Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elmhurst, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:02PM Thursday October 21, 2021 5:07 PM CDT (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:44PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202110220315;;048961 Fzus53 Klot 212043 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 343 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 21 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-220315- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 343 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt becoming north in the early evening and then northwest 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves quickly building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft in the early evening and then subsiding to 3 to 5 ft toward daybreak.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmhurst, IL
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location: 41.89, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 212034 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 334 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SHORT TERM. 242 PM CDT

Through Friday night .

Short term focus continues to be on spotty showers with cold front moving through the region this evening, then cloud trends and frost potential overnight. Patchy frost is most likely late tonight over parts of north central IL and perhaps the far NW suburbs of Chicago, though better more widespread frost potential appears to be Friday night/early Saturday.

Afternoon vapor imagery indicates our old mid-level short wave was moving off to the east across lower Michigan, while surface analysis depicts a 1005 mb near Lake St Clair. A trailing secondary cold front pushing southward near the IL/WI border. Scattered showers have been occurring across parts of northern IL/southern WI today beneath the upper trough and in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone. Coverage and intensity of showers has been decreasing across the region recently as subsidence develops in the wake of the departing short wave (80 meter H5 height rises depicted across northern IL into this evening), though some spotty light rain or drizzle may persist withing the surface frontal zone late this afternoon. Scattered showers will likely be more numerous over Lake Michigan and into northwest IN into tonight, due to cold advection over relatively warm lake waters and a persistently north-northwest fetch behind the cold front.

Visible satellite imagery shows a fairly sharp edge/clearing line in our extensive low cloud cover across central WI this afternoon. Pure extrapolation of this trailing edge would suggest some partial clearing could develop into far northern IL this evening. However, with the cold front slowing as moves southeast of the forecast area tonight, the southern 1/2 to 2/3 of the cwa will likely see low clouds persist. Some clearing is possible across far northern IL (especially north of the I-88 corridor), though even here guidance is mixed in how much clearing will occur. The potential for at least patchy frost will exist where clearing does occur, with surface temps likely falling into the mid-30s in such areas by morning. Considered Frost Advisory headline north, but given some uncertainty in the extent of clearing have held off at this time. Have continued to mention patchy frost in these areas, and will allow evening shift to monitor clearing and the potential for the need of a frost headline.

Dry and seasonably cool weather will continue Friday, with a weak mid-level disturbance bringing some additional mid-high cloud cover. Favored cooler guidance for temps given weak but persistent low level cold advection through the day, expecting highs in the low-mid 50s most areas. Frost potential still appears greater late Friday night/early Saturday morning as more extensive clearing occurs behind the weak disturbance and weak surface high pressure ridge allows for light/calm winds overnight. Freezing temps are possible especially west/northwest of Chicago where lows are expected to dip into the lower 30s.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 305 PM CDT

Saturday through Thursday .

Main long term forecast focus is the increasing likelihood of a long duration soaking rain Sunday into Monday along with potential for strong easterly winds and at least minor lakeshore flooding. Saturday will be the proverbial calm before the storm, with the chilly start in the 30s outside of Chicago and areas of frost in portions of northern and central Illinois. Under weak surface high pressure, looking at plenty of sun, slightly below seasonable high temps in the mid to upper 50s, and light northerly winds for the afternoon hours.

Surface cyclogenesis will unfold across the central High Plains area on Saturday night in response to the ejection of a short-wave trough. Warm and anomalous moist advection into our region will ensue as the synoptic system deepens across the Plains. Retreat of the cool air mass in place to start Saturday and increasing warm advection from the south will set up a fairly sharp baroclinic zone across the area on Sunday. Guidance is in overall good agreement in the big picture idea of strong surface low tracking east from the central Plains toward the MO Valley Sunday evening and then to our south into Monday while high pressure remains anchored across the northern Great Lakes. The mid-upper level system will occlude into Monday, resulting in gradual weakening of the surface low.

While there is good agreement in the big picture, non-trivial variance was noted between the global operational and ensemble guidance, with the GFS suite decidedly farther north than the ECMWF and CMC suites. Leaned forecast toward the foreign guidance for this forecast, which increases concern for strong to very strong easterly winds into northeast Illinois later Sunday into Monday due to pressure gradient remaining tight. The surface low track difference doesn't really change the message of the likelihood of a soaking rainfall affecting most of if not the entire area.

