Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:02PM Monday September 27, 2021 1:07 AM PDT (08:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 12:51PM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 803 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 26 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..Northern portion, S wind 25 kt. Brookings southward, S wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt late tonight. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 14 seconds...subsiding to 5 ft at 14 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Mon..Northern portion, S wind 15 to 20 kt. Brookings southward, S wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 10 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Mon night..S wind 15 kt northern portion and S 5 to 15 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 to 12 ft at 14 seconds...building to 12 to 14 ft at 14 seconds after midnight. Rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. SWell W 12 to 13 ft. Chance of showers through the day.
Tue night..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 11 to 12 ft...shifting to the nw 9 to 10 ft after midnight.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell nw 7 to 9 ft.
Wed night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell nw 5 to 6 ft.
Thu..NE wind 5 kt...backing to nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to N 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 4 ft. SWell W 7 to 8 ft.
Fri..N wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...easing to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft...subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. SWell nw 8 ft.
PZZ300 803 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 26 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Gusty south winds and steep to very seas are expected through early Monday morning. The steepest seas and strongest winds will occur north of cape blanco. Then, conditions hazardous to small craft are expected for all areas Monday morning through at least Tuesday night as steep west- northwest swell builds in.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 270339 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 839 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021

DISCUSSION. Gusty winds and slightly cooler temperatures today signaled a significant change in our weather. It will be windy again on the east side Monday, as the area waits until afternoon and evening for its cold frontal rainfall. Besides short term rain, the other most notable change will be cooler temperatures with much colder starts to the day than we have had recently, especially on the east side with 20s and lower 30s to be common.

Model agreement is very good through the short term, with light rain mainly west and north of Jackson County through tonight (except moderate amounts of around a half inch likely for Curry County. The main period of rain for our area will be late tonight through late Monday evening. The large majority of our area will receive at least a tenth of an inch of rain. Coastal amounts of 0.75 to 1.75 inches are expected with the higher amounts mainly in Curry County. Around an inch for eastern Douglas County and the southern Oregon Cascades, Around a half inch for the valleys of central Douglas, Josephine, and western Siskiyou Counties, and a tenth to a third of an inch elsewhere in our area.

The forecast was updated to make some fine tune adjustments to the late Monday night into Tuesday morning period, the tail end of this event on the east side while the first of a couple of very similar shortwave troughs brings a new round of light showers to the coast and from the Umpqua Divide (mainly Douglas County) northward. The second shortwave will continue light showers north of the Umpqua Divide Tuesday afternoon into early evening.

Shortwave ridging will provide a break Wednesday into Wednesday night while the next trough in the Gulf of Alaska sends the bulk of its associated energy and precipitation into western Canada and western Washington. There remain model differences regarding the timing and extent of weakening of the southern end of a cold front and trailing shortwave troughs late Wednesday night into Friday morning, but the best chance of a barely measureable amount of rain looks to be at the coast Thursday then inland Thursday night. The highest probability is for ridging to bring a warming and drying trend next weekend.

AVIATION. 27/00Z TAFs . Along the coast . Areas of MVFR cigs will develop this evening and become widespread as a front brings rain into the area. Conditions will then lower to widespread IFR cigs/vis with local LIFR cigs/vis late this evening through Monday morning. Additionally, expect low level wind shear to affect KOTH and areas along the coast north of Cape Blanco tonight. A mix of MVFR cigs/vis and local IFR conditions are expected to continue along the coast Monday afternoon Inland. Mountain obscuration, rain, and low ceilings will push inland by Monday morning, making its way to areas east of the Cascades by Monday afternoon. Areas of MVFR cigs are expected in the Umpqua Basin on Monday. -CC

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Sunday 26 September 2021 . A front is approaching the area, and south winds will increase through this evening. Mixed seas with northwest swell at 13 seconds and steep to very steep wind seas are expected through tonight. The general area with the strongest winds and steepest waves will likely occur north of Cape Blanco, with winds approaching gales north of Florence.

Behind the front on Monday, seas will remain elevated and steep into mid-week due to building west-northwest swell with another frontal passage Monday night. Thunderstorms will be possible over all waters north of Cape Mendocino Monday afternoon/evening, but will be increasingly possible over the waters north of Florence. -CC

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 240 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021/

DISCUSSION . There hasn't been a lot of change today regarding the overall forecast, which has remained fairly consistent over the past 24 hours or so. Solutions across the model suites remain in good agreement, and therefore, efforts today focused more on the details of the upcoming front, which will bring a round of much needed rain to our area.

