Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Duxbury, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 6:40PM Thursday September 23, 2021 7:33 PM EDT (23:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:07PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 727 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers with isolated tstms after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue and Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 727 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A slow moving cold front approaches new england from the west this afternoon through Friday with scattered showers. Locally heavy rain is possible with isolated Thunderstorms on Friday. Periodic unsettled weather continues over the weekend. A cold front will push across the waters by Sunday morning. Unsettled weather continues early next week with periodic rain chances. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Duxbury, MA
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location: 42, -70.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 232020 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 420 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A slow-moving front will bring isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with localized flooding possible overnight into Friday. A secondary wave of low pressure will likely bring another round of rain sometime Saturday into Saturday night across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will bring early fall-like weather with cool nights and very pleasant days for the first half of next week. Mainly dry weather expected too with the best chance for a round of showers sometime late Monday into Monday night with a cold front.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/.

* Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with localized flooding possible overnight. * Flash Flood Watch in effect for our western zones. * Elevated rip current risk through tomorrow afternoon.

4 PM Update .

Mesoanalysis shows an impressive 556 Dm closed low situated over southeast MI. A slow-moving cold front to our west will approach Southern New England tonight. We will be in a moist pre-frontal warm sector, with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Expect on and off showers to continue this afternoon into early evening, but no wash outs expected. Breezy conditions with persistent southeast winds, gusting 25-30 mph at times.

Later tonight, the closed low lifts into southern Quebec and the 500mb trough becomes negatively tilted. A 40 kt 850mb low level jet will also overspread our region, helping to organize storms. Together with 35-45 kt bulk shear and 150-200 m2/s2 of low-level helicity, a few isolated storms could become strong or severe and capable of damaging wind gusts and even a tornado or two. And due to the slow-moving nature of the front along with PWATs 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, there is a risk of localized flash flooding where heavy rain develops. That could impact early morning commute in cities like Springfield, MA and Hartford, CT. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the east slopes of the Berkshires into Hartford county.

In addition, persistent southeast flow will also generate swells for much of our coastline into tomorrow. A Rip Current Statement has been issued for the elevated rip current risk.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/.

Friday .

* Risk continues for a few isolated rotating storms and localized flash flooding.

Dynamic closed low starts lifting to the northeast, along with the threat for a few isolated rotating storms and heavy rain threat. We continue to be in a tropical environment with PWATs approaching 2 inches out ahead of the slow-moving cold front, which is 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. While low- level flow and dynamics are impressive, widespread cloudiness and low- level inversion given the predominant southeast flow should keep overall severe weather threat scattered to isolated in nature. Having said that, it is possible we get a storm or two to tap into the strong vertical wind shear and low-level helicity, resulting in a few embedded bowing segments or even supercell structures. If that were to occur, we could get damaging wind gusts along with a brief tornado or two, especially along the mesolow and certainly in the vicinity of the triple point.

Temperature forecast wise, it looks like Eastern MA and RI could see breaks in sunshine that should send highs into the upper 70s and even low 80s, which is 5-10 degrees above climatological normal. With dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, it would feel uncomfortably mild and muggy.

Any leftover showers should come to an end across Western MA and CT by mid to late afternoon, with partial clearing possible along with dew points falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday night .

Lingering showers across Eastern MA and RI gradually come to an end in the evening. It appears that there would be quite a dew point spread overnight as the cold front would be slow to clear the region. While Western MA and CT should see dew points falling into the upper 40s to low 50s, Eastern MA could still be rather humid with dew points remaining in the low to mid 60s overnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Highlights .

* Another round of rain likely sometime Sat into Sat night at least across portions of eastern MA and RI

* Early fall-like weather for the first half of next week with dry weather dominating with cool nights and very pleasant days

Details .

Saturday and Saturday night .

The main concern with this forecast will revolve around the potential for another round of rain sometime Sat into Sat night. Upper level ridging off the east coast coupled with meridional flow will continue to result in very slow west to east movement of a cold front. It appears that this front will temporarily stall near or just off the coast as a wave of low pressure works northward along it Sat into Sat night.

