Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Luna Pier, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 6:53PM Friday October 15, 2021 10:21 PM EDT (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 1:13AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 937 Am Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
This afternoon..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 68 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 65 degrees.
LEZ142 Expires:202110152015;;221956 FZUS51 KCLE 151337 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 937 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142-143-152015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Luna Pier, MI
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location: 41.78, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 152345 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 745 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

AVIATION.

An increase in jet exit region dynamics with absolute increase in thetae has led to a well organized area of midlevel frontogenesis rain across western Lower Michigan early this evening. Model data moves this area of widespread rain to the north and eastward with time this evening. Another area of synoptic scale forcing for ascent will arrive over Southeast Michigan after 06Z tonight as strong PV anomaly ejects northeastward out of the trough base over Missouri and takes a direct shot at southeast Michigan. A lot happens to the thermodynamic environment this evening as a good amount of cold advection is forecasted between 2.0 and 10.0 kft agl. Lapse rates steepen considerably in the lower troposphere knocking out the low column inversion. Will probably see cloud trends improve into VFR this evening with loss of the strong static stability. Rain activity then fills back in overhead as strong ageostrophic response to dcva steepens the cold front surface. Bulk of data supports VFR rain shower activity tonight with differential near surface cold advection supporting some shallow convective instability and MVFR to potential pockets of IFR after 09Z. Post frontal northwest flow will support a well mixed boundary layer and VFR clouds Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet early this evening and late tonight and Saturday. Low confidence during the mid to late evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 422 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

DISCUSSION .

Showers have thinned considerably across Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Recent models have remain overly aggressive with respect to near-term coverage, thus hedged down and removed all instances of categorical PoPs. As expected, lightning activity has been sparse, but non-zero as a couple strikes cropped up earlier near Dundee. Still possible to see a couple additional isolated strikes between now and 00Z given small amount of elevated instability near the Western Erie and Detroit River communities. Responsible surface low currently resides southeast of Monroe and will continue tracking northeast this evening and overnight. A lull in activity arises late evening before deformation-forced showers lift through late tonight. Overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to low 50s with NW surface wind shift.

Large upper trough progresses eastward Saturday morning with the axis pivoting over Lower Michigan. Notable decrease in H8 temps as the thermal trough works into the Great Lakes with morning values near 10C collapsing to almost 0C by the evening hours. It will take some time for the mid and upper levels to veer northwesterly and mirror the lower troposphere before deep-layer CAA ensues. Expect a sufficiently cooled boundary layer with high temperatures stuck in the mid-upper 50s, a solid 4-7 degrees below climatological normals. Although lapse rates will be steep in the lowest 5 kft (approaching dry adiabatic), saturation layer appears very shallow during the afternoon limiting precipitation to more virga than rain with anything that taps into shallow moisture channel off the warm waters of Lake Michigan. Did leave a period of Slight Chance PoPs for any brief showers that get going within the interior while Lake Huron fetch will suffice for slightly broader activity along the eastern Thumb. Inherited gusts look reasonable given only minor weakening trend from the crossing LLJ. Daytime stratocumulus scatter out after midnight facilitating several hours of nocturnal cooling guiding overnight lows into the 40s. A few inland areas to the north could briefly dip below 40F.

Heights begin to rebound on Sunday as the back edge of the trough arrives. Upper level confluence limits synoptic scale ascent and forecast soundings depict a column largely devoid of moisture. There will be a few afternoon clouds once the PBL matures which also supports renewed breeziness until the evening hours under uniform northwest flow. Amplified upstream ridge atop The Rockies will begin to shear out as Pacific NW PV anomaly intercepts the western edge. Dry and moderating conditions locally with minimal wind Monday through Wednesday before the next wave takes aim at Lower Michigan. Unsettled conditions on Thursday with stacked low followed by a chillier weekend.

MARINE .

A low pressure system over Lake Erie is moving along a frontal boundary stretching across the southern portions of Lake Erie and southwest into Indiana. This system is producing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the central Great Lakes with a greater concentration of activity across Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Saturday as the main upper trough axis and stronger cold front moves across the western and central Great Lakes. There will be a much greater lake response behind this front as much cooler air filters into the region. The cold air moving over the relatively warmer waters will bring a chance for waterspouts over the weekend. Winds will also increase with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots likely across Lake Huron Saturday. Gusts will be around 25 to 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all marine zones for Saturday.

HYDROLOGY .

An area of low pressure passes this evening with ample supply of moisture. While most of the heaviest showers remain just to the east, downpours are possible through this evening followed by several rounds of lighter showers late tonight. Total additional rainfall through Saturday morning is forecast to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. The long duration and weaker rainfall rates minimize impacts to localized ponding along roadways, poor drainage, and low- lying areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . AA HYDROLOGY . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TWCO1 7 mi32 min NNE 19G24 68°F
45165 7 mi22 min NNE 14G19 62°F 68°F2 ft
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 9 mi82 min N 19G22 60°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 9 mi52 min NNE 5.1G9.9 60°F 1007.8 hPa56°F
CMPO1 24 mi112 min NNW 20G23 61°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 29 mi82 min NW 23G25 60°F 1008.1 hPa (+1.2)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 37 mi52 min NNW 17G20 62°F 69°F1007.1 hPa57°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi27 minWNW 610.00 miFair56°F55°F94%1008.8 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI17 mi27 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F56°F99%1009.5 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH17 mi29 minWNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds59°F55°F87%1009.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi27 minNNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F54°F88%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr0NW5S30NW4000SE8000N5SE4N3NE4N4NW5NW4NW4NW4NW8N8NW5
1 day agoSE6S9S40----------------SW5SW7SW8
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2 days agoSW5SW5SW5W6W5SW4SW3SW30SW3W4W3SW50SW3SW8SW5SW6SW8SW3SW400SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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