Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Conneaut, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 5:19PM Sunday January 16, 2022 4:52 AM EST (09:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 7:07AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Expires:202201160915;;430638 Fzus51 Kcle 160245 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 945 Pm Est Sat Jan 15 2022 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147-148-160915- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 945 Pm Est Sat Jan 15 2022
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Freezing spray late this evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Snow in the morning, then snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 35 degrees, and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ148


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conneaut, OH
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location: 41.94, -80.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 160541 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1241 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over southeastern Ontario will continue to build southeast across the eastern Great Lakes through Sunday. Strong low pressure moves northeastward east of the Appalachians Sunday through Monday, with a trough lingering over the southern Great Lakes into Tuesday. High pressure briefly builds north across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night before a fast moving low tracks east across the Great Lakes region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Lake effect clouds continue to pivot north and west into NW OH and MI this evening. Temperatures will continue to fall into the low teens with perhaps some single digits possible overnight. Regarding the new 00Z model runs, most notably, there has been slight westward shifts in the hires guidance. Based on these trends, we may need to extend the current advisory area another tier of counties towards the west, and consider warnings for at least a portion of the existing advisory areas.

Previous Discussion . High pressure will continue to ridge southward from eastern Ontario into Sunday morning. This high shifts east off the New England Coast by Sunday evening. So expect variable amounts of cloud cover across the region overnight into Sunday morning. Lows tonight will be on the chilly side with single digits across NW and portions of NW OH to the lower teens.

The highly anticipated area of low pressure is starting to be handled a bit more consistently in the models today. Its path has shifted slightly further east as it turns the corner and moves up the east coast of the US. Even with this slight eastward shift it will still have significant impacts on eastern OH into PA. It still looks as if we should see a TROWAL develop over the eastern part of the County Warning Area(CWA). Plenty of low level moisture will advect across the area as this storm deepens on its move from VA to eastern NY. Models are also hinting at some higher EPV moving across the eastern CWA about the same time as the TROWAL may be at its strongest. This points to a period of heavy snow from Mahoning County northward to Ashtabula County as early as 10 pm Sunday night then progressing eastward through the early morning hours of Monday. At this point I would not rule out a little bit of thunder as this area of strong lift moves from extreme eastern Ohio into PA.

So with that said we have gone to Winter Storm Warnings from extreme eastern OH into NW PA. We may be starting a little bit early but the heaviest snow should be starting around 10 pm, then continue through 6 am Monday. Just to the west of the warnings there still looks to be a period of heavy snow that has the potential to impact the Monday morning commute. So Winter Weather Advisories have been issued to cover this potential from Lake County southward to Stark county, then southwest to Know county.

Filtered sunshine is likely across much of the region through Sunday morning then increasing clouds. Highs Sunday look to be in the mid 20's to mid 30's. Lows Sunday night dip into the 20's.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The synoptic snow shield should exit far-eastern portions of our CWA by midday Monday as the nearly vertically-stacked and potent surface low moves northeastward from eastern PA toward southern QC by nightfall and a high pressure ridge begins to build from the west. Otherwise, CAA on the backside of the storm system, mean low-level flow backing from northerly toward northwesterly, and the seeder- feeder process should allow lake-enhanced snow bands to impact northeast OH and northwest PA. Up to several inches of fresh snow accumulation are possible. The heaviest, most-persistent snow may be focused across portions of northeast OH, including much of metro Cleveland, due to a potential upstream moisture connection to Lake Huron. Otherwise fair weather is expected outside the departing synoptic snow shield and lake-enhanced snow. Daytime highs should reach the mid 20's to lower 30's.

High pressure at the surface and aloft continues building from the west Monday night, providing fair weather for most of our CWA. Continued CAA and a northwesterly mean low-level flow should allow multiple bands of lake-enhanced snow to transition to pure lake- effect snow (LES) in and near the snowbelt as moisture farther aloft is stripped away. The LES should weaken gradually as a lowering subsidence inversion and low-level dry air advection cause lake- induced CAPE to wane. Nevertheless, up to several inches of additional snow accumulation are possible in the heaviest, most- persistent LES. Low temperatures should reach the upper teens to lower 20's.

