Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 6:47PM Monday October 18, 2021 4:04 PM EDT (20:04 UTC) Moonrise 5:18PMMoonset 4:34AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0088.000000t0000z-211014t2330z/ 652 Pm Edt Thu Oct 14 2021
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4181 8349 4195 8337 4196 8328 4225 8318 4232 8312 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4178 8334 time...mot...loc 2251z 256deg 28kt 4235 8301 4192 8315
LCZ423 Expires:202110142302;;688775 FZUS73 KDTX 142252 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 LCZ423-LEZ444-142302-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 181957 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

DISCUSSION.

The satellite presentation is impressive for this time of year as clear sky extends from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, and nearly to the Texas Gulf coast. This broad stretch of benign weather is in place downstream of the ridge axis within a slowly progressive, highly amplified large scale upper air pattern. Subsidence associated with the ridge is powering clear sky and full sun in SE MI giving traction to a new round of above normal temperatures starting with highs mainly in the mid 60s this afternoon. These slightly warmer temperatures provide some buffer for lows tonight along with an ever so slight uptick in wind after midnight. A few readings touching the upper 30s remain possible in the typically sheltered regions of the Thumb and Saginaw valley, however guidance in the 40-45 degree range looks Ok and is standard for mid October.

High pressure remains firmly in control of dry weather Tuesday while drifting slightly eastward. The resulting increase of SW gradient wind accelerates the warming trend as temperatures warm to highs in the lower 70s. Model RH depictions do suggest some increase in high clouds as patchy cirrus leaving the Rockies today reaches Lower MI Tuesday afternoon. High clouds thicken and lower toward mid levels during the night as the upper level low moves into the Plains while drawing in a hybrid Pacific/Gulf moisture plume. The clouds combine with continued SW low level flow in support of mild temperatures holding around 50 through Wednesday morning.

The inbound moisture takes until later Wednesday to materialize in showers as model soundings indicate dry air holding much of the day below 800 mb. The low level dry air is entrenched in the residual high pressure air mass/warm sector SW flow ahead of the front settling into northern Lower MI. The Plains low pressure system then makes an eastward move along the front into the Great Lakes Wednesday night while bringing low level jet supported moisture transport. Showers with a rumble of thunder expand in the conveyor of isentropic lift augmented by forcing associated with the compact yet energetic upper level circulation. Agreement is solid among the various deterministic models on the depiction of the system then developing a strong occlusion that keeps showers in play during Thursday likely bookending a period of dry slot forced drizzle. The trend toward categorical POPs in the NBM database Wednesday night into Thursday looks reasonable for SE MI given the strength and organization of this system combined with the generous Gulf moisture supply.

Cooler air remains in track to flow into the Great Lakes on heels of this system to finish the week. Highs return to the 50s by Friday and linger there during the weekend.

MARINE.

Northwest flow will slowly continue to diminish through the afternoon hours as the surface gradient relaxes. This allowed the small craft advisories that were in effect earlier this morning to be cancelled. Overall, dry and benign marine conditions will prevail through the mid-week as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. Northwest flow this afternoon will back to the southwest later Monday as the ridge pushes eastward.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

AVIATION .

VFR conditions will hold through the taf forecast as high pressure remains in control. A dry resident airmass will keep skies clear with only a few clouds found over the Thumb due to lake moisture. Winds out of the northwest today will weak tonight while backing to the southwest as the ridge axis passes east. Some afternoon gusts into the teens possible will be possible Tuesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . SS AVIATION . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi65 min SE 4.1G6 62°F
45165 23 mi25 min SW 1.9G3.9 63°F 65°F
TWCO1 23 mi35 min SE 2.9G4.1 62°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi47 min W 8G12 66°F 1017.8 hPa40°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi65 min NNW 5.1G6 58°F 1019.3 hPa (-1.0)
CMPO1 34 mi95 min NE 6G8 61°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi65 min NNW 4.1G14 62°F 1019 hPa (-1.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 38 mi65 min NW 3.9G5.8 59°F 61°F1 ft1018.5 hPa (-1.1)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi47 min W 1.9G5.1 59°F 65°F1018.2 hPa35°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 47 mi35 min W 7.8G12 58°F 65°F1018.9 hPa44°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi70 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F40°F44%1019 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi70 minWNW 610.00 miFair66°F38°F36%1018.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi72 minWNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds65°F39°F39%1019.1 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi72 minWNW 610.00 miFair69°F39°F33%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
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NW9NW6W6W8W5W6W6W4W4W5W3NW7NW6NW4NW5NW4W3W3NW30NW50S6
1 day agoW8
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W8W6W4W5W7W9W5W7W5W6W5W7W7W5W4NW8NW10N11
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2 days agoN5N6N4NW7NW9N7N5NW4NW4NW6NW8NW6NW5NW10NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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