South Duxbury, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Duxbury, MA

May 7, 2024 12:29 AM EDT (04:29 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM
Moonrise 4:58 AM   Moonset 7:40 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1003 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024

Overnight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming w. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 10 seconds and sw 1 foot at 2 seconds. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less.

Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 10 seconds and sw 1 foot at 2 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.

Tue night - S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: S 1 foot at 3 seconds and ne 1 foot at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 1 foot at 2 seconds and E 1 foot at 6 seconds, becoming S 1 foot at 2 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.

Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: S 1 foot at 2 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds, becoming sw 1 foot at 2 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.

Thu and Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and nw 1 foot at 2 seconds. Showers likely.

Fri and Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.

Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat night - W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1003 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A weak cold front moves farther offshore tonight. Weak high pres then builds over the waters Tue. Weak broad area of low pres then moves across new england Wed. Another low, potentially stronger, tracks over or just S of the ma/ri waters later Thu into Fri. This low exits into the maritimes Sat, followed by weak high pres over new england Sun.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Duxbury, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 070228 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1028 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and partly sunny conditions persist this afternoon except for a slight chance of a band of isolated showers and an embedded thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Tuesday will be the pick of the week with abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures.
Unsettled pattern mid to late in the week with cooler temperatures.
A few rumbles of thunder are possible, especially across the interior on Wednesday. Milder this weekend with drier weather, especially on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
1020 PM update...

Low level drier air will gradually advect south across the region overnight behind the weak front. But it will take until the morning for the Cape/Islands where stratus and patchy fog will linger tonight. Otherwise, high clouds will clear out late tonight. With light winds, lows will settle into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday is the pick of the week as high pressure and a dry air mass will bring a sunny day with even warmer temperatures than we saw today. 925 mb temps increase from 15C today to 16-17C on Tuesday which will support high temperatures in the mid 70s (inland) and mid to upper 60s (coast). Winds will be light, becoming westerly in the afternoon. By afternoon high clouds are on the increase ahead of a warm front which approaches SNE overnight extending from an approaching surface low over the Great Lakes. Clouds will thicken and lower through the overnight hours ahead of widespread rain showers moving in from the west. There remains some uncertainty as to how quickly the showers move in, more likely holding off until near or just after 8am.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights

* Unsettled and cooler Wed through Fri.

* Trending drier on Sat with temps starting to rebound.

* Lots of uncertainty for Sun at this point, but the upward temperature trend may continue.

Wednesday...

Stuck under cyclonic flow through this period. A shortwave trough lifts from the central Great Lakes early on Wed into Upstate NY/northern New England by late in the day. A frontal boundary lifts toward and perhaps through portions of our region. Lot of uncertainty at this point which areas will be within the warm sector.

Still a fair amount of spread amongst guidance with how things exactly evolve through this period. Latest suite of guidance has trended a bit faster with bringing in the precip. Though there is spread in where the heaviest rains will fall at this point in time as there is spread in guidance with how convection evolves. At this point appears that the greatest risk for thunderstorms is across the interior, but especially across the Berkshires. This is where ensembles GEFS/GEPS/EPS indicate anywhere from low to mod (10-70 percent) probs of CAPE AOA 500 J/kg. The risk is highest across the Berkshires as even convective ensembles such NCAR C-ShiELD and MPAS guidance also highlighting this area as well. This does coincide with the GEPS/EPS guidance of total precip AOA 0.5" with low to mod probs (10-60 percent) whereas the GEFS is essentially nil for our area. Seems that the latest deterministic echoing the ensembles with the ECWMF/GEM showing more precip for our area than the GFS. Hard to say which is correct as we are a bit more removed from the shortwave, but there is roughly 1-1.5 inch PWATs in place. For now have stuck with NERFC QPF.

Still think that the latest SPC Day 3 Outlooks is reasonable given the setup. The deep layer shear will not be an issue with bulk shear of 40-70+ kts in the 0-6 km layer. The instability is more of a question as mentioned previously and where we warm sector. The low level lapse rates look quite pitiful at this point for our region.
However, mid level lapse rates are around 6-8 degrees Celsius during the day. Forecast soundings show much of our area being quite inverted or stable. This would limit activity to being more elevated in nature. Think that there could be some hail risk with this. This matches well with the CSU-MLP for Day 3. It does highlight a risk of winds out in far western MA/CT where there is potential for being more within the warm sector. Stay tuned for future updates.

