Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood-Tower Hills-Harbert, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:44PM Thursday September 23, 2021 7:46 PM CDT (00:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:12PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1101 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.gale warning in effect until 5 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest wind to 30 knots. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Cloudy. Slight chance of waterspouts. Showers likely. Waves 10 to 14 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots through midnight. Slight chance of showers through midnight. Waves 8 to 12 feet. A small craft advisory will be needed.
Friday..West wind 15 to 20 knots backing southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots veering west after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots through midnight. Showers through midnight, then showers likely after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 52 degrees and at michigan city is 61 degrees.
LMZ043 Expires:202109232230;;059209 FZUS53 KIWX 231501 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1101 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-232230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood-Tower Hills-Harbert, MI
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location: 41.87, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 232324 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 724 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Scattered rain showers will taper this evening with gradually clearing skies overnight. Winds will also diminish tonight, but will pick up again later on Friday in advance of an approaching cold front. This cold front will bring a brief period of some rain showers late Friday evening into early Saturday morning. After a warmer and sunny Friday, high temperatures will briefly cool off back into the mid and upper 60s for Saturday.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Lingering showers this evening will be followed by a quieter Friday.

Showers are lingering this afternoon with two distinct areas of greater coverage. One area is in association with lake enhancement/deformation/TROWAL-type forcing across SW Lower Michigan into north central Indiana. A second area of persistent showers has affected primarily south central Lower Michigan in vicinity of the upper low. The upper low center exhibited very little movement this morning/early afternoon as vort filament wrapped cyclonically around the parent circulation. This upper low should become slightly more progressive to north this evening. Lake enhanced rain showers should also diminish over the next several hours into early evening as TROWAL feature begins to slowly erode/shift eastward and low level winds begin to back. Otherwise tonight skies should begin to clear from southwest to northeast as stronger mid level subsidence builds into the area following departure of the mid/upper level height minimum. Clearing skies and slackening winds should allow lows to drop into the mid 40s, but likely remaining in the 50s adjacent to Lake Michigan with onshore flow being maintained.

A quick transition back to warm advection on Friday (highs back into the 70s) as short wave upper ridging tracks across the Great Lakes. A strong 140 knot eastern Pacific jet streak is making its way across Alberta Canada this afternoon, and amplification of upstream short wave trough is expected as this jet streak dives through the base of this trough tonight. Quality moisture return will be limited through the day Friday, with perhaps a narrow window of better low level moisture transport Friday evening as low level flow trajectories become a bit more favorable with respect to southeast CONUS low level anticyclone. Fairly good dynamics with this short wave, brief moisture transport, and some frontal moisture-pooling should allow for a period of frontally forced rain showers to track across the area late Friday evening into the overnight. Progressive nature of the forcing and limited moisture should keep rainfall amounts in check in the tenth to quarter of an inch type magnitude. Have continued to omit thunder, although cannot completely rule out an isolated storm, particularly in vicinity of Lake Michigan where some lake induced instability is expected.

LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

A brief intrusion of cooler air still looks to affect the area for Saturday behind the Friday night/early Saturday fropa. Guidance appears to be hinting at a bit slower frontal passage, which would keep shower chances in place across the east Saturday morning.

The cooler air for Saturday should be short lived as broad western CONUS upper ridge progression allows for shift of low level anticyclone across southeast CONUS. Gusty southwest winds will likely develop in this pattern once again for Sunday night/Monday. Another Pacific wave ridging the ridge should allow for another sfc front to drop across the southern Great Lakes on Monday. Precip chances on Monday look meager with low level anticyclone across southeast CONUS blocking any notable moisture transport.

As previous forecast mentioned, predictability in longwave pattern breaks down post-Monday. Guidance does have a consensus to a more amplified pattern by middle of next week, but placement of central CONUS upper ridge and eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian upper trough placement still of low confidence. This could somewhat temper the warmup for midweek, particularly if trends in latest deterministic GFS verify of holding back the upper ridge axis to the west for a longer duration more inline with EC. Of greater confidence is maintenance of a dry forecast Tue-Thu.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

The upper low continues moving northeast, away from the area tonight allowing clouds to dissolve and clearing of skies to ensue as well as winds to relax early in the period. Winds will also tend to back towards south and southwesterly winds. This allows for VFR conditions to take over for the forecast period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ003.

MI . Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.

OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Marsili SHORT TERM . Marsili LONG TERM . Marsili AVIATION . Roller

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 8 mi16 min N 12 G 16 57°F 62°F6 ft1014.2 hPa48°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 17 mi46 min NNE 4.1 G 7 53°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.1)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 18 mi26 min N 16 G 18 62°F 1014 hPa46°F
45170 20 mi16 min NNW 12 G 16 4 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 31 mi66 min N 5.1 G 6 63°F 1014.6 hPa
45168 40 mi16 min W 12 G 18 53°F 46°F5 ft1013.2 hPa41°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 41 mi36 min 17 G 20 53°F
45198 49 mi16 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 64°F5 ft46°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 49 mi46 min Calm G 1 1012.8 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN15 mi51 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast59°F43°F55%1014.6 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN20 mi52 minWSW 510.00 miLight Rain55°F50°F83%1014.3 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI21 mi53 minW 310.00 miLight Rain53°F50°F89%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14
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1 day agoN8N9
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NE4NE4NE8N6NE8NE4NE6NE8NE6NE6NE9
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2 days agoS5S7S10
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S6SW6SW3SW5SW6SW7SW4N7N7N7N7N5N8N8N9N8N5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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