Thursday, January20, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday January 20, 2022 5:46 PM CST (23:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:37PMMoonset 10:08AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202201210415;;540426 Fzus53 Klot 202116 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 316 Pm Cst Thu Jan 20 2022 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-210415- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 316 Pm Cst Thu Jan 20 2022
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt after midnight. Slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory will likely be needed. Wave forecast is for ice free areas
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 202110 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 310 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

SHORT TERM. Issued at 310 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

Through Friday night .

As mentioned in the updated AFD, roughly 90% of the area has experienced a sunny, but cold day with temperatures only topping out in the teens to low 20s. The only weather of note beyond the cold is the ongoing lake effect snow showers across parts of northwestern IN. These snow showers have remained on the light side for the past several hours. However, a more organized land breeze convergence zone early this morning resulted in a period of heavy showers and amounts of 3+ inches across northeastern parts of Porter County IN. While travel was impacted with these early morning heavy lake effect snow showers, impacts have abated over the past couple hours, with interstate webcams on I-80/90 and I-94 showing mainly clear roads. With this in mind we did consider ending the ongoing winter weather advisory for Porter county, but have instead opted to continue it. The main reason for this being the continued signal for another better organized band of lake effect snow showers developing over, or near this area into this evening.

As is typical with such lake effect snow events, confidence is not the highest with the inland or westward extent of this activity this evening into tonight. However, considering the thermodynamic setup over Lake Michigan (featuring lake induced equilibrium heights around 6500 feet) will change little into this evening, it is likely we will see these lake effect showers continue to become a bit more organized (especially just offshore) along a developing boundary layer convergence zone through the evening. If these snow showers continue to impact northern Porter county this evening it is possible the snow could fall at a decent clip to result in more localized travel impacts, in which case the going winter weather advisory would need to be extended into this evening. Unfortunately, confidence is currently not high enough to do so at this time, so the path of least regret is to keep the advisory going through 6 pm, and extend it if needed rather then simply ending the advisory now.

With time later this evening and overnight the main focus for these lake effect snow bands may begin to shift west- northwestward offshore towards the northeastern IL shores. It appears that a land breeze developing over northeastern IL may keep this focused band of heavier lake effect snow just offshore through the overnight hours. While this is the case, I cannot rule out some of these heavier snow showers attempting to periodically brush areas right along the lakeshore in and around Chicago overnight. Fortunately it appears the residence time of any of these showers over northeastern IL will remain short enough to limit any potential travel impacts overnight.

The lake effect threat will come to a quick end by early Friday morning as the low level flow shifts southerly following the eastward departure of a surface high. This should result in a mostly sunny and dry day across the area for Friday. Temperatures will end up warmer than those observed today, but with readings in the 20s, it will still be a bit below the seasonal average.

Winds become increasingly breezy Friday night in advance of an area of low pressure shifting eastward across southern Canada and the Upper Midwest. This should result in low temperatures occurring Friday evening, with readings becoming steady or slowly rising overnight.

KJB

LONG TERM. Issued at 304 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

Saturday through Thursday .

An active pattern will develop this weekend into early next week as a series of mid-level waves rotate around deep troughing anchored over Hudson Bay. Three distinct waves will each bring the potential for accumulating snow to the area.

System 1 (late Fri night into Sat): A somewhat moisture-starved wave will shift across the Upper MS Valley during this period. However, a period of modest linear ascent along the main trough axis should be sufficient to generate a band of light snow that will extend southward into northern Illinois Saturday morning. Minor accumulations of a tenth of an inch or two are possible, mainly north of I-80. Blustery SW winds gusting to 25 mph in the morning will veer W in the afternoon.

System 2 (late Sat night into Sun morning): An Alberta Clipper will dig southeast across the area during this time. Appreciable deep-layer forcing via an upper jet left-exit, the mid-level wave, and stacked low-level Fgen support a vigorous precip response. a limiting factor in precip amount will be a generally short duration (<6 hours) at any given location. However, a substantially deep DGZ indicative of a high SLR snowfall of 20:1 or potentially higher will produce a very fluffy snow with QPF values around or under 0.1". Current messaging is for 1-2" of snow, with a local corridor of higher amounts possible where the low-level Fgen response is most pronounced.

System 3 (late Sun night into Mon evening): Another clipper will move into the western Great Lakes during this time, but likely take a more northern trajectory than System 2. An anti- cyclonically curved jet entrance and strong low-level WAA should force a modest precip shield across Wisconsin that may brush northern Illinois with accumulating snow on Monday. Timing of this wave will need to be closely monitored as any slowing trends as noted by the GFS will allow the wave to begin to phase with a southern stream system Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday through Thursday: Another core of arctic air will arrive behind System 3 by Tuesday morning, extending the period of below- normal temps into at least the end of the week. Thermodynamics are favorable for another period of LES downwind of Lake Michigan into northwest Indiana, with a potential for LES to back slightly westward onshore into northeast Illinois at onset late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Drier conditions, backing winds and the onset of low- level WAA Wednesday night will end the LES in northwest Indiana.

Kluber

AVIATION. Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

For the 18Z TAFs .

The minor concerns include:

* Winds varying from 340-010 deg this afternoon at around 10 kt * Lake effect MVFR CIGs at GYY and possibly MDW tonight into Friday morning, with occasional -SHSN at or near GYY

Primarily quiet period in store for the terminals, with minor exception of near/along the Lake Michigan shore. GYY seeing MVFR lake effect CIGs which should persist through Friday morning. Also could see occasional light snow or flurries there this afternoon through early Friday as the lake effect activity swings around. MDW given proximity to the lake could have BKN higher MVFR CIGs this evening into Friday morning, though confidence is lower and not expecting any flurries. Wind direction has been varying from 340 to 010 degrees over northeast Illinois, which should continue with speeds near to occasionally a bit over 10 kt. Winds will go light/variable to calm tonight and then become south-southwesterly on Friday.

Castro

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . Winter Weather Advisory . INZ002 until 6 PM Thursday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 6 PM Thursday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OKSI2 9 mi106 min NNE 7G8 18°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi46 min NNW 12G14 16°F 6°F
CNII2 13 mi31 min NNW 5.1G12 16°F 6°F
JAKI2 18 mi106 min N 8G12 18°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi52 min NNW 8G14 17°F 1033 hPa9°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 24 mi106 min NNW 6G11 16°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi66 min N 4.1G8 21°F 1033.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi46 min NW 8G8.9 13°F 1034.9 hPa (+0.4)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi46 min N 15G17 20°F 1036.1 hPa (+0.8)13°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last 24 hrNW8
G14
NW6
G10
NW7
G11
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G14
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G12
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G11
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G17
W12
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W5
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S12
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G21
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G28
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G17
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G21
SW7
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W6
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G17
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G18
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W5
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G14
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G17
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G22
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G22
S13
G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi2.9 hrsNW 810.00 miFair19°F-2°F39%1036.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi2.9 hrsNNE 710.00 miA Few Clouds18°F-2°F41%1035.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi2.9 hrsNNE 810.00 miA Few Clouds22°F-1°F36%1036.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW11NW11NW11NW14NW11NW9NW8NW10NW9NW13NW10NW11NW9N9NW9NW8NW8N8NW7N8NW8NW8NW4NW6
1 day agoS16
G25
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G28
SW17
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G26
SW11
G21
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W13W14
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2 days agoW7W4SW4SW4SW5SW4SW5SW6SW5W3S3S3S5S4S6S9S12S12S15S12
G19
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G31
S16
G24
S14
G26
S12
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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