Thursday and Friday...

Still unsettled through this timeframe as we remain under cyclonic flow. Another shortwave ejects into and perhaps through our region on Thu. The deeper trough over the Great Lakes is anticipated to start moving late Thu through Fri. The trough digs from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/southern New England on Fri. A frontal boundary will still be nearby or over the region during this timeframe. A few waves may ride along the front bringing us showers.

Guidance in a bit better agreement through this timeframe with a low sliding along the front that is nearby/south of our region. This will keep us unsettled with rain showers. Given the location of the front and low we will remain on the cool side with persistent onshore flow. Did nudge down our temps a bit from the NBM on Thu as it is much too warm with persistent onshore low. For now have stuck with the 50th percentile of guidance, but suspect we will need to lower further in future updates. Actually appears that the NBM is more dialed in on Fri with temps as again we've got persistent onshore flow. Highs on Thu range from the 50s to mid 60s whereas Fri we are generally in the 50s.

At this point it appears that showers will be around for a good portion of this timeframe. The heaviest activity appears to be later on Thu into early Fri as low pressure is deepening south of our area. Removed thunder chances at this point given the cool onshore flow and little if any instability. Ensembles indicating that 24 hr probs of QPF AOA 0.5 inches is low to mod (10-60 percent) generally southern New England region wide. Will also have a bit of an uptick in wind speeds/gusts out of the E/ENE during this period. Though the LLJ strength is a bit spread out amongst guidance from 10-20 kts to up to 30-40 kts. This coupled with the high astro tides will likely result in some issues across the eastern MA coast. See the coastal flooding section for more details.

Saturday and Sunday...

Still under cyclonic flow through this period. Though does appear that a shortwave ridge builds into the eastern Great Lakes/New England for Sat. The next wave/trough slides into the Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic for Sun. Drier on Sat as high pressure nudges in.
Another frontal system could slide in on Sun bringing us more showers.

Not a whole lot of focus on this period given the active weather for mid to late in the week. Have stuck with the NBM, which seems reasonable at this point. Temperatures will be on an upward trend through the weekend. High temps range from the mid 50s to the low 60s on Sat as we will still be under northerly flow. Winds shift to a southerly direction on Sun, which will result in temps continuing to trend upward. Highs generally in the 60s.

As mentioned there could be some showers spreading in on Sun, but there is a significant amount of timing, intensity and placement differences with the forcing. Think the NBM is fine at this point with chances of precip.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

VFR for much of the interior with relatively light winds.
Elsewhere conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR along with LIFR, especially along the immediate coastline. This is a result of marine stratus/fog spreading in. Most confident for FMH/HYA and ACK in LIFR conditions developing now through 02Z. Could see some improvement visibility wise by 10-13Z as winds turn northerly, but ceilings will be much slower to respond. Moderate confidence for BOS/PVD and BED. Think BOS will briefly go down to IFR before winds turn northwesterly and scatter things out.
PVD/BED should generally stay VFR, but a some IFR level bases could leak in. Light SW winds turn to the N/NW late.

Tuesday...High confidence away from the Cape/Islands. Moderate confidence for the Cape/Islands.

VFR for most of the region. The exception is Cape Cod, Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Will start off across the Cape/Islands with MVFR to LIFR stratus/fog. This will gradually erode and improve to VFR, but timing wise probably not until 15-18Z.
Though ceilings may not improve at ACK as has been my experience in these type of patterns in the past. Light northerly winds shifting to the NW across the interior. Sea breezes along the coastline due to light winds.

Tuesday Night...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Starting off VFR for most. The only exception is at ACK where lingering MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Will see an emergence of MVFR to IFR stratus along the south coast. Could see some rain showers spreading into the interior late, but think MVFR ceilings won't spread in until toward daybreak. Winds will be relatively light out of the south.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF through 06Z. Moderate overnight into the AM push Tue.

