Friday, January28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Friendsville, PA

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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
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Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:14PM Friday January 28, 2022 6:50 AM EST (11:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:04AMMoonset 1:12PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville , PA
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location: 41.88, -75.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 280914 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 414 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will bring snow showers to the region today. Falling temperatures later today will lead to another period of dangerously low wind chills tonight into Saturday. A warming trend will develop Sunday into the first half of the work week with quiet weather expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. 410 AM update . Main concerns in the near term are focused on the snow today along a cold front with some lake enhancement in central NY . and a secondary stripe of light snow across the Poconos this afternoon, sub-freezing temperatures and dangerous wind chills tonight, then persistent flurries in the central/wrn Finger Lakes tonight and Saturday morning . and another brush of 1-3 inches of snow into the Poconos/southern Catskills tonight through Saturday.

A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for parts of central NY and northeast PA from midnight through 11 AM Saturday.

Surface cold front arriving from the northwest with a broad area of light snow along and ahead of the boundary trying to overcome the very dry air in the low levels. A fairly robust Lake Ontario band is currently dropping south into Oswego County and should brush parts of Oneida County with a quick inch of snow this morning. Otherwise, most other areas should see a trace up to a half inch before noon as the front slides to the e/se and slows down moving into ne PA. The exception will be any narrow LES bands that set up south of Lake Ontario where a couple inches is not out of the question. A second piece of energy associated with a weak upper wave will move from the Ohio Valley into the nrn mid Atlantic region later today and combine with the surface front to produce another broad area of light snow across mainly northeast PA but also reaching into the southern Catskills in NY before dissipating and washing out by this evening.

The cold air mass behind the front, which is currently interacting with the relatively warm Lake Ontario waters to produce a well-defined band of snow, will push into the Finger Lakes this morning and early afternoon and be capable of producing narrow bands of LES. Some of the bands may have a hard time getting organized due to the weakly sheared environment along with the shallow depth of the mixed layer and the drier air moving in. However, there could be a window today where the forcing from the front combines with the steepening lapse rates and some of the leftover structure from the initial LES band this morning, which could lead to a couple quick inches of snow south of Syracuse and east of Ithaca. There could also be a Finger Lake connection that sets up along with a bit of orographic enhancement in the southern Finger Lakes.

The secondary corridor of snow into the Poconos this afternoon could generate up to 1 inch of snow. Either way, snow amounts across the region are expected to be light enough not to warrant any headlines for snow.

The primary concern with this air mass coming in today and tonight will be the cold air. Much of the region will see their highs this morning . into the 20s. Temperatures will fall back into the teens this afternoon and into the single digits above and below zero tonight in central NY . and into the teens in ne PA. The strengthening coastal low working with high pressure to the west will allow for a tightening of the pressure gradient tonight and into Saturday. The combination of increasing winds and below zero temperatures will produce wind chill values from -15 to -25 deg into central/wrn NY and the central/nrn tier of PA.

Late tonight as the coastal low lifts to the north off the NY coast, the northwesterly periphery of the storm will brush parts of the Catskills and Poconos with a broad area of light snow. A swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible in this area, with the top end of this range likely into Pike County PA and Sullivan County NY. The track of this system has been trending slowly farther to the west, so will need to keep an eye on these trends through the next 12 to 18 hours in case there is an uptick in potential snow amounts which could lead to possibly some Winter Weather Advisories. The snow should start to lift out of the area by Saturday afternoon.

The cold air and gusty north winds will likely continue through the day Saturday with temperatures into the single digits and teens above zero, but winds still chugging along around 10 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph . which will produce wind chills into the single digits below zero. The Wind Chill Advisory may need to be just extended through the day Saturday and into Saturday night as the very cold conditions may just continue and not really let up through Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. 410 AM update . The coastal storm will be well east of our region by Saturday night. Strong north to northwesterly winds will bring blustery conditions during the overnight. The National Blend of Models (NBM) seemed too low with winds Saturday night as a tighter pressure gradient will still be over much of the area. For this update, the Conshort was favored with the NBM and NBM 90th percentile also blended in. Combine this winds with expected temperatures ranging from around 5 above to 5 below zero, wind chills will be 10 to 20 below zero across CNY and into the Catskills as well as the Northern Tier of PA. Areas south of the Twin Tiers will be above zero so wind chills will not be as extreme, but. wind chills as low as 15 below will possible locally. With the flow shifting northwesterly, lake effect snow showers develop over the Finger Lakes late Saturday night. Dry conditions are expected across the rest of the region.