High pressure should crest eastward across our CWA through about midday Tuesday and be followed by a weak northward warm frontal passage, which should allow the warm sector to overspread our entire CWA by nightfall. Lingering LES bands generally east-southeast of Lake Erie, in and near the snowbelt, should dissipate in the afternoon as lake-induced CAPE wanes further for the same reasons mentioned above. Otherwise fair weather is expected. Daytime highs should reach the 20's in northwest PA and range from the upper 20's to mid 30's in northern OH, with a westerly gradient in highs. Moist isentropic ascent aloft may allow light snow to blossom over Lake Erie and vicinity Tuesday night as a low pressure system moves from the Upper Midwest toward central ON. Fair weather is expected elsewhere in our CWA. Lows should range from the mid teens in interior northwest PA to the lower 30's in our I-75 corridor counties early Tuesday evening. Temperatures should moderate overnight as the low pressure system and WAA strengthen.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A strong cold front should sweep eastward across our CWA on Wednesday as the surface low moves eastward to southern QC and its parent shortwave trough moves eastward across central ON. Scattered rain and snow showers are possible along the cold front. High should reach the mid 30's to 40 degrees ahead of the front. Behind the front, a surface ridge begins building from the northern Great Plains Wednesday night as a longwave trough deepens over much of the eastern U.S. and is carved-out by multiple embedded shortwave disturbances. Fair weather is expected for most of our CWA, but LES bands should develop across the snowbelt and vicinity amidst a northwesterly mean low-level flow and CAA regime. Overnight lows should reach the teens.

Primarily fair weather is expected Thursday and Thursday night as the surface high pressure ridge continues building eastward and the longwave trough aloft persists. Light LES is possible in/near the snowbelt, but exact location is uncertain given model discrepancies regarding the mean low-level flow direction. Limited low-level moisture should limit lake-induced CAPE and snow intensity. Daytime highs should reach the mid teens to mid 20's Thursday and be followed by overnight lows in the single digits to lower teens Thursday night. Odds favor fair weather Friday through Saturday as our region becomes located along the western flank of the aforementioned surface ridge, the aforementioned longwave trough exits eastward, and a shortwave ridge then shortwave trough follow from the west. Below-normal highs and lows should persist.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/. VFR being observed across TAF sites is expected to continue through Sunday afternoon with the exception of KTOL where some MVFR lake effect clouds may be around through 08Z.

By Sunday evening, a major winter snow storm will approach from the south. A reduction in ceilings and visibilities is expected after Sunday evening/night with moderate/heavy snow expected at KYNG, KCAK, and KERI. Light to moderate snow will occur at KCLE and KMFD. Currently have visibilities down to less than 1 SM but no lower than 1/2 SM for now. It's likely though that the TAF sites that experience heavy snow will likely have at least several hours of visibility down to 1/4 SM, but would likely to get closer to event to nail down timing before putting that in the TAF. Snow accumulations are expected to be around 1-2" by 06Z Sunday at KCAK, KYNG, and KERI and near an inch near KCLE and KMFD. No snow, (and thus full VFR conditions), are expected at KTOL and KFDY.

Outlook . Non-VFR expected with widespread snow across eastern OH/northwestern PA Sunday night into Monday. Additional non- VFR conditions in lake effect snow expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Clipper system is expected to bring additional non-VFR conditions across northeast OH and northwest PA Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly with snow.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into this evening west of Conneaut. Northeasterly flow of 10 to nearly 20 knots veers toward southeasterly and eases slightly by daybreak Sunday as the core of a high pressure ridge shifts from central ON toward New England. Waves subside to 3 feet or less. The lake should remain relatively-quiet for the rest of Sunday as the departing ridge continues impacting Lake Erie. Easterly to southeasterly winds of 15 knots or less should back gradually toward northeasterly as a low develops northeastward in vicinity of the southern and central Appalachians.

Periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast Monday through Thursday. On Monday, northeasterly winds will back gradually toward west-northwesterly and vary between about 15 and 30 knots as the low deepens, overall, and tracks farther northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes. Waves will build to as large as 6 to 9 feet in the central and eastern basins. West-northwesterly winds back gradually toward southerly on Tuesday as a high pressure ridge moves eastward across Lake Erie and a warm front eventually sweeps north across the lake. Winds will vary between about 15 and 25 knots. Waves should subside to 5 feet or less by midday Tuesday. On Wednesday, southerly to southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots veer to northwesterly following a west-to-east cold frontal passage. Waves as large as 5 to 8 feet are expected. Northwesterly winds of about 10 to 20 knots are expected on Thursday. Waves should subside to less than 4 feet by midday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ012-013. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ022-032-038-047. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ014-089. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for OHZ023-033. PA . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001>003. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . Kahn/MM SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 25 mi82 min SSE 6G8
EREP1 28 mi52 min S 1G2.9
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 42 mi52 min ESE 7G9.9 14°F 33°F1021.8 hPa (-0.9)3°F
NREP1 44 mi82 min SE 1G5.1 11°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Last 24 hrNE21
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH15 mi59 minSE 410.00 miFair11°F1°F64%1024.6 hPa
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA20 mi61 minSE 810.00 miFair12°F-2°F53%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNE66NE6NE7E8E7
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E6NE50--4NE6NE3NE3E4E4NE3E3E4SE4E4SE4SE4
1 day agoN55N646NE5NE7
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2 days agoS5S3S6S5S5S5S3S7S6S4SE3S4000N30N54N5N4N8N7N5

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