Starting off VFR, but will see IFR/LIFR stratus/fog spread in toward 06-10Z. Should see these lower ceilings scatter out to VFR during the AM push, but some uncertainty here given the weak winds. Will sea breeze on Tue 14-16Z with VFR conditions for rest of TAF.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Tuesday night...High Confidence

Modest winds and seas continue tonight and tomorrow. Expect areas of dense fog over the coastal waters tonight as moisture increases from southerly winds. Fog should dissipate early on Tuesday as a weak front ushers drier air over the coastal waters.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Coastal Flooding

High astro tides this week and concern becomes late Thu into Fri with potential frontal wave tracking south of New England, generating onshore flow into eastern MA. Magnitude of potential inundation and erosion will depend on strength and timing of surface low. Too early for specifics with any certainty, but given astro tides are already over 11 ft at Boston, it will only take a 1 ft storm surge and modest wave action to yield minor inundation and erosion. Stay tuned throughout the week for updated information.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44090 22 mi90 min 55°F 51°F1 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 24 mi40 min SW 7.8G7.8 55°F 50°F2 ft29.8055°F
NBGM3 29 mi60 min SSE 1.9G2.9 56°F 29.83
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 31 mi50 min 49°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi60 min 68°F 29.80
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 33 mi60 min WSW 4.1G4.1 58°F 29.83
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 33 mi60 min 52°F 52°F29.83
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 33 mi60 min 58°F 53°F29.84
FRXM3 34 mi60 min 60°F 57°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 37 mi146 min SSW 5.8G7.8 54°F 50°F3 ft29.80
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 40 mi60 min SSE 5.1G7 55°F 56°F29.83
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 40 mi60 min 0G2.9 59°F 53°F29.83
PVDR1 40 mi60 min SE 1G2.9 58°F 29.8457°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 41 mi40 min WSW 5.8G7.8 54°F 53°F1 ft29.80
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 43 mi105 min W 6 57°F 29.8356°F
PRUR1 43 mi60 min 57°F 56°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 43 mi60 min SW 5.1G7 57°F 29.84
CHTM3 44 mi60 min 53°F 49°F
44085 46 mi60 min 51°F 49°F2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 46 mi90 min WSW 13G14 51°F 29.85
PDVR1 47 mi60 min SW 2.9G6 62°F 29.8160°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi60 min S 6G6 54°F 53°F29.83
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi60 min SW 6G7 61°F 29.83


Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KGHG MARSHFIELD MUNI GEORGE HARLOW FIELD,MA 7 sm14 minWSW 0410 smClear61°F59°F94%29.80
KPYM PLYMOUTH MUNI,MA 7 sm37 mincalm10 smClear57°F54°F88%29.81
KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA 20 sm19 mincalm3/4 smClear Mist 57°F55°F94%29.81
Link to 5 minute data for KPYM


Wind History from PYM
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Plymouth, Massachusetts (2)
   
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Plymouth
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Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:29 AM EDT     10.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:49 PM EDT     11.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Plymouth, Massachusetts (2), Tide feet
12
am
8.6
1
am
6.3
2
am
3.6
3
am
1.1
4
am
-0.5
5
am
-0.6
6
am
0.9
7
am
3.3
8
am
6.2
9
am
8.8
10
am
10.3
11
am
10.3
12
pm
9.1
1
pm
7.1
2
pm
4.6
3
pm
2.1
4
pm
0.1
5
pm
-0.5
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
3
8
pm
5.9
9
pm
8.8
10
pm
10.9
11
pm
11.5


Tide / Current for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
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Mon -- 02:21 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     4.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     -0.15 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:36 AM EDT     -4.77 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:52 PM EDT     4.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:08 PM EDT     -0.17 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
-4.4
1
am
-3.6
2
am
-1.9
3
am
2.6
4
am
3.9
5
am
4.4
6
am
4.4
7
am
3.9
8
am
2.7
9
am
-1.9
10
am
-3.8
11
am
-4.6
12
pm
-4.7
1
pm
-4.1
2
pm
-2.8
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
3.6
5
pm
4.4
6
pm
4.6
7
pm
4.3
8
pm
3.4
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
-3.2
11
pm
-4.4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,





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