Thursday, January20, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Province, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:42PM Thursday January 20, 2022 5:56 PM EST (22:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 9:56AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 427 Pm Est Thu Jan 20 2022
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow. Light freezing spray after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Light freezing spray. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..N winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night and Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon and Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 427 Pm Est Thu Jan 20 2022
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Blustery north northeast winds with areas of freezing spray tonight into Friday morning. High pressure builds over the waters Friday and remains in place until Sunday. A distant low pressure in the mid- atlantic will bring enhanced northeast winds to the southern waters Saturday. A cold front will move over the waters on Sun. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Province, MA
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location: 41.99, -70.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 202214 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 514 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds across our area, bringing clear conditions to most of southern New England through the better part of Saturday; the exception being Cape Cod and the Islands, where ocean effect snow showers will bring 1-2 inches of snow between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon. A distant coastal storm passes to our southeast during the day on Saturday. Temperatures moderate slightly on Sunday before a dry frontal passage ushers in more cold air next week. Our next shot of precipitation looks to be Tuesday, with the possibility of a clipper system affecting our area. Temperatures rebound by mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. An arctic front continues to sweep through and east of southern New England as high pressure builds in for Friday. By 12Z Friday, sub- zero 850 and 925 mb temps will be associated with this high pressure, with 850 temps between -13 and -15C and 925mb temps slightly cooler between -13 and 16C. Given shallow cold air, temperatures across the area will drop back into the single digits, west, and teens, east. Dewpoints will continue to crash as dry air moves in from the northwest, allowing for plenty of room for temperatures to fall overnight. Given clear conditions and a fresh snowpack, there is potential for decent radiational cooling overnight if we can decouple. Presently, the forecast calls for winds to drop to between 5-10 kt, but any lull in sustained winds would allow some of our typical radiators in western MA to drop below 0F overnight.

Winds will gradually shift from the NW to the North overnight. While winds will be rather light, northerly winds off of a relatively warm, 44F, ocean will keep the Cape and Islands warmer than the rest of the area. Overnight low temperatures this evening will drop between -5 and 25F. Nocturnal radiational cooling will be moderated across the Cape as cloud cover keeps the region socked in.

A wind chill advisory is in place for the eastern slopes of the Berkshires as our coldest locales may reach apparent temperatures of -15F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Cold air will continue to grip southern New England on Friday, with the exception of Cape Cod and the Islands. While conditions across much of the area will be clear, ocean effect snow showers will develop across the Cape, Island and Plymouth county thanks to a northerly wind. Given the top of the mixed layer will hover between - 10 and -15C, and SSTs are +5 to +7C, temperature differentials between 15 and 25C will generate a healthy amount of instability. Instability during the daytime hours on Friday will generate several bands of ocean effect snow. While the location of individual bands is still up in the air, there is high confidence in their existence. The potential for the best ocean effect snow will actually be overnight Friday, with northerly winds of about 20 kt. As diurnal heating becomes a non-issue after sunset, instability will decrease just enough to allow snow showers to become more widespread in coverage. The extent of these ocean effect snow showers will likely also overspread Plymouth County and Cape Ann in Massachusetts, but will be limited on their western flank given a wind direction between 360 and 020 degrees. Overall, between 1 and 2 inches of snow is expected across the Cape and Nantucket Friday into Friday night. While accumulations will be minor, sub-freezing temperatures will allow slick spots to develop.

Given an inversion to about 900 mb and 925-850mb temps well below 0C, unseasonably chilly high temps will grip the region, between 15 and 30 degrees, warmest in areas affected by ocean effect snow showers. Overnight lows Friday night will be almost a copy paste of Thursday night, between -5 and 25 degrees.

By daybreak on Saturday, shear will begin to develop that may inhibit these ocean effect showers from maintaining their overnight strength after sunrise. Ocean effect snow will continue through the day but will likely be lest robust in nature.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights:

* It appears increasingly likely that a coastal system looks to pass south of our area this weekend, leaving most of the area cold and dry. However, there will be ongoing ocean-effect snow showers across Cape Cod and the Islands.

* Brief moderation to temps to near freezing Sunday before dry frontal passage later Sunday/Sunday night.

* Possible strong Clipper low Tuesday, but much of early to midweek is dry. Temps below normal Mon, then brief period of near/above normal temps Tue and possibly Wed. Details:

Saturday into Saturday night .

A 1035 to 1040 mb strong high pressure centered over northern New England will be in control through the first half of the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry weather for most of Southern New England with light north to northeast winds and below normal temperatures.

It does look like the coastal storm that takes shape near the Carolinas Friday night will be mainly a non-factor across most of our CWA. With good clustering across EC/GFS/GEM ensemble members, there is now high confidence in this coastal storm staying far enough south with the center of low pressure tracking south and east of 70W/40N benchmark.

