Monday, October25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 6:38PM Monday October 25, 2021 4:39 PM EDT (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:42PMMoonset 11:49AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 251913 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 313 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

DISCUSSION.

Southeast Michigan remains fixated late this afternoon within the deep deformation zone north of the occluding low pressure system now racing into northwest Ohio. Associated widespread rainfall featured within this favorable corridor will gradually relent in coverage with time going forward this evening, responding to a slow decline and eastward migration of meaningful synoptic ascent. Colder resident airmass leaves an overlake thermodynamic profile characterized by a convective depth of 8 to 10 kft and upwards of 100 J/KG of cape. This well mixed, steep lapse rate profile yields a turbulent boundary layer environment early tonight, maintaining gusty conditions and affording effective lake effect shower production within prevailing northeast flow. The downstream moisture flux and momentum transport favors immediate shoreline areas of lake Huron and Saginaw bay for some higher end gusts /40 to 45 mph/.

Trailing mid level circulation and attendant shear axis currently positioned north of lake Huron rotates across the lower peninsula overnight and early Tuesday. Ensuing increase in deep layer cold air advection in northerly flow as this process unfolds brings H8 temps to -2C by 12z Tue. Backing flow with time relegates additional lake effect over mainly the thumb within this time window. Limited moisture depth otherwise limits shower potential with greater inland extent, leaving conditions defined by continued or increasing diurnal stratocu within the background of cold, cyclonic flow. Resident thermal profile characterized below average Tuesday - late day readings arriving a solid 6-8 degrees under norms.

Conditions Tuesday night present as potentially favorable for greater radiational cooling, underlying environment characterized by loss of gradient flow under building surface ridging beneath a drying/stable confluent mid level northwest flow. Model guidance appears sluggish in removing lingering low cloud, an element of concern yet particularly with eastward extent. Upper ridge axis then anchored overhead Wednesday. Solid period of height rises offer a meaningful warming trend to bring highs to back to seasonable levels.

Late week conditions governed by behavior of strong height falls now crashing into the western conus. Main pv anomaly fixated within the mean trough base expected to eventually close off over the mid Mississippi valley. Finer details regarding timing, duration and magnitude of possible forcing locally remain uncertain at this stage, owing to a still unsettled model solution space in handling scale and positioning of the governing wave. A wetter scenario is certainly in play centered on Thursday night and Friday - this tentative timing perhaps affording mainly dry conditions Thursday with existing thermal profile now edged just above average /invof 60 degrees/.

MARINE.

Low pressure over Ohio this afternoon will quickly give way to developing low pressure along the Mid Atlantic Coast. Northeast winds this afternoon have come in weaker than previously forecasted, with frequent gusts only around 30 knots for much of the southern Lake Huron basin and Saginaw Bay. However, a surge of low level cold air will arrive this evening as winds back a bit more north-northeast, and still fully expect gusts to gale force over southern Lake Huron, with brief gusts up to 40 knots. Once the gale warnings expire for the nearshore waters late tonight, will have to issue small craft advisories for Tuesday through Tuesday Evening, as waves will be slow to decrease under 4 feet over southern Lake Huron basin, not until late Tuesday night. A ridge of high pressure will allow for light winds and small waves on Wednesday before yet another strong low pressure moves into the southern Ohio Valley in the Thursday-Friday time frame, resulting in strengthening easterly flow. This time, Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie should see the highest wind speeds, with the potential of wind gusts reaching 30 knots or greater.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

AVIATION .

IFR ceilings from PTK and south with MVFR ceilings from FNT and north to start this TAF period associated with moisture surge north of a low pressure system spinning across northern IN/OH. Light to moderate rainfall across southeast Michigan will decrease in coverage and intensity throughout this afternoon as drier air filters into the region. A moderate pressure gradient remains as the low pressure system slides to the east with gusts to around 20 knots possible into the evening. Stronger gusts expected across mbS into the early overnight period as strong northeast winds funnel down Saginaw Bay and inland. Lake effect showers will also be possible across mbS and FNT during the overnight hours. More northerly wind component on the back side of the departing low further decreases any lake effect showers for terminals by mid-morning Tuesday while MVFR ceilings linger across southeast Michigan.

For DTW . Predominately IFR ceilings into this evening lifting to MVFR tonight. Northeast wind gusts should remain below 30 knots through today. MVFR ceilings expected to hold at least through tomorrow morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through 18Z Tuesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ048-049-054-055-063.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ048-049-054- 055-063.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ362-363-421-422-441>443- 462>464.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . SF AVIATION . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi40 min NNE 29G32 52°F
45165 16 mi30 min NNE 21G29 53°F 59°F4 ft
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi52 min NE 6G13 52°F 1005 hPa49°F
TWCO1 16 mi30 min NNE 29G36 58°F
CMPO1 32 mi70 min NNE 21G28 54°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi40 min N 13G18 52°F 1004.8 hPa (-0.4)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi52 min N 14G18 53°F 60°F1003.9 hPa52°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi40 min NNE 29G34 49°F 1007.1 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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NE11
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NW4
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G11
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G6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi45 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast50°F47°F90%1006.1 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi45 minNE 15 G 2410.00 miLight Rain50°F47°F89%1006.1 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi45 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast50°F49°F97%1006.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi47 minNNE 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast50°F47°F89%1006.9 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi47 minNE 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast53°F47°F80%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5NE7NE10
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NE4NE70N7
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1 day agoW5SW500NW3N3NW4000000000N3NW4N3NE5NE3NE4N5NE5
2 days ago000000W4000W400S30SW4SW4W5W5SW7SW6W7SW9W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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