It will be a cold start to the day Sunday as temperatures will be just above zero and even slightly below, especially in Oneida County. Winds will be lighter but still strong enough to result in wind chills below zero through most of the morning. Temperatures will climb into the upper teens and low 20s during the daytime. The lake effect snow continues through Sunday afternoon. The flow does shift to become more westerly, so the main bands will be oriented east-west and should be north of the NY Thruway by late afternoon. By this time, the lake effect begins to taper off, so just a slight chance of snow showers will be possible just north of the NY Thruway. The Canadian Regional was favored for PoPs, though minor adjustments were made. These lake effect snow showers will bring light accumulations. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will be present, bringing dry conditions through Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday night will fall into the single digits above zero with some valleys just barely getting into the double digits. Winds will be calm, so wind chills are not a concern.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. 410 AM update . A shortwave trough moves through the region on Monday. Only the GFS brings some light snow showers to the region, but this forecast update stayed with the majority of guidance and kept things dry. With high pressure building into the region early in the week and hanging around for awhile, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday and possibly Tuesday night. A surface low pressure system sweeps across Canada on Tuesday, dragging a weak cold front across the Central US and into the Northeast. This front could bring some snow late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning before transitioning to just rain during the day. After this system passes through, another surface low develops but over the Central US this time and becomes better organized over the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday night. A warm front associated with this system lifts north, bringing another chance for precipitation. Snow will mix in with rain during the overnight but then mostly rain is expected Thursday as the system approaches the Northeast. There is some uncertainty with the timing of these two systems. The GFS is a bit quicker than other guidance. This uncertainty led to doing a blend of the NBM and the previous forecast, as NBM had much higher PoPs than forecaster confidence at this time. A rain/snow mix was also used for the ptypes, though it will be possible to end up with some other ptypes due to tight temperature gradients, but those details will be hashed out when this event is much closer.

Temperatures only go up from the beginning of this period. Monday starts the week with 20s and 30s for highs, but temperatures climb into the 40s Wednesday and Thursday after an upper level trough moves through on Tuesday and southwest flow brings much warmer air into the region. Similarly, the lows go from the teens Monday night to the 30s by Wednesday night.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Cold front approaching from the northwest will usher in MVFR clouds early this morning along with some light snow after the boundary layer overcomes the very dry air. The light snow and MVFR ceilings will persist through the afternoon before the dry air spills into central NY after 22Z. AVP and ne PA may see a more prolonged period of light snow this afternoon as the front slows down and a weak upper wave enhances the snow for a longer period of time. Could see a lull this evening before another push of some MVFR snow works in from the coastal storm.

NW flow behind the front and some enhancement off the Finger Lakes may allow snow at ITH, BGM and ELM to linger into the early evening. A much drier airmass will filter in again Friday night and begin to scour out the clouds and any remaining snow showers.

Outlook .

Saturday and Saturday Night . Coastal storm will stay east of the area, with NW winds gusting 20+ knots. Very dry air should keep the lakes in check and keep VFR conditions prevailing, even at SYR.

Sunday . VFR early, with a weakening system approaching Sunday night bringing possible restrictions from light snow showers.

Monday and Tuesday . VFR conditions under high pressure.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Saturday for PAZ038-039-043. NY . Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055- 056.

SYNOPSIS . BJT NEAR TERM . BJT SHORT TERM . BTL LONG TERM . BTL AVIATION . BJT/MPH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY24 mi58 minSW 310.00 miOvercast22°F14°F71%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGM

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW4N5NW3NW6N8NE5NW6NW8N7N9N6N3N4NE40S344443SW7S4S5
2 days agoW6NW5NW96W8W11
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