Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dune Acres, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:48PM Thursday October 28, 2021 4:16 PM CDT (21:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:48PMMoonset 2:25PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:202110290315;;926925 Fzus63 Kmkx 281944 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 244 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 28 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A 29.3 inch low to our south this afternoon will move across the ohio river valley on Friday. Expect breezy easterly winds to shift northeasterly tonight as the low almost stalls across the ohio river valley. While it doesn't appear we will see widespread gales behind the departing low, wind gusts could approach gales along the western edge of lake michigan Friday afternoon and evening with wind gusts up to 30 knots elsewhere. A cold front then pushes across the lake Saturday night shifting winds to the northwest into next week. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-290315- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 244 pm cdt Thu oct 28 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast to 30 kt. Showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Friday night..Northeast gales to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers in the evening. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dune Acres, IN
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location: 41.87, -87.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 282017 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 317 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SHORT TERM. 315 PM CDT

Through Friday night .

A 992 mb surface low centered over southern Missouri continues its slow movement towards the east-northeast, with light to moderate rain rotating around it, especially towards its northeast where dynamic support is stronger (upper level jet support and diffluence). Although surface winds are from the east, winds become more southeasterly with height, and that is helping move rain over the area. Rain amounts have mainly been light so far, and upstream too, though a couple reports around one half inch in eastern Illinois. Showers will continue late this afternoon into this evening. There may be some diminishing and light fog in the far south later tonight as the low shifts into the Lower Ohio River Valley, but otherwise rain showers are likely to prevail. This looks to be even a steady rain over parts of northeast Illinois later tonight and continuing into Friday morning, where lake enhancement will be a factor due to onshore flow and relatively warm lake temperatures inducing lake-effect instability. This could result in some widespread slower conditions during the Friday morning commute due to the widespread rain.

As the low moves closer, winds will pick up due to the tightening surface gradient. Gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible starting mid morning and into Friday evening, especially near the lake front. This strong northeasterly flow will create high waves along the Lake Michigan shore of Illinois especially, with regular wave heights on Friday as high as 10-11 ft tonight. This is less than the waves with the storm earlier this week, however still may end up resulting in spotty issues of minor flooding or spray from the lake.

Rain continues throughout Friday and into Friday night but likely focuses more in the eastern CWA. With still continued lake enhancement, it is expected that far northeast Illinois, including the Chicago metro, will see the most rain with this event. We have inched up our forecast rainfall amounts with some locations receiving over 1.25 inches looking more likely. Cannot rule out 2 or even a little over, considering the 12Z HREF probability matched mean (PMM) guidance indicates that for an event total in northeast Illinois. This is likely not to be enough for flooding, but may present some ponding issues during the morning commute.

Cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly steady over the next 36 hours or so, with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 50s, including lows Friday morning. Winds will become more northerly by Saturday morning, so although we'll still have widespread cloud cover, temperatures will be a bit cooler Saturday morning, with lows in the upper 40s/near 50.

BKL/MTF

LONG TERM. 315 PM CDT

Saturday through Wednesday .

The key messages in the extended period include 1. pleasant weekend weather in store for Halloween and 2. consensus that we are entering a cooler than normal pattern bringing more widespread sub-freezing temps to the area and possibly our first snowflakes of the season.

The closed upper low responsible for our late week rain showers will be well on its way east of the area by Saturday. North northeast winds will persist on the back side of the low, however, which could bring some lingering lake effect showers through the morning hours across northeast Illinois near the lake then trending east into northwest Indiana over the afternoon. A cold front does push through the area sometime Sunday morning which will bring some breezy northwest winds and limit warming only into the mid-upper 50s in the afternoon. Dry conditions are still on tap on Sunday which should make for a pleasant Halloween. Temperatures do begin to cool down after sunset with mid-upper 40s in the city and the lower 40s in the suburbs expected in the evening for Trick-or-Treat time.