This front, the main event for the week, is associated with a deep, broad upper level trough currently residing over the Gulf of Alaska. As the first front approaches, clouds and winds will increase through the rest of today, with rain gradually spreading into the coastline during the late afternoon and evening. The cold front will slow further and weaken as it approaches the coastline, keeping rainfall ongoing along the coast and the coastal range through tonight, with only a gradual and slow spread to the Cascade crest by morning. The upper level trough then catches up, reinvigorating the surface front and pushing it through the area Monday into Monday night, finally bringing precipitation to the rest of the forecast area. This system does not have quite the robust moisture inflow of last week's event, so rainfall amounts should not be as healthy, but it does have a similar, more westerly onshore vector, allowing for less downsloping and therefore more rain in the typically drier spots. Overall, precipitation amounts should be modest, but still enough to provide a much needed wetting rain to most, if not all, of the region.

Steady rain should come to an end Monday night, but with the trough overhead and moist onshore flow at the surface, showers are likely to continue through Tuesday afternoon. There is a possibility for some isolated thunder as the trough passes overhead Tuesday, mainly concentrated offshore, along the coast, and into the Umpqua Basin, but instability is expected to be weak, and confidence is low for all but the coastal waters, so some thunder remains mentioned offshore, but not inland. Also of note, snow levels are expected to lower to between 5000 and 6000 feet as the front passes, and with showers ongoing, the higher terrain of the Cascades, Siskiyous, and the East Side could easily see a changeover to snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. It is likely that as precipitation ends and skies begin to clear, we will be greeted with a couple of inches of fresh snow on the rim of Crater Lake and the higher peaks of the area.

Following the early week system, the region is expected to reside between broad troughing over the northeastern Pacific, and broad ridging over the central United States through the rest of the forecast period. Some of the coldest air of the season so far will arrive behind the front, and with skies clearing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, frost and freeze conditions will be a concern, mainly east of the Cascades, although the valleys of Siskiyou County and some outlying colder areas within the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys could be susceptible as well.

As the forecast area is likely to lie just along the western periphery of the ridge, any approaching systems for the latter half of the week should stay to our north, as is the case with a weak front on Thursday. The bulk of precipitation associated with that front will be focused more towards northern Oregon and Washington, leaving the bulk of our area dry. That being said, some light rain is possible along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin to the foothills of the Cascades, but amounts should be very light, if measurable at all.

For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, ridging is expected to remain in control. Have therefore kept the remainder of the forecasts period dry, with temperatures hovering right around or just above normal for early October. -BPN

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday 26 September 2021 . The main fire weather concern in the near term is gusty winds and low humidities east of the Cascades Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds on Sunday will be 30 to 35 knots at 7000 to 9000 feet above sea level. These winds will impact the higher terrain east of the Cascades. This, combined with low humidities in the afternoon and evening, will bring Red Flag Warning conditions to parts of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for fire weather zones 624, 625 and 285 this afternoon and evening. See RFWMFR for details.

Winds will ease within the valleys tonight, yet remain gusty over higher terrain over most locations through the overnight hours. Humidities should begin to recover overnight, so we're not concerned about red flag conditions persisting overnight under the more humid southwest flow.

This humid southwest flow will push humidities higher into Monday. We're still expecting windy conditions within southern Oregon and northern California throughout the day, but especially in the overnight hours. In addition to the wind, we'll star to see rain fall across the forecast area. Many locations will see wetting rain by Tuesday morning, yet the chances are lower east of the Cascades. -Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

DW/CC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi27 min S 18 G 19 52°F1015.2 hPa
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 21 mi49 min SSW 8 G 14 59°F 58°F1014.8 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 49 mi49 min SSW 20 G 25 56°F 53°F1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi71 minE 34.00 miRain Fog/Mist57°F57°F100%1015.1 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi71 minS 127.00 miOvercast59°F55°F87%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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2 days ago4CalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmS3SE9SE8SE54SE5S7S8SE5SE6CalmCalmE3SW3CalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:11 AM PDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:58 AM PDT     3.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:54 PM PDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:50 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:26 PM PDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.33.244.64.84.84.443.73.63.74.14.75.45.865.85.14.33.22.31.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:10 AM PDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:54 AM PDT     3.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:53 PM PDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:22 PM PDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.33.24.14.64.84.74.443.73.63.74.24.85.45.865.75.14.23.22.21.51.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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