While dry weather prevails across most of Southern New England, given colder air over relatively milder waters allowing for shallow ocean effect instability and favorable N/NE winds, a continuation of ocean-effect snow (OES) showers seems likely to continue across Cape Cod, the Islands into part of South Shore into late on Saturday. Saturation of the -12 to -18C favorable Dendritic Growth Zone should favor good snow production and even the potential for bursts of moderate to locally heavy OES showers from time to time, with better chances across the Outer Cape. This is due to the difference between the top of the mixed layer and ocean surface temperature approaching 20C (with SSTs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and 925mb temps -11 to -13C), which is the threshold for snow squalls according to local office research. A few inches of snow are certainly possible with potential for some blowing snow (given sub- freezing high temperatures) in locations under the most persistent OES bands. Still plenty of time to fine- tune the locations.

Sunday:

As strong ridge of high pressure moves east of our area late Saturday night into early Sunday, this will allow southwesterly winds to warm 925mb temps to -7 to -9C. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday. This is then followed by a mainly dry cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon into evening, knocking 925mb temps back down to -11 to -14C by Monday morning. Lows Sunday night in single digits to mid teens for western/central MA into the CT Valley, with mid to upper teens for eastern CT/MA and RI.

Monday through Thursday:

Broad mid level longwave trough across most of central and eastern North America. Models also show a fairly active southern branch of the jet too, with a closed low that opens into an open-wave as it skirts across the southern tier of states thru midweek.

We will have to see if there is any phasing between these two streams. But current available guidance suggests better potential for a rather potent Clipper system around the Tuesday time frame. This seems to be the best chance at more widespread precipitation during this time period but given we are so far out, have kept PoPs no higher than chance.

Worth noting that the CPC 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook shows an equal chance of below and above normal precip for our area, which reflects the mixed teleconnection signals of a neutral PNA and positive AO/NAO pattern. There is potential for bouts of unsettled weather, but whether that could help eat into our snowfall deficit for the season (currently all four climate sites are running 6 to 10 inches below normal) remains to be seen. So largely stuck to blended model guidance for this time period.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight and Friday . High Confidence. VFR, MVFR across terminals on Cape Cod and the Islands. Ocean effect showers will generate low clouds and decreased visibilities from Friday morning until Saturday afternoon across the Cape. Winds will be northerly, 5-10 kt across the interior, 10-20 kt along the coast, with gusts to 25 kt.

KBOS Terminal . High Confidence. VFR. NW winds become N/NE by daybreak. Some mid level clouds may be positioned to the east of the terminal due to ocean effect snow showers, with little to no operational impact expected. Winds generally 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

KBDL Terminal . High Confidence. VFR. NW winds become N/NE by Friday morning, generally 5-10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt possible.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday . High Confidence. Arctic cold front crosses the waters overnight. Winds will switch from the NW this evening, between 15-15 kt, to the N by morning, generally 15-20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt possible Friday morning but diminishing towards 20 kt by afternoon. Small craft advisories are in place for the open waters on Friday. Light accumulations of freezing spray are also possible. Ocean effect showers will reduce visibilities near and east of Cape Cod.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Isolated snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for MAZ002- 008-009. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ235-237-250- 251-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Chai/KS NEAR TERM . KS SHORT TERM . KS LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . Chai/KS MARINE . Chai/KS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 18 mi61 min 40°F3 ft
CHTM3 22 mi63 min NNW 6G13 35°F 40°F1020.3 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 36 mi37 min NNE 14G19 36°F 38°F1020.8 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 37 mi72 min WNW 2.9 35°F 1020 hPa35°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 40 mi37 min N 16G18 45°F1022.7 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 46 mi113 min NNW 18G23 34°F 45°F2 ft1020.4 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 46 mi63 min 35°F 37°F1020.8 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 49 mi63 min N 6G8.9 35°F 36°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrSW6
G10
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G12
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G12
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NW16
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W6
G13
W7
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NW9
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G8
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W14
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NW12
G31
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G24
NW16
G22
NW14
G22
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G28
NW14
G23
NW15
G25
NW15
G25
W14
G25
NW11
G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA8 mi2 hrsN 1310.00 miOvercast35°F27°F72%1020.3 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA20 mi2.1 hrsVar 45.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist34°F33°F97%1020 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi2 hrsN 96.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist36°F32°F86%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVC

Wind History from PVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrSW18SW17
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SW13SW11SW12SW11SW10SW11SW10SW12W7NW10NW8W9NW10NW12NW13NW12N11N14
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1 day agoW21
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W12W10W9W9W6SW8S7S12S13S19
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2 days agoSW23
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G29

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Lighthouse
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Thu -- 12:52 AM EST     7.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:55 PM EST     8.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:15 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
6.8
1
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7.2
2
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6.6
3
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5.4
4
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3.9
5
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2.3
6
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1
7
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0.8
8
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1.6
9
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3.1
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4.8
11
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6.4
12
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7.7
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8.1
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7.6
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6.2
4
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4.4
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2.5
6
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0.8
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-0.1
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9
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1.5
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3
11
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4.7


Tide / Current Tables for Provincetown, Massachusetts (2)
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Provincetown
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:56 AM EST     8.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:59 PM EST     9.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:22 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Provincetown, Massachusetts (2), Tide feet
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8
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8.5
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7.9
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6.6
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4.8
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2.9
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1.4
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0.9
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1.8
9
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3.5
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5.5
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7.5
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9.1
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9.7
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9.1
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7.5
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5.4
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3.2
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1.2
7
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-0
8
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0.2
9
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1.5
10
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3.4
11
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5.4


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