Beyond the weekend, cold air from Canada continues to dive southward across the Upper Midwest. This will bring below normal temperatures across the area for the remainder of the work week with high temperatures only in the 40s. In turn, temperatures overnight will begin to dip into the lower 30s with more widespread sub-freezing temps becoming increasingly likely, especially across more rural areas outside of the metro later in the week. As to be expected when temperatures dip below freezing, we could very well see our first snowflakes of the season. At this time there remains some variability and thus uncertainty with the timing and placement of various mid-level shortwaves rounding the base of the upper trough, so for now will simply maintain slight chances for light rain/snow off and on during the Monday through Thursday period.

Petr

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

The primary aviation forecast concerns for ORD and MDW are:

- Rain becoming prevailing by mid afternoon and increasing in intensity this evening, with the likelihood of frequent IFR visibilities of 2-3 SM

- IFR ceilings becoming more frequent and eventually prevailing at some point this evening persisting into Friday morning

- East winds becoming northeast by Friday morning and gusty throughout the day Friday

Deteriorating conditions will be seen across the TAF sites through this afternoon and evening as rain showers become more prevalent. This looks to be even more of just a rain tonight into Friday morning, especially at the Chicago TAF sites as lake enhancement to the rain showers occurs. While visibility will likely fluctuate at times to MVFR or even briefly IFR later this afternoon/early this evening, the most likely time for IFR visibility in rain looks to be after 01Z or so and extending into the Friday morning rush time. Confidence is moderate to high in the rain trends, and that there should not be any thunder at the airfields or even over the TRACON area (worst case some sneaks into the south tonight).

As the low pressure system causing the rain and low clouds moves from the Lower Ohio River Valley early Friday morning to Ohio Friday afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten for stronger winds and move backed in direction. The direction is likely to not be any more backed than 020 degrees. How strong these northeast winds will be has some uncertainty due to the unstable layer upstream over the lake and the prevailing low cloud bases / mixing heights. There is potential for a few gusts to exceed 30 kt namely in the afternoon. Confidence in the winds is medium.

Some improvement in ceilings may occur Friday afternoon at Chicago sites and is likely at Rockford. The rain will likely truly become more showery with some breaks at times. Winds will remain gusty.

MTF

MARINE. 315 PM CDT

Another strong low pressure system will move eastward across the middle of the country over the next 36 hours, though this one further south than the earlier week one. The pressure gradient and lower atmospheric winds will be less over the area with this. With instability still over the lake, the potential for some 35 kt gales on Friday is there, namely into the Illinois nearshore. Confidence is high that if a gale ends up occurring, it would not exceed a mid 30 kt gale.

MTF

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 7 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745 . 1 AM Friday to 7 PM Saturday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 16 mi36 min E 5.1G6 56°F 1001 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 18 mi26 min ENE 8G8 56°F 1000.8 hPa51°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi26 min ENE 22G23 55°F 53°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 20 mi46 min NE 12G16 999 hPa
JAKI2 21 mi136 min E 13G17 56°F
CNII2 22 mi31 min ENE 17 54°F 50°F
OKSI2 23 mi136 min E 9.9G12 56°F
45174 30 mi16 min ENE 14G18 57°F4 ft1000.4 hPa (-0.3)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi26 min SE 5.8G7.8 58°F 59°F1 ft1000.9 hPa49°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 41 mi76 min S 1G6 59°F 1001.7 hPa (-1.3)
45186 47 mi16 min 56°F 57°F4 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi76 min E 14G15

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN21 mi31 minE 75.00 miLight Rain55°F52°F88%1000.3 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN23 mi21 minE 310.00 miLight Rain55°F50°F82%1001 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGYY

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE700E8E4--E4E9SE8
G15
SE8SE5E7E7E6E8E7E9E6E5E10E10E40E7
1 day agoN7N7NE4NE6NE6--NE6NE5NE40000000SE4SE4SE7SE7SE7E6SE7SE7
2 days agoN17
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N13N15NE13
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N10N8NE10NE6E6NE8NE10NE5NE11NE7N6NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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