Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Harwich, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:00PM Friday October 15, 2021 11:12 PM EDT (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 1027 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening...
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night through Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue through Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1027 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak high pressure begins moving offshore tonight. A strong cold front approaches from the west Sat with increasing southerly flow. The front sweeps across the waters Sat night with gusty post-frontal w/nw winds Sunday into Tue. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Harwich, MA
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location: 41.73, -70     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 160133 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 933 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will continue into Saturday. A strong cold front brings breezy conditions along with showers and possible thunder late in the day Saturday and Saturday night. Dry weather with seasonably cool temperatures follows for much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. 930 PM update .

Showers and isolated t-storms moving NE from eastern NY. This activity is along the nose of a developing low level jet and within marginal MUCAPES. Given the upper level flow and a bit of ridging across Southern New England most of this activity will pass to our north and west overnight. However, a few brief showers may impact portions of northern MA overnight.

Otherwise, the main story will be the unseasonably mild temps. Low temperatures will generally not drop below the 60 to 65 degree range given 60+ dewpoints streaming northward into southern new England. These overnight low temps will be around 20 degrees above normal of this time of year. In addition, this low level moisture will result in low clouds overspreading much of the region tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The Ohio low pressure lifts northeast through Ontario, lifting the warm front north to Canada. This will establish the warm sector in our area Saturday, along with enough dry air aloft to bring at least partly sunny skies. During the afternoon a low level southwest jet moves over Srn New England. With enough heating, would expect some of this wind to mix to the surface. Wind speeds in the jet are forecast around 30 to 35 kt, with some models showing signs of 40 kt. Gusts at the surface should reach at least 25 kt/30 mph with some potential for 35 kt/40 mph.

Cross sections show mixing reaches to 925-mb, with temps at that level reaching 16-18C. That is equiv to 8-10C at 850-mb. Fully mixed, that would support max sfc temps in the mid 70s with a few warm spots in the upper 70s. With dew points in the low to mid 60s, expect the humidity to be noticeable although not oppressive.

Precipitable water values will be around 1.5 inches. Normal ranges from 1.4 inches in Northern MA to 1.7 inches along the south coast.

A strong cold front approaches from the west Saturday, swung east by that low passing through eastern Canada. Note winds at 850-mb reach 40-50 kt and winds at 500-mb are forecast to reach 75-80 knots. These are strong markers that could generate strong storms along the front.

Model timing generally agrees on the front moving into Western MA around 5 PM and to the Mass East Coast around 11 PM or Midnight. Instability is marginal, but jet dynamics as noted above is quite favorable . and Srn New England is in the right entrance region, a good lift-generating location. The cold front will also generate good low level convergence. With these sources of lift and with the high PW values, expect showers and some thunder with local downpours along and just ahead of the cold front.

Note that SPC has all of Srn New England in a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms. Will need to monitor.

Once the front moves through, winds shift from the West Northwest behind the front and draw colder air and lower dew points. Dew points are forecast at 45 to 55 by early Sunday morning. Strong cold advection behind the front with 925 mb temps falling from 16C to 6C over Saturday night. Expect min temps ranging from the mid 40s west to the 50s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights .

* Mainly dry and seasonably cool for much of next week * Perhaps the risk for some showers arrives by Thu night or Fri

Details .

Deep upper trough over the northeast during the first half of next week will result in mainly dry/seasonably cool temperatures. The upper trough/cold pool aloft will result in scattered to broken cloudiness at times Sun afternoon into Mon, but given the lack of low level moisture dry weather will dominate other than a brief spot shower or two. It will also be a tad breezy with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph during Sun and Mon afternoons. The core of the cold pool aloft lifts off to the northeast by Tue and Wed; so expect to see more in the way of sunshine along with seasonable temperatures. By late in the week an approaching cold front may result in some showers by Thu night and/or Friday, but that remains to be seen.

So in a nutshell, much of next week will feature mainly dry weather given the position of the trough axis. Perhaps there will be the potential for some showers by Thursday night and/or Friday with an approaching frontal system. High temps much of next week will generally be in the upper 50s to the middle 60s with lows mainly in the 40s. We may even see some temps down into the 30s in the outlying locations on a few nights depending on cloud cover.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z TAF Update .

Tonight . Moderate confidence. Low end MVFR to IFR cigs near the south coast this evening will spread northward as the night wears along and impact much of the region overnight. Light S winds.

Saturday . Moderate confidence. Conditions improving to a mix of VFR/MVFR. Mainly dry, but line of locally heavy showers and embedded t-storms moving into western MA/CT 21-00Z/5PM to 8 PM. Southwest wind gusts to 25-35 kt developing.

Saturday night . Cold front moves through Srn New England early in the night. Showers and scattered thunder. Winds shift from the West-Northwest behind the front.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/ .

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Quiet boating conditions tonight. South-Southwest wind increases Saturday with gusts 25-30 kt developing along with building seas approaching 5 feet. Winds shift from the west-northwest Saturday night. Showers and scattered thunderstorms. SCA for the waters continues.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/ .

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ230>237-251. Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Frank NEAR TERM . KJC/Frank SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . WTB/Frank MARINE . WTB/Frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTM3 4 mi55 min SSW 2.9G5.1 61°F 61°F1014 hPa
44090 19 mi47 min 64°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi33 min S 9.7G12 64°F 67°F1013.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 30 mi88 min SSE 1.9 66°F 1014 hPa65°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi55 min S 5.1G8 62°F 67°F1013.9 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 38 mi55 min 64°F 67°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA2 mi21 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast61°F59°F93%1014.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA15 mi17 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast63°F61°F93%1013.4 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi17 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast62°F61°F96%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQX

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E43330E7NE4NE5E5E5NE7SE5355SW5S45S5SW73S7S6
1 day agoSW5SW3SW4SW4SW3SW40SW30W3NW3N43N3NE50NE65NE60000E3
2 days ago000000000SW4SW5SW5SW65SW7SW5S53S3S3S4SW6SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts (2)
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Pleasant Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:50 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:14 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:45 AM EDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM EDT     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:22 PM EDT     1.62 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:07 PM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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