. Due to the differences mentioned above, the amount and location of the lake- effect is very uncertain at this point. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. VFR tonight with increasing cloudiness.

Upper trough axis approaches from the west while a surface low pressure system will move west to east to the south of the area. Light rain will begin to overspread from the south after 18Z Wednesday, but timing is dependent on the terminal location. Expect ceilings to lower fairly quickly once again and reach IFR levels during this time frame in response to the approaching systems. Some visibility restrictions possible, but will go more optimistic with those and leave them MVFR for now.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible briefly for the end of the week in a couple of weak systems, but the next potential organized weather system to bring restrictions is Sunday night/Monday.

MARINE. Small craft conditions will occur across the lake through tonight with westerly winds up to 30 knots, but winds will die down after 06Z over the western basin and after about 08Z farther east as ridging builds in from the southwest. This will also shift winds more northwest during the course of the night. Return southwest flow will once again strengthen to 15 to 25 knots Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front approaches tied to strong low pressure moving north of the Great Lakes, so additional small craft conditions are expected. This front will cross the lake Thursday morning with westerly winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots, so high end small craft advisories are likely, possibly nearing gales. The winds will gradually diminish Thursday night into Friday as surface ridging builds in. A series of frontal passages Friday night into early next week will lead to big fluctuations in wind speed and direction. The strongest period of winds looks to be around Monday at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ143-144.

SYNOPSIS . Jaszka NEAR TERM . Jaszka SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . 26 MARINE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi53 min W 28G32 42°F 1014 hPa36°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi53 min WNW 22G26 42°F 1015.5 hPa33°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 23 mi131 min W 32G36
LORO1 47 mi131 min NW 21G23 42°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH12 mi56 minWNW 16 G 2520.00 miOvercast41°F30°F66%1015.2 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi48 minWNW 2210.00 miOvercast and Breezy43°F33°F68%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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This dayS5S5S5----SW7SE5----SE7S10
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1 day agoNW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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