The ensemble guidance indicates impressive for late October PWATs near or upwards of 1.25", about 200% of climo, with the operational guidance even higher than this. With at least some mesoscale frontogenesis driven banding likely in this sort of set- up common to the cool season in addition to the good large scale ascent, anomalous moisture availability and slow moving nature of the surface low will result in a prolonged period of steady to at times heavy rain (during likely heavier banding). Seeing a signal for this during the day on Sunday as previously dry low and mid levels saturate quickly into Sunday morning. Think the elevated instability axis is liable to stay mostly far southern sections or points south, limiting coverage of embedded isolated thunderstorms to isolated at most for locales south of I-80.

There is increasing confidence in rainfall totals of 1" or more, especially near and south of I-80, with high ensemble probabilities at this lead time (and for this time of year) for 2"+ totals Sunday into Monday. With PWATs trending higher with southern extent, also closer to the elevated instability gradient, think best chances of 2"+ rainfall will be near and south of I-80. That said, mesoscale banding and overall anomalous PWAT plume could certainly result in significant totals north as well. Long duration into at least early Monday afternoon (with easing rates by then) and limited coverage if any of convective rainfall rates should make this more of a river and stream rise issue with respect to hydrology concerns. However, leaf fall ramping up over these next few cool nights introduces prospect for poor drainage ponding on roads where drains are blocked by leaves.

Temperatures will only be in the lower-mid 50s for most on Sunday and probably similar on Monday, with not much diurnal decrease Sunday night. Turning back to the easterly wind concerns, this set-up will certainly be one to watch for lakeshore flooding issues into northeast Illinois and possibly Lake County Indiana.

The pattern will remain active through day 7, with signs of another system Tuesday night-Wednesday, with a more progressive lean on the 12z guidance. Uncertainty is high in overall timing, with temps trending back to near or slightly above normal. Another trough may affect the area later next work week, and how progressive (or not) this trough is would then play a role in local weather into Halloween weekend.

Castro

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

Aviation Forecast Concerns:

* Low-end MVFR cigs this afternoon with IFR possible especially in light rain. MVFR cigs rise this evening and eventually scatter overnight.

* Cold frontal wind shift to the N in the 20-21Z timeframe for Chicago terminals.

Surface low pressure continues to pull slowly away to the east early this afternoon. Trailing cold front across WI will push south across the terminals this afternoon, with a wind shift from west to north (350-ish degrees). Scattered light rain will persist in the vicinity of the frontal zone, though heavier rain from MKE east over the lake should shift southeast with the bulk of it passing east of the Chicago terminals. Low-MVFR ceilings are expected, with some patchy IFR possible especially within areas of light rain. Drier air will eventually spread in from the north behind the cold front this evening which will allow a gradual rise in ceilings, and an eventual scattering out of MVFR deck. Guidance depicts this occurring as early as 03Z-ish, though current GOES visible imagery shows trailing edge of low cloud deck across northern WI which extrapolation of current drift would suggest a later transition to VFR. Have pushed this back a bit closer to midnight from earlier forecast, though will have to monitor satellite trends this evening. Ceilings off of the lake will likely linger a bit longer at KGYY into the overnight hours.

North winds decrease and back more northwest Friday morning with VFR conditions expected.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 4 AM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 10 AM Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OKSI2 17 mi127 min NNW 5.1G7 56°F
CNII2 18 mi22 min NW 7G17 54°F 46°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi37 min NW 15G16 54°F 49°F
JAKI2 21 mi127 min WNW 6G14 54°F
45174 23 mi27 min NW 16G19 62°F2 ft1014.2 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi49 min WNW 8G13 1012.9 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 33 mi67 min N 11G16
45187 42 mi27 min NNW 14G16 52°F 56°F4 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi87 min W 9.9G12 53°F 1013.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 49 mi67 min NNW 15G19 51°F 1014.2 hPa (+2.7)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL7 mi76 minWNW 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast54°F47°F77%1013.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL12 mi74 minNW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F45°F72%1014 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL15 mi75 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast55°F48°F77%1014.4 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL17 mi75 minNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F46°F75%1014.2 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL21 mi72 minNW 910.00 miOvercast52°F48°F85%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORD

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S7S8S10S13
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1 day agoS9S7S5S5S6S5S6S6S5SW6SW7SW6SW6S4S5SW5S10SW7SW6S7S11S14
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2 days agoSW4S4S4S4S4S4S6S5SW7SW9SW8SW6SW7SW6SW4SW8S5SW6SW5SW6SW10
G15
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G18
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G20
S7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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