There is uncertainty in regards to where exactly this front stalls and the westward extent of this next rain shield. Individual GEFS/EPS ensembles are showing some decent spread; so this forecast certainly main change. Currently it looks like eastern MA and RI are at the greatest risk for another round of rain focused Sat afternoon and night. However, this certainly could shift further west into the CT River Valley or eastward sparing a lot of the region. Again, adjustments may need to be made but right now our focus for another round of rain is across eastern MA/RI.

Sunday through next Thursday .

The EPS/GEFS are in very good agreement in a pattern change to cooler early fall-like weather during the first half of next week. Northeast trough will finally result in seasonable early fall-like weather with much less humidity. Low temperatures much of next week will be in the 40s/50s with highs generally in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Canadian high pressure will result in mainly dry weather for most of the first half of next week. The best chance for a round of showers will be late Mon into Mon night with another cold front. But overall, expect dry early fall-like weather for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z update .

Rest of today . Mostly low VFR ceilings with good vsby. Scattered SHRA. Southeast winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt and isolated 30 kt possible.

Tonight . CIGs/VSBYs lower to MVFR/IFR in low clouds and areas of fog. Scattered SHRA to start, becoming more numerous overnight with TSRA possible after 10Z. Southeast winds 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts.

Friday . Mix of MVFR/VFR as a cold front crosses the region. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. South winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across Cape terminals.

Friday night . VFR conditions for western terminals. MVFR improving to VFR across eastern terminals after midnight except for Cape terminals, where MVFR ceilings could linger through daybreak. South winds 5-10 kt except gusts up to 20 kt across Cape terminals early in the evening.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

* Small Craft Advisories across all the waters.

Southeast winds continue across the waters. Seas continue to build to 5-7 ft across most outer waters.

Patchy showers/drizzle and fog possible across the waters during this period. Thunderstorms possible across the coastal waters late tonight into Friday.

Lingering showers are possible Friday night as winds shift from south to west with 25-30 kt gusts possible at times before diminishing overnight.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday morning for CTZ002. MA . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for MAZ007-015- 016-019>024. Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday morning for MAZ002-003-008>011. RI . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231-232. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ233>237-255- 256. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Chai NEAR TERM . Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Frank/Chai MARINE . Frank/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 22 mi38 min 69°F1 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 24 mi34 min SE 9.7 G 12 64°F1019.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 30 mi109 min E 4.1 79°F 1018 hPa76°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi46 min 76°F 1018 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 33 mi46 min 75°F 71°F1018.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 33 mi46 min SSE 12 G 15 76°F 1018.4 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 33 mi46 min 74°F 72°F1018.3 hPa
FRXM3 34 mi46 min 75°F 75°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 37 mi90 min SSE 12 G 14 67°F 2 ft1018 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi46 min SSE 13 G 16 75°F 1018.2 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 40 mi46 min 73°F 72°F1017.6 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 40 mi46 min S 11 G 15 74°F 69°F1018.2 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 41 mi34 min SE 12 G 16 73°F 72°F1018.7 hPa (+0.6)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 43 mi109 min SSE 5.1 74°F 1018 hPa68°F
PRUR1 43 mi46 min 74°F 74°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 43 mi46 min S 5.1 G 11 74°F 1018.7 hPa
CHTM3 44 mi46 min SSE 9.9 G 14 66°F 67°F1019.2 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 46 mi34 min SE 18 G 19 1019 hPa (+0.7)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi46 min SE 11 G 16 72°F 72°F1017.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi46 min SSE 17 G 21 73°F 72°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA7 mi39 minSE 710.00 miOvercast72°F68°F88%1018.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA7 mi42 minSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1018.6 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi42 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain75°F68°F79%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPYM

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE5SE5CalmSE3SE6S3CalmCalmCalm34SE4SE6SE10S7
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2 days agoE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE45S4SE53SW8S7S7SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Plymouth, Massachusetts (2)
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Plymouth
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:23 AM EDT     10.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT     10.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.8109.98.86.94.72.30.70.31.43.45.88.29.810.19.27.55.4310.10.72.44.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EDT     -4.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM EDT     4.37 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:57 AM EDT     -0.21 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:45 PM EDT     -4.51 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:51 PM EDT     0.20 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT     4.31 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.3-3.9-4.6-4.6-3.9-2.523.64.34.343-0.7-3.3-4.3-4.5-4-2.91.23.34.14.343.3

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