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FXUS61 KBGM 040135 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 935 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will give way to a slow moving frontal boundary that will push through the area Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived early next week before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
930 PM Update...

Showers continue to slowly creep eastward. With timing a little slower than expected and drier conditions over the region, PoPs were cut back slightly. Meanwhile, mid to high level clouds have pushed into the region. These will continue to spread eastward, resulting in mostly cloudy skies over the region. As a result, sky cover was increased through the early morning hours tomorrow. This cloud cover may help slow down cooling of temperatures. While no adjustments were made to the lows, temps were held slightly warmer over the next few hours.

645 PM Update...

There was not much to change with this update. Sky cover was lowered some, at least until the showers from the west move in.
The slow moving showers are expected to move in later this evening, so PoPs were left untouched for now. Temperatures and dew points were touched up based on the latest conditions. Most locations are still in the 70s. Otherwise, conditions remain quiet for now as we monitor the showers in western NY and PA.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure in place across our region will attempt to slow down a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. This should keep most of the showers with the front west and south of the region through most of Saturday. Though a few of the models have a glancing blow from some light showers in NE PA and west of the Finger Lakes in NY. Coverage of showers should ramp up Saturday night given increasing moisture and lift ahead of the frontal boundary. QPF through Saturday night looks to be a half inch or less, so no concern for flooding issues. Instability also looks to be very little if any does happen to develop.

Temperatures tonight look to be a few degrees warmer due to clouds only falling to around 50 then struggle to rise into the low 60's on Saturday. Lows look to end up a few degrees cooler Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
120 PM Update...

Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms.
Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low 60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
120 PM Update...

A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
745 PM Update

VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide through tonight, and much of the day on Saturday. Expect just sct to bkn mid and high level clouds around during this timeframe. Later Saturday afternoon; after 18-21z Saturday CIGs do begin to lower into the MVFR and perhaps MVFR Fuel Alt category at AVP as periods of light rain begin. Overall trends are for higher CIGS and less rain further north Saturday afternoon/evening, for locations such as BGM and ELM which look to remain generally lower end VFR through the end of this taf period. ITH, SYR and RME are forecast to remain solidly VFR through early Saturday evening, with again, just a mix of mid and high level clouds.

Winds are east-southeast up to around 10 kts overnight into Saturday morning. These winds turn more southeasterly and increase between 5 to 15 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible late in the day.

Outlook...

Saturday evening through Sunday night...Periods of rain will bring restrictions to the entire forecast area. Looking mainly MVFR to MVFR fuel Alternate, but some occasional IFR restrictions are also possible, mainly on Sunday.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then likely becoming VFR later in the day.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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