Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gibraltar, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 6:50PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:28 AM EDT (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0088.000000t0000z-211014t2330z/ 652 Pm Edt Thu Oct 14 2021
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4181 8349 4195 8337 4196 8328 4225 8318 4232 8312 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4178 8334 time...mot...loc 2251z 256deg 28kt 4235 8301 4192 8315
LCZ423 Expires:202110142302;;688775 FZUS73 KDTX 142252 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 LCZ423-LEZ444-142302-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gibraltar, MI
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location: 42.04, -83.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160805 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 405 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

DISCUSSION.

Ongoing area of light rain will slide east and depart by mid- morning as midlevel height falls and CVA exit to the eastern Great Lakes. This process is being governed by an amplified longwave trough pivoting across the Great Lakes which finally ushers out the active baroclinic zone that led to several days of wet weather. Strong negative thickness advection ensuing through the day with 850mb temps tumbling from 10C last evening to around 0C by later this afternoon. This cold advection will activate the lake effect response with a healthy stratocumulus field enveloping the region this afternoon and possibly producing some isolated sprinkles. Additionally, steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in breezy conditions with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Highs in the mid to upper 50s today which for most areas will be the first day with highs below 60 since September 23.

The loss of daytime heating promotes scattering of clouds this evening which leads into a night of favorable cooling conditions. Lows in the 40s tonight may feel cool given the stretch of recent warm weather, but will be right around normal for mid-October. An active westerly gradient will keep winds from completely decoupling and prevent further cratering of temps. Meanwhile, the resident longwave trough will begin its departure by Sunday morning.

Confluent upper flow spills over the Great Lakes through the day Sunday as the upper jet moves in on the backside of the trough. Shortwaves within the energetic northwest flow with some lingering cold advection may be sufficient to trigger some showers mainly over the eastern Thumb on Sunday. Otherwise, dry weather and mostly sunny skies prevail with temperatures beginning a rebound with the exit of the thermal trough. Still breezy on Sunday with a relatively deep mixed layer developing within the dry ambient environment with a persistent northwest gradient.

Benign conditions dominate the early and mid week as tropospheric ridging expands eastward. The ridge axis itself is progged to stall just to our west on Monday and slowly dampen in response to a strong Pacific low tracking across the intermountain west. Northwest winds then back to the southwest by Tuesday and Wednesday which allows for a shift to a warm advective regime. This brings the return of warmer conditions with highs in the upper 60s both days. Active weather returns Wednesday night into Thursday as the aforementioned Pacific low reaches the Great Lakes bringing our next chance of rain. This system is advertised to bring the return of more seasonable conditions for Friday into the weekend.

MARINE.

Mainly showers through early today as the main upper trough axis and stronger cold front moves across the western and central Great Lakes. There will be a much greater lake response behind this front as much cooler air filters into the region. The cold air moving over the relatively warmer waters will bring a chance for waterspouts over the weekend. Winds will also increase with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots likely across Lake Huron Saturday. Gusts will be around 25 to 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine zones through today. Lingering precipitation with a chance for waterspouts continues across central and northern Lake Huron tonight before activity clears out during the day Sunday. High pressure then brings quieter marine conditions during the early week, though the cooler air keeps some elevated wind gusts to around 20 knots across Lake Huron on Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

AVIATION .

A large area of rain is currently lifting northward out of the Ohio River Valley towards Southeast Michigan. The rain is associated with organized differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurring ahead of a strong PV anomaly. A lot is happening to the thermodynamic environment as a good amount of cold advection is occurred between 2.0 and 10.0 kft agl. Lapse rates have steepened considerably in the lower troposphere which has knocked out the low column inversion. Ceilings have temporarily improved this evening with the loss of the strong static stability. Rain activity will overspread the area again as a strong ageostrophic response to dcva steepens the cold frontal slope. Bulk of data supports VFR rain shower activity tonight with differential near surface cold advection supporting some shallow convective instability and MVFR to potential pockets of IFR after 09Z. Post frontal northwest flow will support a well mixed boundary layer and VFR clouds Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet late tonight and Saturday. Low confidence during the mid to late evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . AA AVIATION . CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 15 mi89 min WNW 19G22 57°F
45165 25 mi49 min NW 18G21 58°F 67°F2 ft
TWCO1 25 mi49 min WNW 22G26 67°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 30 mi59 min NW 8.9G12 55°F 1007.6 hPa54°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 32 mi89 min W 7G8.9 57°F 1008.8 hPa (+0.0)
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi89 min NW 20G22 59°F 1007.3 hPa (-0.8)
CMPO1 35 mi119 min W 8.9G14 58°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 36 mi89 min WNW 18G21 59°F 65°F2 ft1007.3 hPa (-0.5)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi59 min NW 19G22 60°F 68°F1006.9 hPa54°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 46 mi49 min NW 16G19 60°F 68°F1006.8 hPa56°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI5 mi34 minNW 47.00 miRain56°F53°F89%1007.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi36 minWNW 74.00 miRain Fog/Mist56°F53°F90%1008.1 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI18 mi34 minW 12 G 1910.00 miLight Rain55°F52°F91%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr00S300NE3NE4NE4E5NE5N5N5N6N4NW7NW9N7N5NW4NW4NW6NW8NW6NW5
1 day agoS4S4S60S3S4S6S6S8S7S6S8S5SW7NW6000SW400SW4W30
2 days agoW3W30W4W4S5SW3S6S8S8S10S8S6S5SE40SE5SE8SE8S8SW6SW5S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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